NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Tue, Jul 7 2026

NEUTRAL Geopolitical tensions and negative funding rates keep markets cautious, while ETF inflows support a tentative recovery.

BTC holds at $62,991, preserving a weekly gain of +5.98% while the 24-hour change remains nearly flat. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stays deep in Fear territory at 27, signaling limited retail participation. BTC dominance stands at a firm 55.77% with total crypto market cap at $2.27T. On the macro front, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.485%, continuing to pressure risk assets, while VIX at 15.83 remains relatively subdued even as Nasdaq 100 Futures pulled back 0.85%. FOMC Meeting Minutes due Wednesday, July 8 represent the week's most critical macro event; any clues on the Fed's rate-cut timeline could set the near-term market direction. On the geopolitical front, explosions in Damascus during Macron's visit and Iran's missile attack on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping energy supply risks and global risk appetite in focus.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,687

▼ -0.85%

DXY

100.9290

▲ +0.08%

GOLD

$4,141

▼ -0.35%

10Y UST

4.49%

▲ +0.22%

VIX

15.8

▲ +1.67%

BTC

$62,991

▲ +0.25%

BTC.D

55.8%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (22 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
06 Jul Mon	17:00	ISM Services PMI	USD	54.5	54.2	—
08 Jul Wed	21:00	FOMC Meeting Minutes	USD	—	—	—
09 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	218K	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	312.66	▲ +1.31%	▲ +10.18%	▲ +0.77%
MSFT Microsoft	386.74	▼ -0.96%	▲ +3.69%	▼ -9.50%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	366.46	▲ +1.82%	▲ +8.62%	▲ +2.14%
AMZN Amazon	244.16	▲ +0.61%	▲ +4.93%	▼ -2.34%
NVDA NVIDIA	195.55	▲ +0.37%	▲ +1.57%	▼ -8.94%
META Meta	600.29	▲ +2.98%	▲ +9.09%	▼ -3.55%
TSLA Tesla	419.77	▲ +6.69%	▲ +10.55%	▼ -0.93%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,140.70	▼ -0.35%	▲ +2.94%	▼ -7.49%
XAG Silver	$61.44	▼ -0.78%	▲ +5.61%	▼ -16.72%
HG Copper	$6.23	▲ +0.84%	▲ +2.17%	▼ -4.32%
NG Natural Gas	$3.29	▲ +1.39%	▲ +3.43%	▼ -1.38%
CC Cocoa	$5,602.00	▲ +13.19%	▲ +11.73%	▲ +37.57%
KC Coffee	$328.80	▼ -9.66%	▲ +12.95%	▲ +33.04%
BZ Brent Oil	$72.90	▲ +1.26%	▼ -0.34%	▼ -23.29%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

▲ +1.65%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.93%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.90%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.76%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.56%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.06%

Energy

XLE

▼ -0.17%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.87%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -1.01%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -1.05%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -1.09%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.27T

▲ +0.18%

BTC DOMINANCE

55.8%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$88.4B

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread at +34.5 bps in positive territory signals ongoing yield curve normalization. The combined stablecoin market cap at $257.3B with near-zero 24-hour change indicates that dry powder has not yet been actively deployed into crypto. The SMH Semiconductor ETF's +2.03% gain confirms sustained institutional interest in the technology sector.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$62,991

▲ +0.25%

Support Level

$60,425

Resistance Level

$63,875

Price at $62,991 is holding above support ($60,425), with resistance at $63,875.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0825%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.063%

24h High

-0.107%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rate stands at -0.0036 and ETH funding rate at a notably negative -0.0167, indicating that short positions dominate perpetual futures markets and participants are actively hedging downside risk. This persistent negative funding environment also raises the probability of a short squeeze if spot demand accelerates.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

38.80 ▼ -0.15

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.55

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▼ -0.0036%
ETH	▼ -0.0167%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	122.49M
ETH	42.74M
SOL	20.64M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

06 Jul 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+265.7M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+209.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+9.7M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: As of July 6 data, IBIT recorded +$209.4M and FBTC +$9.7M in inflows, bringing total spot BTC ETF flows to +$265.7M — a 'Strong Inflow' signal. This marks the first meaningful reversal after a prolonged streak of consecutive outflows since June 22, suggesting institutional buying appetite is returning to the market.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

06 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+20.7M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+23.3M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.0M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$62,991.00	▼ -0.08%	▲ +0.25%	▲ +5.98%
ETH	$1,768.11	▼ -0.09%	▲ +0.25%	▲ +11.11%
XRP	$1.1200	▼ -0.24%	▼ -1.50%	▲ +7.45%
SOL	$81.3100	▼ -0.16%	▲ +1.17%	▲ +9.90%
TRX	$0.329126	▼ -0.01%	▲ +0.69%	▲ +3.17%
HYPE	$70.7200	▲ +0.17%	▲ +0.81%	▲ +7.89%
DOGE	$0.074752	▼ -0.31%	▼ -2.86%	▲ +3.44%
LINK	$7.8900	▼ -0.37%	▼ -0.49%	▲ +8.24%
TON	$1.6600	▼ -0.96%	▼ -4.99%	▲ +4.19%
SUI	$0.736900	▼ -0.22%	▼ -0.37%	▲ +5.90%

Explosions heard in Damascus during Macron visit, security source says - Reuters

AI Insight: Explosions heard in Damascus during Macron's visit signal an escalation in Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, which historically triggers short-term risk-off moves and a flight to gold and energy assets. While the current VIX level of 15.83 suggests markets have not yet priced in this risk, the situation warrants close monitoring.

Reuters · 06:01

Saudi Arabia slices crude oil prices, but is it enough? - Reuters

AI Insight: Saudi Arabia's crude oil price cut reflects market share concerns and demand weakness within OPEC+; Brent crude trading at $72.90 and down 23.3% over the past 30 days underscores the depth of this pressure. The energy sector's -0.17% underperformance today suggests the price cut has failed to fully restore investor confidence.

Reuters · 05:06

Saudi oil price cut unlikely to convince sated Asia buyers, traders say - Reuters

AI Insight: Reports that Asian buyers remain reluctant to absorb Saudi oil despite the price cut confirm structural weakness in global crude demand. This makes it increasingly difficult for Brent to defend the $72.90 price level and threatens the fiscal balances of major energy-exporting nations.

NOCASHFLOW bulletin.

Read on Web

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.