NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
Wed, Jul 8 2026
RISK-OFF Escalating US-Iran tensions and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have brought geopolitical risk premium back to the forefront.

Global markets are trading under heavy geopolitical pressure today as US strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory attacks on targets in Bahrain and Kuwait pushed Middle East tensions past a critical threshold. BTC holds a 7-day gain of +7.1% but slipped -0.35% over the past 24 hours to $62,822, with the Fear & Greed Index firmly in Extreme Fear (20) territory. On the macro side, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.53% while VIX at 16.43 looks deceptively calm — the Energy sector (XLE +2.84%) and Brent crude ($75.79, +2.20%) are already pricing in a geopolitical risk premium. Tonight's FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 ET represent the session's key macro event; any hawkish signals on the rate path could further dampen risk appetite. The DXY at 100.97 remains relatively soft, and tomorrow's Unemployment Claims will also be closely watched.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS
KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
  • Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
  • Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact
KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
  • Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
  • Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share
NASDAQ 100
29,401
▲ +0.03%
DXY
100.9680
▼ -0.17%
GOLD
$4,136
▼ -0.23%
10Y UST
4.53%
▲ +0.98%
VIX
16.4
▲ +1.86%
BTC
$62,822
▼ -0.35%
BTC.D
56.1%
—
F&G INDEX
20
Extreme Fear
TODAY'S CALENDAR
Next FOMC
Wed (21 days away)
 Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
Date Time (TRT) Event Country Prev Cons Actual
06 Jul Mon 17:00
ISM Services PMI
 USD 54.5 54.2 —
08 Jul Wed 21:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes
 USD — — —
09 Jul Thu 15:30
Unemployment Claims
 USD 215K 218K —
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
AAPL Apple
 310.66 ▼ -0.64% ▲ +10.26% ▼ -0.18%
MSFT Microsoft
 388.84 ▲ +0.54% ▲ +5.50% ▼ -9.16%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)
 367.03 ▲ +0.16% ▲ +3.78% ▼ -1.33%
AMZN Amazon
 245.98 ▲ +0.75% ▲ +2.43% ▼ -3.08%
NVDA NVIDIA
 196.93 ▲ +0.71% ▲ +1.01% ▼ -9.94%
META Meta
 615.58 ▲ +2.55% ▲ +9.42% ▼ -1.82%
TSLA Tesla
 402.90 ▼ -4.02% ▼ -2.17% ▼ -3.72%
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
XAU Gold
 $4,135.60 ▼ -0.23% ▲ +2.80% ▼ -4.65%
XAG Silver
 $61.17 ▲ +0.38% ▲ +2.84% ▼ -11.28%
HG Copper
 $6.17 ▼ -0.02% ▼ -0.36% ▼ -1.49%
NG Natural Gas
 $3.30 ▲ +0.98% ▲ +0.67% ▲ +2.11%
CC Cocoa
 $5,667.00 ▲ +1.16% ▲ +15.77% ▲ +42.93%
KC Coffee
 $331.60 ▼ -8.89% ▲ +13.91% ▲ +34.17%
BZ Brent Oil
 $75.79 ▲ +2.20% ▲ +3.94% ▼ -18.58%
S&P 500 Sectors
Energy
XLE
▲ +2.84%
Health Care
XLV
▲ +1.53%
Real Estate
XLRE
▲ +1.35%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +0.90%
Utilities
XLU
▲ +0.88%
Communication
XLC
▲ +0.73%
Financials
XLF
▼ -0.16%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▼ -0.53%
Materials
XLB
▼ -0.90%
Industrials
XLI
▼ -1.71%
Technology
XLK
▼ -2.39%
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.25T
▼ -0.90%
BTC DOMINANCE
56.1%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$74.0B
Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread at +39.9 bps remains positive, indicating continued curve normalization and limited near-term recession fears. Stablecoin combined market cap holds steady at $257.4B, while the semiconductor ETF SMH dropped -3.78%, highlighting fragility in the technology sector.
DERIVATIVES DESK
$62,822 ▼ -0.35%
Support Level
$60,604
Resistance Level
$63,791
Price at $62,822 is holding above support ($60,604), with resistance at $63,791.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.0818%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.056%
24h High
-0.107%
24h Low
08:0017:0002:0012:0021:0007:00 +0.162%0-0.162%
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
20 EXTREME FEAR
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
0.00%
ETH Basis
0.00%
BTC funding rate stands at a positive 0.0075%, slightly elevated but not signaling extreme leverage; however, in a geopolitical shock scenario, long positions could be unwound rapidly. ETH funding at 0.0032% is more subdued.
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$72,000
Deribit DVOL Index
39.25 ▲ +0.47
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.56
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
BTC▲ +0.0075%
ETH▲ +0.0032%
SOL—
Open Interest (OI)
BTC113.55M
ETH41.01M
SOL21.08M
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
07 Jul 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+21.5M
IBIT (BlackRock)
+54.8M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-24.9M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
23 Jun25 Jun29 Jun01 Jul06 Jul07 Jul +$692M0-$692M
Analyst Note: As of July 7, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of +$21.5M; IBIT remained positive at +$54.8M while FBTC saw outflows of -$24.9M. Following weeks of heavy outflows through late June, the recovery on July 6-7 could signal early buying pressure — but the sustainability of ETF inflows remains uncertain given the current geopolitical backdrop.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
07 Jul 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+26.9M
ETHA (BlackRock)
+26.9M
FETH (Fidelity)
+0.0M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset Price 1H 24H 7D
BTC 
 $62,822.00 ▲ +0.35% ▼ -0.35% ▲ +7.09%
ETH 
 $1,754.39 ▲ +0.24% ▼ -0.87% ▲ +11.51%
XRP 
 $1.0930 ▲ +0.22% ▼ -3.00% ▲ +4.17%
SOL 
 $78.1600 ▼ -0.01% ▼ -4.03% ▲ +5.38%
TRX 
 $0.329351 ▲ +0.12% ▲ +0.05% ▲ +4.14%
HYPE 
 $68.2500 ▲ +0.22% ▼ -3.32% ▲ +4.81%
DOGE 
 $0.072364 ▲ +0.47% ▼ -3.45% ▲ +1.45%
LINK 
 $7.6900 ▲ +0.28% ▼ -2.70% ▲ +5.88%
TON 
 $1.5900 ▼ -0.37% ▼ -5.58% ▲ +1.85%
SUI 
 $0.716942 ▲ +0.47% ▼ -2.82% ▲ +3.17%
TOP STORIES
Reuters · 06:16

New US attacks on Iran were absolutely necessary, NATO chief says - Reuters
AI Insight: NATO's Secretary General characterizing US strikes on Iran as 'absolutely necessary' signals coordinated Western alignment against Iran, which could sustain the geopolitical risk premium for an extended period — supporting safe-haven demand for gold and the USD while weighing on risk assets including crypto.
Reuters · 06:13

Iran targets sites in Bahrain, Kuwait after wave of US strikes - Reuters
AI Insight: Iran's strikes on targets in Bahrain and Kuwait mark a geographic escalation of the conflict into Gulf states, raising risks to regional energy infrastructure and fueling Brent's upward move while reinforcing pressure on risk assets including BTC, which is already trading below its 4H resistance at $63,791.
Reuters · 05:20

Four oil and gas tankers turn back from Hormuz strait after vessel attacks - Reuters
AI Insight: Four tankers turning back from the Strait of Hormuz makes the energy supply-chain disruption risk tangible; natural gas rising +0.98% and Brent reaching $75.79 are direct market reflections of these concerns.

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