NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Fri, Jul 3 2026

NEUTRAL Recovery signals in crypto are emerging, but 'Extreme Fear' and a persistent negative Coinbase premium call for caution.

As of July 3, 2026, markets are painting a mixed picture heading into the long US holiday weekend. VIX has eased to 15.92, suggesting the fear barometer is calming, while DXY slips to 100.71, offering modest tailwinds for risk assets. The 10-year US Treasury yield holds steady at 4.37%, with the 2s10s spread remaining in positive territory at 20 basis points. On the crypto front, BTC is trading at $61,683, up 2.2% on the day, while ETH outperforms with a 6.1% gain to $1,719. Nevertheless, the Fear & Greed Index remains deep in Extreme Fear at 21, and BTC dominance sits at 55.7%. This week's US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data were critical inputs for shaping expectations around the Fed's July 29 FOMC meeting, where the median dot projection targets a rate of 3.8%.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,845

▲ +0.98%

DXY

100.7100

▼ -0.15%

GOLD

$4,196

▲ +2.02%

10Y UST

4.37%

▲ +0.00%

VIX

15.9

▼ -1.42%

BTC

$61,683

▲ +2.20%

BTC.D

55.7%

—

F&G INDEX

Extreme Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (26 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
30 Jun Tue	09:29	German Prelim CPI MoM	EUR	-0.2%	0.0%	—
30 Jun Tue	17:00	CB Consumer Confidence	USD	93.1	94.4	—
30 Jun Tue	17:00	JOLTS Job Openings	USD	7.62M	7.28M	—
01 Jul Wed	12:00	Core CPI Flash Estimate YoY	EUR	2.5%	2.5%	—
01 Jul Wed	12:00	CPI Flash Estimate YoY	EUR	3.2%	3.0%	—
01 Jul Wed	15:15	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	122K	118K	—
01 Jul Wed	17:00	ISM Manufacturing PMI	USD	54.0	53.8	—
02 Jul Thu	15:30	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	USD	0.3%	0.3%	—
02 Jul Thu	15:30	Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	172K	114K	—
02 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Rate	USD	4.3%	4.3%	—
02 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	219K	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	308.63	▲ +4.84%	▲ +12.17%	▼ -2.08%
MSFT Microsoft	390.49	▲ +1.62%	▲ +10.67%	▼ -11.52%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	359.91	▼ -0.36%	▲ +4.71%	▼ -0.48%
AMZN Amazon	242.67	▲ +0.40%	▲ +6.90%	▼ -5.40%
NVDA NVIDIA	194.83	▼ -1.39%	▼ -0.46%	▼ -12.46%
META Meta	582.90	▼ -4.90%	▲ +7.37%	▼ -2.37%
TSLA Tesla	393.45	▼ -7.49%	▲ +4.89%	▼ -7.15%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,195.80	▲ +2.02%	▲ +2.87%	▼ -5.43%
XAG Silver	$63.10	▲ +4.05%	▲ +6.56%	▼ -14.12%
HG Copper	$6.23	▲ +1.86%	▲ +1.41%	▼ -3.90%
NG Natural Gas	$3.26	▲ +1.85%	▲ +0.74%	▲ +1.28%
CC Cocoa	$4,949.00	▼ -1.14%	▼ -4.07%	▲ +20.47%
KC Coffee	$315.65	▼ -2.67%	▲ +9.30%	▲ +21.78%
BZ Brent Oil	$71.49	▼ -0.43%	▼ -0.69%	▼ -26.91%

S&P 500 Sectors

Health Care

XLV

▲ +2.63%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +2.21%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +2.03%

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.94%

Financials

XLF

▲ +1.53%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +1.13%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.78%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.30%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.13%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.82%

Technology

XLK

▼ -2.71%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.22T

▲ +2.20%

BTC DOMINANCE

55.7%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$85.1B

Analyst Note: The combined stablecoin market cap stands at $257.2 billion with a negligible 24-hour change of -0.17%, suggesting no large-scale rotation from stablecoins into crypto assets yet. SMH (Semiconductor ETF) dropped sharply by 4.5%, serving as a meaningful warning signal that risk appetite in the tech sector is under pressure.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$61,683

▲ +2.20%

Support Level

$59,776

Resistance Level

$61,975

Price at $61,683 is holding above support ($59,776), with resistance at $61,975.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1061%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.090%

24h High

-0.149%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC perpetual funding rates stand at a mild positive 0.021%, indicating no excessive long-side leverage buildup in the market. SOL's funding rate turning sharply negative at -0.33% is noteworthy and may signal short accumulation or long liquidations in the SOL derivatives market.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

39.48 ▼ -0.92

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.56

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0210%
ETH	▲ +0.0082%
SOL	▼ -0.3334%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	128.80M
ETH	37.28M
SOL	20.91M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Jul 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+223.5M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-40.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+166.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: The latest spot Bitcoin ETF data for July 2 shows a total net inflow of $223.5 million, with FBTC leading at $166 million while IBIT posted a modest outflow of -$40.4 million. While this marks the first meaningful positive signal after nine consecutive days of outflows, a single day of inflows is insufficient to declare a trend reversal.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+29.0M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+29.7M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$61,683.00	▼ -0.08%	▲ +2.20%	▲ +1.99%
ETH	$1,719.37	▲ +0.20%	▲ +6.06%	▲ +9.65%
XRP	$1.1000	▲ +0.10%	▲ +3.64%	▲ +5.63%
SOL	$80.9900	▼ -0.09%	▲ +3.49%	▲ +16.19%
TRX	$0.318940	▲ +0.08%	▲ +0.55%	▼ -1.04%
HYPE	$67.6200	▲ +0.78%	▲ +7.14%	▲ +6.26%
DOGE	$0.075022	▼ -0.19%	▲ +2.92%	▲ +0.56%
LINK	$7.7700	▲ +0.07%	▲ +3.93%	▲ +7.06%
TON	$1.6800	▲ +0.78%	▲ +4.35%	▲ +6.33%
SUI	$0.740458	▲ +0.19%	▲ +1.64%	▲ +6.54%

NATO leaders to gather in Ankara, aiming to smooth over tensions with Trump - Reuters

AI Insight: NATO leaders convening in Ankara to smooth over tensions with Trump is a potentially positive development for reducing geopolitical uncertainty, though concrete de-escalation steps are needed for any meaningful market impact. A reduction in geopolitical friction could help sustain VIX at the 15.92 level.

Reuters · 02:05

Oil prices little changed ahead of long US weekend as peace efforts hold - Reuters

AI Insight: The combination of the long US holiday weekend and ongoing peace efforts in the Middle East explains Brent crude's flat trading around $71.49. In a low-volume environment, stable oil prices remain a neutral data point for the Fed on the inflation front.

Reuters · 21:26

Blast at Damascus cafe kills nine, wounds 20, Syrian interior ministry says - Reuters

AI Insight: The blast at a Damascus cafe is a stark reminder that instability in Syria persists and regional risk premiums remain alive. Such geopolitical shock events tend to boost demand for safe-haven assets in the short term — consistent with gold's 2.0% rally to $4,196 today.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.