NEUTRALNEUTRAL regime: Macro liquidity support has yet to overcome weak crypto flows and broad-based selling pressure.
The week is defined by a balance between improving global liquidity, persistent inflation, and negative ETF flows. BTC at 81050 remains above its long-term averages, but the drawdown from the peak, weak altcoin performance, and downside options hedging warrant caution. This mix favors selective, neutral positioning between support and resistance rather than a directional conviction.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · Liquidity Support
Global liquidity increased 0.12 weekly and 0.13 monthly, providing macro support for risk assets. However, the 0.008000000000000007 weekly rise in NFCI shows that the impulse from financial conditions is not uniformly supportive.
THEME 2 · Institutional Outflows
Total BTC ETF flow of -228.4 million and total ETH ETF flow of -320.1 million indicate weak institutional demand. Negative flows are limiting the transmission of macro liquidity support into crypto.
THEME 3 · Broadening Selloff
Losses across layer and thematic baskets are broad, with JUP's -26.2608 change highlighting fragility in rotation. BTC's more limited -3.2606 change points to defensive positioning.
MACRO REGIME
MACRO SCOREBOARD
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
N/A
N/A
US 10Y Yield
N/A%
N/A
2s10s SPREAD
N/A%
N/A
HY Credit Spread
N/A%
N/A
MOVE Index
N/A
N/A
VIX Index
N/A
N/A
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year) · series date 2026-08
What happened: In August 2026, core PCE was 3.01%, headline CPI was 3.69%, and the prior Michigan inflation-expectations reading was 4.7%.
What it means: Core PCE remaining at 3.01% creates near-term downside risk for rate-sensitive assets and BTC with 10 days until the 2026-10-28 FOMC; cautious positioning is warranted until it falls sustainably below 3.01%.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-10-18
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-10-09
What happened: Global liquidity, tracked as the Fed balance sheet, stands at $6.76T; the weekly change is 0.12 and the monthly change is 0.13, while NFCI is -0.499.
What it means: As liquidity expansion continues, short-term upside positioning in risk assets—especially Bitcoin and growth equities—is supported; however, NFCI's 0.008 weekly increase indicates that easing in financial conditions is losing momentum.
WHAT MATTERS NEXT
Next FOMC
Wed (10 days away)
Median Dot (2026)
4.10%
Date
Time (TRT)
Event
Country
Prev
Cons
Actual
22 Oct Thu
15:30
Unemployment Claims
USD
199K
200K
23 Oct Fri
10:15
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR
50.3
50.6
23 Oct Fri
10:15
French Flash Services PMI
EUR
51.4
50.8
23 Oct Fri
10:30
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR
53.8
53.5
23 Oct Fri
10:30
German Flash Services PMI
EUR
52.9
52.6
23 Oct Fri
16:45
Flash Manufacturing PMI
USD
57.0
55.5
23 Oct Fri
16:45
Flash Services PMI
USD
58.7
58.0
23 Oct Fri
17:00
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD
46.3
46.3
23 Oct Fri
17:00
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
USD
4.7%
N/A
What happened: US initial jobless claims are forecast at 200K, while US flash manufacturing PMI is forecast at 55.5, services PMI at 58.0, consumer sentiment at 46.3, and prior inflation expectations at 4.7%; the FOMC is 10 days away.
What it means: Within the 10-day window to the FOMC, the near-term direction for BTC and high-beta equities will depend on whether US PMI and inflation-expectations data beat or miss these forecasts, so risk positioning should remain cautious until the data surprise is known.
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
BTC × NDX
30G
+0.66
90G
+0.34
BTC × GOLD
30G
+0.21
90G
+0.48
BTC × DXY
30G
-0.16
90G
-0.32
BTC × US10Y
30G
-0.35
90G
-0.20
What happened: BTC's 30-day correlation with the NDX rose to 0.66, while BTC's year-to-date return was -8.662506667286511 as of 2026-10-18 and the NDX return was 15.795263111036103 as of 2026-10-16.
What it means: In the short term, risk appetite and technology equities remain key for BTC; if the NDX turns lower, the 0.66 correlation threshold signals persistent downside risk for BTC.
