NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Mon, Jul 6 2026

RISK-OFF Fear index in 'Extreme Fear' territory, Coinbase premium negative, and BTC technicals trending bearish.

Global markets are navigating a multi-layered risk-off environment as of July 6, 2026. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains deep in 'Extreme Fear' at 24, while BTC struggles to hold $62,634 with the 4-hour chart maintaining a bearish bias and key resistance sitting at $63,340. On the macro front, the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 4.49%, while VIX remains relatively contained at 16.3 and DXY edges up to 101.1. The week's most pivotal macro event is the July 8 FOMC Meeting Minutes, which markets will scrutinize for clues on the Fed's rate trajectory; the Fed's 2026 median dot sits at 3.8%, above current market pricing, keeping rate uncertainty alive for risk assets. Today's ISM Services PMI at 17:00 (forecast: 54.2) is the near-term volatility trigger to watch. Total crypto market cap holds at $2.25 trillion while BTC dominance at 55.7% signals that rotation into altcoins has yet to materialize in earnest.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,855

▲ +1.01%

DXY

101.0800

▲ +0.22%

GOLD

$4,150

▲ +0.89%

10Y UST

4.49%

▲ +0.22%

VIX

16.3

▲ +0.99%

BTC

$62,634

▲ +0.15%

BTC.D

55.7%

—

F&G INDEX

Extreme Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (23 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
06 Jul Mon	17:00	ISM Services PMI	USD	54.5	54.2	—
08 Jul Wed	21:00	FOMC Meeting Minutes	USD	—	—	—
09 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	218K	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D	Trend
AAPL Apple	308.63	▲ +4.84%	▲ +12.17%	▼ -2.08%
MSFT Microsoft	390.49	▲ +1.62%	▲ +10.67%	▼ -11.52%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	359.91	▼ -0.36%	▲ +4.71%	▼ -0.48%
AMZN Amazon	—	▲ +0.00%	▲ +0.00%	▲ +0.00%	—
NVDA NVIDIA	194.83	▼ -1.39%	▼ -0.46%	▼ -12.46%
META Meta	582.90	▼ -4.90%	▲ +7.37%	▼ -2.37%
TSLA Tesla	393.45	▼ -7.49%	▲ +4.89%	▼ -7.15%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,149.50	▲ +0.89%	▲ +1.74%	▼ -6.47%
XAG Silver	$62.28	▲ +2.70%	▲ +5.17%	▼ -15.24%
HG Copper	$6.22	▲ +1.69%	▲ +1.25%	▼ -4.06%
NG Natural Gas	$3.23	▲ +1.10%	▲ +0.00%	▲ +0.53%
CC Cocoa	$5,287.00	▲ +6.83%	▲ +5.44%	▲ +29.84%
KC Coffee	$306.75	▼ -2.82%	▲ +6.97%	▲ +21.20%
BZ Brent Oil	$71.67	▼ -0.18%	▼ -0.44%	▼ -26.73%

S&P 500 Sectors

Health Care

XLV

▲ +2.63%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +2.21%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +2.03%

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.94%

Financials

XLF

▲ +1.53%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +1.13%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.78%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.30%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.13%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.82%

Technology

XLK

▼ -2.71%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.25T

▲ +0.08%

BTC DOMINANCE

55.7%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$54.9B

DERIVATIVES DESK

$62,634

▲ +0.15%

Support Level

$60,241

Resistance Level

$63,341

Price at $62,634 is holding above support ($60,241), with resistance at $63,341.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0847%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.078%

24h High

-0.113%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

ETH funding rate stands at a negative -0.01 while SOL's funding rate is deeply negative at -0.70, signaling elevated short positioning or speculative selling pressure in both assets. BTC's funding rate remains mildly positive at +0.0083, indicating that the cost of holding long positions has not yet reached a level that would trigger forced liquidations.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

38.87 ▼ -0.52

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.55

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0083%
ETH	▼ -0.0100%
SOL	▼ -0.6994%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	123.43M
ETH	40.75M
SOL	19.71M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Jul 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+223.5M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-40.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+166.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows showed a notable reversal on July 2nd: while IBIT recorded -$40.4M in outflows, FBTC attracted a strong +$166M inflow, pushing total net flows to a positive +$223.5M. However, given the persistent and heavy outflow trend throughout June (worst single day: -$691.7M), it remains unclear whether this one-day reversal marks a genuine trend change or merely a temporary relief.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+29.0M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+29.7M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$62,634.00	▼ -0.37%	▲ +0.15%	▲ +4.45%
ETH	$1,756.19	▼ -0.50%	▲ +0.21%	▲ +11.27%
XRP	$1.1300	▼ -0.51%	▲ +0.28%	▲ +8.28%
SOL	$80.1600	▼ -0.18%	▲ +0.37%	▲ +10.35%
TRX	$0.326498	▼ -0.15%	▲ +0.56%	▲ +0.89%
HYPE	$69.8500	▼ -0.33%	▲ +1.88%	▲ +11.68%
DOGE	$0.076644	▼ -0.30%	▲ +1.56%	▲ +5.32%
LINK	$7.8900	▼ -0.58%	▲ +0.30%	▲ +8.25%
TON	$1.7600	▲ +0.17%	▲ +1.12%	▲ +10.34%
SUI	$0.736944	▼ -0.38%	▼ -0.26%	▲ +7.11%

World absorbs historic Iran war oil supply loss, but depleted stocks bring risks - Reuters

AI Insight: While the global economy has absorbed the historic oil supply loss from the Iran war, depleted inventory levels are keeping Brent crude under pressure around $71.7 and limiting the energy sector's recovery (XLE: +0.78%); this dynamic keeps inflation expectations and, by extension, uncertainty around the Fed's rate path alive heading into the July 8 FOMC minutes.

Reuters · 06:09

NATO Ankara summit: who's going and what to expect - Reuters

AI Insight: The convening of NATO's Ankara summit signals that geopolitical risk premiums remain firmly on the agenda; historically, elevated geopolitical uncertainty drives demand for safe-haven assets, consistent with gold's continued advance to $4,149.5 today.

Reuters · 04:32

Morning Bid: Samsung to serve chip taster for earnings feast - Reuters

AI Insight: Samsung's pre-earnings chip commentary aligns with SMH's sharp -4.5% decline today; weakness in the semiconductor sector is weighing on NVIDIA (-1.4%) and reinforcing negative risk sentiment around AI and crypto mining hardware capital expenditure cycles.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.