NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
Thu, Jul 9 2026
NEUTRAL Markets seek neutral equilibrium caught between chip euphoria and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Markets are navigating conflicting signals today: the semiconductor rally led by NVIDIA's +3.65% surge and SMH ETF's +1.99% gain partially support risk appetite, while geopolitical uncertainty stemming from U.S. strikes on Iran and Trump's halt of trade with Spain keep nerves on edge. On the macro front, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues climbing to 4.57%, while the VIX holds relatively calm at 16.73; the DXY edges lower to 100.93, providing a tailwind for gold and commodities. In crypto, Bitcoin holds around $62,860, but the Fear & Greed Index at 22 (Extreme Fear) signals highly fragile investor sentiment. BTC dominance remains firm at 56.1% with total crypto market cap near $2.25 trillion. Key events this week include the FOMC Meeting Minutes (July 8) and Unemployment Claims (July 9); with the next Fed meeting just 20 days away, any hawkish signals in the minutes could directly pressure risk assets.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS
KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
  • Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
  • Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact
KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
  • Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
  • Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share
NASDAQ 100
29,674
▲ +0.70%
DXY
100.9260
▼ -0.12%
GOLD
$4,122
▲ +1.25%
10Y UST
4.57%
▲ +0.88%
VIX
16.7
▼ -1.01%
BTC
$62,860
▲ +1.41%
BTC.D
56.1%
—
F&G INDEX
22
Extreme Fear
TODAY'S CALENDAR
Next FOMC
Wed (20 days away)
 Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
Date Time (TRT) Event Country Prev Cons Actual
06 Jul Mon 17:00
ISM Services PMI
 USD 54.5 54.2 —
08 Jul Wed 21:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes
 USD — — —
09 Jul Thu 15:30
Unemployment Claims
 USD 215K 218K —
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
AAPL Apple
 313.39 ▲ +0.88% ▲ +8.30% ▲ +1.97%
MSFT Microsoft
 383.34 ▼ -1.41% ▲ +2.77% ▼ -8.00%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)
 361.92 ▼ -1.39% ▲ +1.27% ▼ -1.73%
AMZN Amazon
 243.62 ▼ -0.96% ▲ +2.22% ▼ -0.98%
NVDA NVIDIA
 204.12 ▲ +3.65% ▲ +2.01% ▼ -0.48%
META Meta
 603.12 ▼ -2.02% ▲ +7.07% ▲ +1.80%
TSLA Tesla
 394.06 ▼ -2.19% ▼ -6.31% ▲ +0.78%
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
XAU Gold
 $4,121.80 ▲ +1.25% ▲ +1.32% ▼ -4.94%
XAG Silver
 $59.71 ▲ +2.65% ▼ -0.63% ▼ -12.74%
HG Copper
 $6.22 ▲ +2.72% ▲ +1.56% ▼ -1.75%
NG Natural Gas
 $3.22 ▲ +0.16% ▼ -0.09% ▲ +2.22%
CC Cocoa
 $5,959.00 ▲ +5.15% ▲ +19.13% ▲ +58.40%
KC Coffee
 $301.95 ▼ -6.88% ▼ -6.89% ▲ +22.79%
BZ Brent Oil
 $77.28 ▼ -0.95% ▲ +7.98% ▼ -18.01%
S&P 500 Sectors
Energy
XLE
▲ +1.76%
Technology
XLK
▲ +1.24%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▼ -0.55%
Utilities
XLU
▼ -0.74%
Industrials
XLI
▼ -1.07%
Health Care
XLV
▼ -1.30%
Communication
XLC
▼ -1.41%
Real Estate
XLRE
▼ -1.65%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▼ -1.78%
Financials
XLF
▼ -1.93%
Materials
XLB
▼ -2.62%
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.25T
▲ +1.29%
BTC DOMINANCE
56.1%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$66.2B
Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread at 37.9 basis points continues its normalization trend, a constructive signal for medium-term risk appetite. The combined stablecoin market cap of $257 billion represents significant dry powder that could re-enter crypto markets; meanwhile, SMH's outperformance underscores that technology-sector risk appetite remains more resilient than the broader market.
