NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Sun, Jul 5 2026

NEUTRAL Markets maintain cautious balance amid macro pressures and Middle East geopolitics.

Global markets are navigating a mixed session under the shadow of Iran's leadership transition and escalating regional geopolitical tensions. The VIX at 16.15 has eased 2.65%, yet still signals controlled uncertainty, while the DXY at 100.86 continues its weakening trend, providing partial support for risk assets. The US 10-Year Treasury Yield at 4.485% is rising, and the 2s10s spread turning positive at 31.5 basis points hints at a limited normalization in economic expectations. On the crypto front, the Fear & Greed Index remains deep in Extreme Fear at 23; BTC trades at $62,919 with a weekly gain of 4.66% while total crypto market cap stands at $2.26 trillion. The key calendar event this week is the FOMC Meeting Minutes on July 8, which could inject volatility as markets parse the Fed's rate path signals. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI due July 6 (forecast: 54.2) will be closely watched for growth momentum.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,902

▲ +1.17%

DXY

100.8600

▼ -0.52%

GOLD

$4,187

▲ +1.81%

10Y UST

4.49%

▲ +0.22%

VIX

16.1

▼ -2.65%

BTC

$62,919

▲ +0.64%

BTC.D

55.7%

—

F&G INDEX

Extreme Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (24 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
06 Jul Mon	17:00	ISM Services PMI	USD	54.5	54.2	—
08 Jul Wed	21:00	FOMC Meeting Minutes	USD	—	—	—
09 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	218K	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	308.63	▲ +4.84%	▲ +12.17%	▼ -2.08%
MSFT Microsoft	390.49	▲ +1.62%	▲ +10.67%	▼ -11.52%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	359.91	▼ -0.36%	▲ +4.71%	▼ -0.48%
AMZN Amazon	242.67	▲ +0.40%	▲ +6.90%	▼ -5.40%
NVDA NVIDIA	194.83	▼ -1.39%	▼ -0.46%	▼ -12.46%
META Meta	582.90	▼ -4.90%	▲ +7.37%	▼ -2.37%
TSLA Tesla	393.45	▼ -7.49%	▲ +4.89%	▼ -7.15%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,187.30	▲ +1.81%	▲ +2.66%	▼ -5.62%
XAG Silver	$62.81	▲ +3.58%	▲ +6.08%	▼ -14.51%
HG Copper	$6.22	▲ +1.79%	▲ +1.34%	▼ -3.97%
NG Natural Gas	$3.24	▲ +1.53%	▲ +0.43%	▲ +0.96%
CC Cocoa	$5,123.00	▲ +2.34%	▼ -0.70%	▲ +24.71%
KC Coffee	$287.45	▼ -11.36%	▼ -0.47%	▲ +10.90%
BZ Brent Oil	$72.13	▲ +0.46%	▲ +0.19%	▼ -26.25%

S&P 500 Sectors

Health Care

XLV

▲ +2.63%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +2.21%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +2.03%

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.94%

Financials

XLF

▲ +1.53%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +1.13%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.78%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.30%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.13%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.82%

Technology

XLK

▼ -2.71%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.26T

▲ +0.38%

BTC DOMINANCE

55.7%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$51.7B

DERIVATIVES DESK

$62,919

▲ +0.64%

Support Level

$60,395

Resistance Level

$63,226

Price at $62,919 is holding above support ($60,395), with resistance at $63,226.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1874%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.071%

24h High

-0.187%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rate remains positive at 0.009%, while SOL funding has turned sharply negative at -0.050%, indicating elevated short positioning in SOL perpetuals and raising the risk of a short squeeze. ETH funding at a moderate 0.0068% reflects a more balanced futures environment for Ethereum.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

39.68 ▲ +0.65

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.56

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0090%
ETH	▲ +0.0068%
SOL	▼ -0.0499%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	122.48M
ETH	40.46M
SOL	21.12M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Jul 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+223.5M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-40.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+166.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows marked a significant reversal on July 2 with +$223.5 million in total inflows after a prolonged streak of outflows, with FBTC alone recording +$166 million. Notably, IBIT still posted an outflow of -$40.4 million on the same day, suggesting product-level divergence in institutional demand and raising questions about the sustainability of the overall trend.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+29.0M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+29.7M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$62,919.00	▲ +0.23%	▲ +0.64%	▲ +4.66%
ETH	$1,767.37	▲ +0.20%	▲ +0.53%	▲ +12.33%
XRP	$1.1400	▲ +0.09%	▼ -0.65%	▲ +8.60%
SOL	$80.4400	▲ +0.04%	▼ -2.47%	▲ +13.44%
TRX	$0.324640	▼ -0.01%	▲ +0.27%	▲ +1.09%
HYPE	$68.5700	▲ +0.11%	▼ -3.74%	▲ +10.51%
DOGE	$0.076010	▲ +0.21%	▼ -1.04%	▲ +3.55%
LINK	$7.9100	▲ +0.28%	▼ -0.03%	▲ +8.62%
TON	$1.7700	▼ -0.46%	▼ -1.74%	▲ +14.31%
SUI	$0.744889	▲ +0.23%	▼ -1.66%	▲ +9.56%

Three sons of Iran's slain leader Khamenei appear at funeral, not his successor - Reuters

AI Insight: The appearance of Khamenei's sons at the funeral—rather than a clear successor—underscores that Iran's leadership transition remains unresolved, keeping the geopolitical risk premium alive in the Middle East and sustaining upward pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold, which is already up 1.81% on the day to $4,187.

Reuters · 18:35

Photos of the week - Reuters

Reuters · 16:25

India withdraws gas curbs as Middle East LNG supply resumes - Reuters

AI Insight: India's withdrawal of gas restrictions following the resumption of Middle East LNG supply is a direct de-escalation signal for energy markets; this development alleviates upward pressure on natural gas prices and is consistent with Brent crude's subdued performance around $72.13.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.