NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
Fri, Jul 10 2026
NEUTRAL Chip-driven equity rally offsets geopolitical headwinds, but ETF outflows and Extreme Fear keep crypto in a cautious holding pattern.

Markets are presenting a mixed picture today: the Nasdaq surged on semiconductor strength, effectively shrugging off US-Iran tensions, while VIX at 16.08 remains relatively subdued. The 10-year US Treasury yield eased to 4.54%, yet the 2-year yield holds at 4.21%, pushing the 2s10s spread to a positive +33 bps as the curve continues to normalize. The DXY is nearly flat at 100.85, while gold heads for a weekly loss as Gulf attacks reinforce rate-hike bets. On the crypto front, BTC trades at $64,171, up +4.07% over seven days, yet the Fear & Greed index lingers at 23 (Extreme Fear) and total crypto market cap sits around $2.28 trillion. This week's FOMC Meeting Minutes released July 8 and Unemployment Claims on July 9 (forecast: 218K) keep uncertainty around the Fed's rate path alive, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for July 29.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS
KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
  • Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
  • Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact
KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
  • Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
  • Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share
NASDAQ 100
29,767
▼ -0.57%
DXY
100.8530
▼ -0.09%
GOLD
$4,110
▼ -0.49%
10Y UST
4.54%
▼ -0.66%
VIX
16.1
▲ +1.52%
BTC
$64,171
▲ +2.09%
BTC.D
56.4%
—
F&G INDEX
23
Extreme Fear
TODAY'S CALENDAR
Next FOMC
Wed (19 days away)
 Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
Date Time (TRT) Event Country Prev Cons Actual
06 Jul Mon 17:00
ISM Services PMI
 USD 54.5 54.2 —
08 Jul Wed 21:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes
 USD — — —
09 Jul Thu 15:30
Unemployment Claims
 USD 215K 218K —
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
AAPL Apple
 316.22 ▲ +0.90% ▲ +7.42% ▲ +4.87%
MSFT Microsoft
 384.36 ▲ +0.27% ▲ +0.02% ▼ -6.65%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)
 358.89 ▼ -0.84% ▼ -0.64% ▼ -1.22%
AMZN Amazon
 247.04 ▲ +1.40% ▲ +2.21% ▲ +0.74%
NVDA NVIDIA
 202.78 ▼ -0.66% ▲ +2.63% ▼ -2.81%
META Meta
 631.48 ▲ +4.70% ▲ +3.03% ▲ +7.97%
TSLA Tesla
 406.55 ▲ +3.17% ▼ -4.41% ▼ -0.59%
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
XAU Gold
 $4,110.20 ▼ -0.49% ▼ -0.06% ▼ -3.52%
XAG Silver
 $59.99 ▼ -0.63% ▼ -1.07% ▼ -7.83%
HG Copper
 $6.26 ▲ +0.76% ▲ +2.42% ▼ -0.63%
NG Natural Gas
 $2.98 ▼ -0.96% ▼ -6.66% ▼ -5.00%
CC Cocoa
 $6,309.00 ▲ +5.87% ▲ +26.03% ▲ +64.68%
KC Coffee
 $317.15 ▼ -11.15% ▲ +0.48% ▲ +29.77%
BZ Brent Oil
 $76.25 ▼ -0.07% ▲ +6.20% ▼ -16.62%
S&P 500 Sectors
Technology
XLK
▲ +2.18%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▲ +1.34%
Financials
XLF
▲ +1.04%
Communication
XLC
▲ +0.96%
Industrials
XLI
▲ +0.38%
Materials
XLB
▲ +0.20%
Real Estate
XLRE
▲ +0.18%
Health Care
XLV
▼ -0.08%
Utilities
XLU
▼ -0.51%
Energy
XLE
▼ -1.40%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▼ -1.41%
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.28T
▲ +1.65%
BTC DOMINANCE
56.4%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$64.0B
Analyst Note: The 2s10s spread widening to +33 bps and the Copper/Gold ratio rising +2.48% signal a modest improvement in economic activity expectations. With stablecoin market cap stable at $257.4 billion and SMH (Semiconductor ETF) up +2.48%, risk appetite remains concentrated in the technology sector rather than broadly distributed across asset classes.