TURKEY DESK
BIST 100
N/A
N/A
USD/TRY
49.5163
▼ -0.01%
BIST 100 ($ Denom.)
N/A
N/A
CRYPTO FLOWS
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-10-18
BTC ETF
-228.4M
ETH ETF
-320.1M
Previous week
-678.9M
Context: BTC funding +0.0172% · OI w/w N/A
IBIT -165.4M · FBTC -60.2M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows: -320.1M · ETHA -299.0M · FETH +10.5M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$57.6B
What happened: In the latest week, total flows were -228.4M for BTC ETFs and -320.1M for ETH ETFs.
What it means: With ETH ETF outflows persisting, defensive short-term positioning in ETH is favored; a return to positive flows is the threshold to watch for risk appetite.
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-10-18
What happened: Total stablecoin supply declined to 304.594 on 18 October 2026, with USDT at 183.37 and USDC at 72.606.
What it means: While total supply remains below the 306.072 threshold, liquidity support for risk appetite in BTC and altcoins is likely to remain weak in the short term.
CONFLICTING SIGNALS
BTC funding rate
+0.0172%
⇆
25Δ risk reversal
-2.10%
Reading: Perpetual funding measures levered directional positioning; the risk reversal measures demand for optional protection. Positive funding against a negative risk reversal is a market that is long and hedged at once — the two price different horizons.
CRYPTO MARKET
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset
Price
1H
24H
7D
BTC
$81,050.00
▲ +0.14%
▼ -0.52%
▼ -3.26%
ETH
$2,361.57
▲ +0.15%
▼ -2.29%
▼ -7.14%
SOL
$102.04
▲ +0.04%
▼ -1.71%
▼ -9.09%
XRP
$1.2700
▲ +0.15%
▼ -1.89%
▼ -10.46%
TRX
$0.332359
▲ +0.03%
▼ -0.61%
▲ +0.30%
AVAX
$9.5100
▼ -0.01%
▼ -3.50%
▼ -12.99%
ROTATION
Sector Category
7D Basket Avg Return
Layer 1 Protocols
▼ -10.74%
DeFi Protocols
▼ -11.92%
AI & Decentralized Compute
▼ -11.17%
Meme Tokens
▼ -9.03%
What happened: All major themes declined in the sector rotation, with JUP posting the steepest loss at -26.2608, while TRX was the only notable asset in positive territory at 0.2995.
What it means: Risk appetite is weak; in the near term, BTC's relative resilience at -3.2606 supports defensive positioning in BTC over high-beta altcoins.
BTC REGIME
Mayer Multiple
1.118
Spot / 200d SMA
200WMA Distance
+21.3%
WMA: $66,835
Drawdown from ATH
-35.0%
ATH: $124,753
BTC Spot Price
$81,050
Real-time
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
What happened: Bitcoin trades at 81050, above its 200-week moving average of 66835.226953125 and -35.03 below its peak of 124752.53125.
What it means: Medium-term Bitcoin positioning can be maintained while price holds above the 200-day average at 72490.5569140625; a break below that threshold would confirm a negative trend and warrant risk reduction.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.1629%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.008%
24h High
-0.163%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
BTC Futures Basis
N/A
ETH Futures Basis
N/A
7D Avg Funding Rates
BTC 7D Avg
▲ +0.0172%
ETH 7D Avg
▲ +0.0076%
Open Interest w/w Change
BTC OI Change
186.72M
ETH OI Change
65.48M
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
-2.10%
Call IV - Put IV (30OCT26)
Large Options Expirations
Expiry Date
Total Notional
Max Pain Strike
19OCT26 (19 Oct 2026)
$225.9M
$82,000
20OCT26 (20 Oct 2026)
$151.4M
$81,500
What happened: BTC's 25-delta risk reversal for the 30OCT26 expiry is -2.1000000000000014, the Coinbase premium is -0.16291218971358276, and the 4-hour trend is Bearish.
What it means: Short-term BTC positioning should remain defensive; downside risk dominates below 84271.84, while 69474.1 is the support threshold to monitor.