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NOCASHFLOW
DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETINGlobal Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
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Mon, Jun 29 2026
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RISK-OFF
Geopolitical tensions ease at the surface, but persistent crypto ETF outflows and Extreme Fear signal a sustained risk-off environment.
Global markets are experiencing a partial relief rally following the US-Iran ceasefire, yet crypto assets remain under significant pressure. BTC trades at $60,135, down 6.1% over the past seven days, while total crypto market cap has slipped to $2.16 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index stands at a deeply bearish 12 (Extreme Fear), reflecting a broad reluctance among buyers to step in. On the macro front, the US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.37% while the VIX holds steady at 18.4 and the DXY softened marginally to 101.25. Although Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.1%, the Technology sector (XLK) fell 1.9% as defensive sectors like Health Care (XLV, +3.0%) led — a rotation pattern inconsistent with a full risk-on recovery. Key macro catalysts on the horizon include the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on July 2 (consensus: 114K) and ISM Manufacturing PMI on July 1 (consensus: 53.7), both of which will shape Fed rate path expectations.
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NASDAQ 100
29,696
▲ +1.12%
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DXY
101.2550
▼ -0.10%
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GOLD
$4,045
▼ -0.82%
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10Y UST
4.37%
▼ -0.46%
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VIX
18.4
▲ +0.16%
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BTC
$60,135
▼ -0.07%
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BTC.D
55.8%
—
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F&G INDEX
12
Extreme Fear
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TODAY'S CALENDAR
| Date | Time | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun Tue | 2:29 AM | German Prelim CPI MoM |
EUR | -0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 30 Jun Tue | 10:00 AM | CB Consumer Confidence |
USD | 93.1 | 94.2 | — |
| 30 Jun Tue | 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings |
USD | 7.62M | 7.28M | — |
| 01 Jul Wed | 5:00 AM | Core CPI Flash Estimate YoY |
EUR | 2.5% | 2.5% | — |
| 01 Jul Wed | 5:00 AM | CPI Flash Estimate YoY |
EUR | 3.2% | 3.0% | — |
| 01 Jul Wed | 8:15 AM | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
USD | 122K | 118K | — |
| 01 Jul Wed | 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
USD | 54.0 | 53.7 | — |
| 02 Jul Thu | 8:30 AM | Average Hourly Earnings MoM |
USD | 0.3% | 0.3% | — |
| 02 Jul Thu | 8:30 AM | Non-Farm Employment Change |
USD | 172K | 114K | — |
| 02 Jul Thu | 8:30 AM | Unemployment Rate |
USD | 4.3% | 4.3% | — |
| 02 Jul Thu | 8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 215K | 220K | — |
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
283.78 | ▲ +3.14% | ▼ -4.78% | ▼ -8.71% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
372.97 | ▲ +5.71% | ▼ -1.69% | ▼ -9.62% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
337.39 | ▼ -1.84% | ▼ -8.33% | ▼ -13.18% | |
AMZN Amazon |
232.69 | ▲ +2.50% | ▼ -4.79% | ▼ -14.41% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
192.53 | ▼ -1.64% | ▼ -8.62% | ▼ -9.33% | |
META Meta |
550.25 | ▲ +1.36% | ▼ -4.67% | ▼ -13.30% | |
TSLA Tesla |
379.71 | ▲ +1.22% | ▼ -5.19% | ▼ -13.77% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,045.20 | ▼ -0.82% | ▼ -3.27% | ▼ -10.09% | |
XAG Silver |
$58.10 | ▼ -1.89% | ▼ -11.33% | ▼ -23.19% | |
HG Copper |
$6.18 | ▲ +0.63% | ▼ -2.78% | ▼ -3.38% | |
NG Natural Gas |
$3.25 | ▲ +0.50% | ▼ -0.18% | ▼ -1.16% | |
CC Cocoa |
$5,025.00 | ▲ +0.22% | ▲ +11.05% | ▲ +22.59% | |
KC Coffee |
$271.95 | ▼ -5.16% | ▼ -1.82% | ▼ -0.84% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$73.58 | ▲ +2.21% | ▼ -5.55% | ▼ -21.48% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Health Care
XLV
▲ +3.03%
Real Estate
XLRE
▲ +1.46%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +0.92%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▲ +0.90%
Utilities
XLU
▲ +0.76%
Communication
XLC
▲ +0.57%
Financials
XLF
▲ +0.22%
Energy
XLE
▼ -0.46%
Materials
XLB
▼ -0.46%
Industrials
XLI
▼ -1.59%
Technology
XLK
▼ -1.87%
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.16T
BTC DOMINANCE
55.8%
FEAR & GREED
12
Extreme Fear
DERIVATIVES DESK
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Price at $60,135 is holding above support ($59,175), with resistance at $62,929.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.2550%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.139%
24h High
-0.255%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
0.00%
ETH Basis
0.00%
BTC funding rates remain modestly positive at +0.00175, suggesting that leveraged long positions have not yet been fully liquidated despite the ongoing price decline. ETH's elevated funding rate of +0.022 indicates relatively higher short-term speculative interest in ETH compared to BTC.