DERIVATIVES DESK
$64,171 ▲ +2.09%
Support Level
$62,765
Resistance Level
$64,462
Price at $64,171 is holding above support ($62,765), with resistance at $64,462.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.1373%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.047%
24h High
-0.137%
24h Low
09:0018:0003:0013:0022:0008:00 +0.137%0-0.137%
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
23 EXTREME FEAR
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
0.00%
ETH Basis
0.00%
BTC funding rate stands at 0.0094% and ETH at 0.033%, both positive but well below overheating thresholds, indicating measured long-side pressure in futures without an imminent short-squeeze risk. ETH's notably higher funding rate relative to BTC suggests more concentrated speculative interest on the Ethereum side.
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$72,000
Deribit DVOL Index
37.18 ▼ -1.37
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.54
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
BTC▲ +0.0094%
ETH▲ +0.0330%
SOL—
Open Interest (OI)
BTC115.65M
ETH43.21M
SOL19.91M
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
09 Jul 2026
Outflow
Total Flow
-95.3M
IBIT (BlackRock)
+0.0M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-63.3M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
25 Jun29 Jun01 Jul06 Jul08 Jul09 Jul +$692M0-$692M
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of -$95.3 million on July 9, with IBIT showing zero flow and FBTC bearing the brunt at -$63.3 million. Following the positive inflows on July 6-7, the return to outflows over the past two sessions suggests institutional buyers are taking profits near the $64K resistance zone.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
09 Jul 2026
Outflow
Total Flow
-52.2M
ETHA (BlackRock)
-12.7M
FETH (Fidelity)
-34.0M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset Price 1H 24H 7D
BTC 
 $64,171.00 ▲ +0.39% ▲ +2.09% ▲ +4.07%
ETH 
 $1,783.36 ▲ +0.68% ▲ +1.74% ▲ +3.86%
XRP 
 $1.1100 ▲ +0.75% ▲ +1.39% ▲ +0.89%
SOL 
 $79.2800 ▲ +0.69% ▲ +1.44% ▼ -2.04%
TRX 
 $0.330647 ▲ +0.11% ▼ -0.08% ▲ +3.81%
HYPE 
 $68.5900 ▲ +0.56% ▲ +0.75% ▲ +2.12%
DOGE 
 $0.074228 ▲ +0.69% ▲ +1.91% ▼ -1.32%
LINK 
 $7.9500 ▲ +0.80% ▲ +2.49% ▲ +2.32%
TON 
 $1.6800 ▲ +0.04% ▲ +5.69% ▲ +0.37%
SUI 
 $0.727832 ▲ +0.86% ▲ +0.33% ▼ -1.49%
TOP STORIES
Reuters · 03:13

Gold heads for weekly drop as Gulf attacks reinforce rate-hike bets - Reuters
AI Insight: Gulf attacks are keeping rate-hike bets alive, undermining gold's safe-haven appeal; although the 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.54%, the rise on the 2-year end continues to price in a cautious Fed stance, creating an unfavorable macro backdrop for the yellow metal.
Reuters · 01:33

Oil heads for weekly gain as Middle East supply risks persist - Reuters
AI Insight: Brent crude is on track for a weekly gain of +6.2% as Middle East supply risks persist, yet the energy sector ETF XLE fell -1.40% today, a notable divergence suggesting equity investors have not fully internalized the oil rally into energy stocks.
Reuters · 23:44

Trading Day: What war? Chip-led rally helps markets ignore on-again, off-again US-Iran truce - Reuters
AI Insight: While the semiconductor rally is carrying the Nasdaq higher, crypto is failing to fully participate in this risk-on momentum; ETF outflows of -$95.3M and a persistently negative Coinbase premium of -0.137 indicate that US retail buyers remain cautious and institutional flows are staying selective.

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