DERIVATIVES DESK
$62,860 ▲ +1.41%
Support Level
$61,658
Resistance Level
$63,820
Price at $62,860 is holding above support ($61,658), with resistance at $63,820.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.1066%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.064%
24h High
-0.118%
24h Low
09:0018:0003:0013:0022:0008:00 +0.149%0-0.149%
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
22 EXTREME FEAR
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
0.00%
ETH Basis
0.00%
BTC funding rate at a mild 0.0065% suggests no excessive long leverage buildup in perpetual futures markets. ETH funding is elevated at 0.015%, while SOL shows a notably negative rate of -0.10%, signaling short-term selling pressure and bearish positioning in Solana derivatives.
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$72,000
Deribit DVOL Index
38.66 ▼ -1.01
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.56
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
BTC▲ +0.0065%
ETH▲ +0.0152%
SOL▼ -0.0999%
Open Interest (OI)
BTC122.94M
ETH42.24M
SOL20.01M
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
08 Jul 2026
Outflow
Total Flow
-84.9M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-59.1M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-14.9M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
24 Jun26 Jun30 Jun02 Jul07 Jul08 Jul +$692M0-$692M
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETF data for July 8 shows net outflows of -$84.9 million, with IBIT recording -$59.1M and FBTC -$14.9M in redemptions. This reversal following the July 6-7 recovery suggests institutional buying pressure has faded again, though outflow magnitude remains far below late-June levels, indicating the selling is not yet structural.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
08 Jul 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+70.5M
ETHA (BlackRock)
+0.0M
FETH (Fidelity)
+69.2M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset Price 1H 24H 7D
BTC 
 $62,860.00 ▼ -0.14% ▲ +1.41% ▲ +4.38%
ETH 
 $1,752.98 ▲ +0.08% ▲ +1.10% ▲ +8.36%
XRP 
 $1.0960 ▼ -0.27% ▲ +1.25% ▲ +3.59%
SOL 
 $78.0800 ▼ -0.21% ▲ +0.83% ▲ +0.20%
TRX 
 $0.330936 ▼ -0.16% ▲ +0.98% ▲ +4.58%
HYPE 
 $68.0800 ▲ +0.23% ▲ +0.03% ▲ +7.57%
DOGE 
 $0.072833 ▼ -0.00% ▲ +1.90% ▲ +0.54%
LINK 
 $7.7500 ▲ +0.18% ▲ +2.03% ▲ +4.20%
TON 
 $1.5900 ▼ -0.38% ▲ +1.16% ▲ +0.80%
SUI 
 $0.724739 ▼ -0.04% ▲ +2.74% ▼ -0.10%
TOP STORIES
Reuters · 04:32

Morning Bid: Chip euphoria vies with war weariness - Reuters
AI Insight: The chip euphoria driven by NVIDIA's +3.65% gain and SMH's +1.99% advance confirms sustained institutional interest in AI and semiconductor infrastructure; this dynamic can indirectly support demand for crypto mining and AI-adjacent tokens, though the negative Coinbase premium of -0.11 suggests U.S. spot buyers remain cautious.
Reuters · 04:06

Gulf companies are set to reveal the unequal toll of Iran war - Reuters
AI Insight: Gulf companies bracing to reveal the unequal toll of the Iran conflict keeps regional risk premiums elevated; the relative calm in oil prices with Brent at $77.28 suggests markets are pricing a 'controlled conflict' scenario for now, but any escalation could rapidly reprice energy and risk assets simultaneously.
Reuters · 01:32

Gold rises from one-week low as softer dollar lends support - Reuters
AI Insight: Gold's rebound from one-week lows to $4,121 aligns with the softening DXY at 100.93; while this macro backdrop supports Bitcoin's digital gold narrative, the Fear & Greed Index at 22 confirms institutional buyers have yet to act, consistent with ongoing ETF outflows.

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