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
| BTC | ▲ +0.00% |
| ETH | ▲ +0.02% |
| SOL | — |
Open Interest (OI)
| BTC | 121.92M |
| ETH | 41.58M |
| SOL | 17.13M |
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
26 Jun 2026
Outflow
Total Flow
-444.5M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-444.5M
FBTC (Fidelity)
+0.0M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been negative for five consecutive trading sessions, with IBIT alone recording -$444.5 million in outflows as of June 26, reflecting a clear and accelerating institutional de-risking trend. Sustained negative ETF flows are a strong signal that institutional demand for BTC is contracting, reinforcing the sell-side pressure observed in spot markets.
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$60,135.00 | ▲ +0.52% | ▼ -0.07% | ▼ -6.12% |
ETH |
$1,580.62 | ▲ +0.56% | ▲ +0.16% | ▼ -9.40% |
XRP |
$1.0520 | ▲ +0.74% | ▲ +0.25% | ▼ -7.21% |
SOL |
$73.1800 | ▲ +0.72% | ▲ +2.54% | ▼ -0.68% |
TRX |
$0.323333 | ▼ -0.18% | ▲ +0.42% | ▼ -2.14% |
DOGE |
$0.072963 | ▲ +0.59% | ▼ -0.77% | ▼ -12.78% |
HYPE |
$62.7700 | ▲ +0.63% | ▼ -0.27% | ▼ -6.94% |
LINK |
$7.3400 | ▲ +0.66% | ▲ +0.56% | ▼ -8.06% |
AVAX |
$6.6000 | ▲ +1.19% | ▲ +4.14% | ▲ +5.72% |
SUI |
$0.693656 | ▲ +0.89% | ▲ +1.43% | ▼ -2.15% |
TON |
$1.6000 | ▲ +0.35% | ▲ +2.62% | ▼ -3.17% |
UNI |
$2.9600 | ▲ +1.14% | ▲ +1.08% | ▼ -1.57% |
AAVE |
$91.8100 | ▲ +0.65% | ▲ +1.86% | ▲ +21.75% |
PEPE |
$0.000002 | ▲ +1.28% | ▼ -0.86% | ▼ -16.69% |
RENDER |
$1.5600 | ▲ +0.63% | ▲ +0.14% | ▼ -7.07% |
JUP |
$0.212702 | ▲ +1.40% | ▼ -1.81% | ▲ +0.83% |
TOP STORIES
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Reuters · 05:07
Asia shares choppy as South Korea chip push steadies sentiment; Iran truce in focus - ReutersAsia shares choppy as South Korea chip push steadies sentiment; Iran truce in focus Reuters
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AI Insight: Choppy Asian equity markets stabilized partly by South Korea's semiconductor initiative align with BTC dominance holding at 55.8%, as investors within crypto rotate toward BTC as a relative safe haven while altcoins continue to underperform.
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Reuters · 05:02
Iran cyberattacks on Israel surged in 2026, Israeli cyber chief says - ReutersIran cyberattacks on Israel surged in 2026, Israeli cyber chief says Reuters
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AI Insight: The reported surge in Iranian cyberattacks on Israel underscores that geopolitical risk in the region is structural rather than episodic, contributing to the persistent negative Coinbase premium of -0.255 as global risk-aversion keeps US-based institutional demand subdued.
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Reuters · 02:56
Gold falls as Gulf tensions fuel inflation fears, Fed rate-hike bets - ReutersGold falls as Gulf tensions fuel inflation fears, Fed rate-hike bets Reuters
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AI Insight: Gold's 0.82% decline to $4,045 driven by Gulf tensions reigniting inflation fears and Fed rate-hike bets presents a nuanced challenge: if markets price in tighter monetary policy, BTC's inflation-hedge narrative faces near-term headwinds, consistent with the ongoing ETF outflow trend.
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