NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Sat, Jul 4 2026

NEUTRAL Short-term crypto recovery signals emerge, but Extreme Fear sentiment and negative funding rates call for continued caution.

As of July 4, 2026, markets are presenting a mixed picture. VIX has retreated to 16.15, marking its lowest reading of the week and signaling easing short-term volatility pressure. Meanwhile, DXY holds at 100.86 on a relatively soft footing, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 4.37%; the 2Y-10Y spread remains in positive territory at +20 basis points. On the crypto front, BTC is approaching weekly highs at $62,473 with total market cap at $2.25T. However, the Fear & Greed Index remains deep in Extreme Fear at 22, indicating that the price recovery has not yet translated into confidence-driven buying. On the macro calendar front, the Non-Farm Payrolls released Thursday, July 2, came in against a backdrop of a prior 172K reading versus a 114K forecast, a result that could reshape expectations for the Fed's easing path. With the next FOMC meeting 25 days away on July 29 and the Fed's median dot projection holding at 3.8%, a soft jobs print could meaningfully bolster rate cut expectations.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,902

▲ +1.17%

DXY

100.8570

▼ -0.00%

GOLD

$4,187

▲ +1.81%

10Y UST

4.37%

▲ +0.00%

VIX

16.1

▼ -2.65%

BTC

$62,473

▲ +1.29%

BTC.D

55.6%

—

F&G INDEX

Extreme Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (25 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
30 Jun Tue	09:29	German Prelim CPI MoM	EUR	-0.2%	0.0%	—
30 Jun Tue	17:00	CB Consumer Confidence	USD	93.1	94.4	—
30 Jun Tue	17:00	JOLTS Job Openings	USD	7.62M	7.28M	—
01 Jul Wed	12:00	Core CPI Flash Estimate YoY	EUR	2.5%	2.5%	—
01 Jul Wed	12:00	CPI Flash Estimate YoY	EUR	3.2%	3.0%	—
01 Jul Wed	15:15	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	122K	118K	—
01 Jul Wed	17:00	ISM Manufacturing PMI	USD	54.0	53.8	—
02 Jul Thu	15:30	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	USD	0.3%	0.3%	—
02 Jul Thu	15:30	Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	172K	114K	—
02 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Rate	USD	4.3%	4.3%	—
02 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	219K	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	308.63	▲ +4.84%	▲ +12.17%	▼ -2.08%
MSFT Microsoft	390.49	▲ +1.62%	▲ +10.67%	▼ -11.52%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	359.91	▼ -0.36%	▲ +4.71%	▼ -0.48%
AMZN Amazon	242.67	▲ +0.40%	▲ +6.90%	▼ -5.40%
NVDA NVIDIA	194.83	▼ -1.39%	▼ -0.46%	▼ -12.46%
META Meta	582.90	▼ -4.90%	▲ +7.37%	▼ -2.37%
TSLA Tesla	393.45	▼ -7.49%	▲ +4.89%	▼ -7.15%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,187.30	▲ +1.81%	▲ +2.66%	▼ -5.62%
XAG Silver	$62.81	▲ +3.58%	▲ +6.08%	▼ -14.51%
HG Copper	$6.22	▲ +1.79%	▲ +1.34%	▼ -3.97%
NG Natural Gas	$3.24	▲ +1.53%	▲ +0.43%	▲ +0.96%
CC Cocoa	$4,949.00	▼ -1.14%	▼ -4.07%	▲ +20.47%
KC Coffee	$315.65	▼ -2.67%	▲ +9.30%	▲ +21.78%
BZ Brent Oil	$72.13	▲ +0.46%	▲ +0.19%	▼ -26.25%

S&P 500 Sectors

Health Care

XLV

▲ +2.63%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +2.21%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +2.03%

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.94%

Financials

XLF

▲ +1.53%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +1.13%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.78%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.30%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.13%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.82%

Technology

XLK

▼ -2.71%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.25T

▲ +1.36%

BTC DOMINANCE

55.6%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$62.1B

Analyst Note: The combined stablecoin market cap sits at $257.1 billion, nearly flat with a 24-hour change of -0.04%, suggesting no fresh dollar liquidity is yet entering the crypto ecosystem. The SMH semiconductor ETF's -4.54% decline mirrors losses in NVDA and META within the Magnificent 7, underscoring continued pressure from the tech sector on broader risk appetite.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$62,473

▲ +1.29%

Support Level

$60,176

Resistance Level

$62,766

Price at $62,473 is holding above support ($60,176), with resistance at $62,766.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1542%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.087%

24h High

-0.154%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rate stands at -0.0027, meaning short position holders are paying long holders — a signal of short-term oversold conditions in perpetual markets. ETH funding has also flipped negative at -0.0006, reinforcing the view that the current price bounce may carry a short squeeze component.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

39.18 ▼ -0.15

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.56

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▼ -0.0027%
ETH	▼ -0.0006%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	118.92M
ETH	36.46M
SOL	20.15M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Jul 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+223.5M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-40.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+166.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of +$223.5M as of July 2, with FBTC leading at +$166M while IBIT saw a -$40.4M outflow, diverging negatively. Notably, this marks the first positive net flow day after a continuous outflow streak running from June 18 through July 1 — a critical inflection point to monitor as a potential signal of returning institutional demand.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+29.0M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+29.7M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$62,473.00	▲ +0.01%	▲ +1.29%	▲ +3.34%
ETH	$1,757.36	▲ +0.25%	▲ +2.41%	▲ +10.99%
XRP	$1.1400	▲ +0.66%	▲ +3.93%	▲ +7.99%
SOL	$82.5700	▲ +0.28%	▲ +1.79%	▲ +14.50%
TRX	$0.323775	▲ +0.25%	▲ +1.53%	▲ +1.09%
HYPE	$71.2800	▲ +0.08%	▲ +5.67%	▲ +12.28%
DOGE	$0.076824	▼ -0.00%	▲ +2.28%	▲ +1.64%
LINK	$7.9200	▲ +0.27%	▲ +2.06%	▲ +7.42%
TON	$1.8000	▲ +0.09%	▲ +7.92%	▲ +15.00%
SUI	$0.758538	▲ +0.34%	▲ +2.66%	▲ +7.01%

EXCLUSIVE: Iran exploring oil sales to Japan, buyers seek longer sanctions waiver, sources say - Reuters

AI Insight: Iran's exploration of oil sales to Japan, with buyers seeking extended sanctions waivers, signals a potential structural shift in Middle Eastern energy supply chains; this development serves as a supportive backdrop for Brent crude holding at $72.13 and adds a geopolitical risk premium layer to energy markets.

Reuters · 16:37

Two Romanian men jailed for stabbing Iranian journalist in London - Reuters

Reuters · 15:07

CMA CGM ship hit by missile in Hormuz strait may go for scrapping, CEO says - Reuters

AI Insight: The news that a CMA CGM vessel struck by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz may be scrapped is a tangible manifestation of shipping route risk in the region; historically, such incidents push freight premiums higher on commodity routes and drive safe-haven demand — consistent with gold's strong rally to $4,187 today.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.