NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
Sat, Jul 11 2026
NEUTRAL Geopolitical tension and rising bond yields keep markets in neutral territory as crypto battles fear-driven sentiment.

Global markets are navigating a complex session shaped by escalating US-Iran tensions, keeping the overall tone neutral. The 10-Year US Treasury yield stands at 4.57%, applying ongoing pressure on risk assets, while the VIX has eased to 15.03; the 2s10s spread at +40.9 bps continues its normalization trend. On the crypto front, the Fear & Greed Index remains in Fear territory at 26 as BTC trades around $64,165 with a bearish 4-hour trend structure, key resistance at $64,462 and support at $62,766. In equities, META surged +5.97% and NVIDIA gained +4.03%, while DeFi tokens UNI (+10.8% weekly) and AAVE (+8.4% weekly) showed relative strength. The critical macro event this week is the FOMC Meeting Minutes on July 8, which will provide crucial clues on the Fed's rate path for both bond and crypto markets. Markets are also closely watching the Hormuz Strait tensions and their potential impact on oil supply, with Brent crude holding near $76.01.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS
KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
  • Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
  • Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact
KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
  • Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
  • Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share
NASDAQ 100
30,032
▲ +0.32%
DXY
100.9700
▲ +0.03%
GOLD
$4,104
▼ -0.64%
10Y UST
4.57%
▲ +0.66%
VIX
15.0
▼ -5.11%
BTC
$64,165
▲ +0.38%
BTC.D
56.3%
—
F&G INDEX
26
Fear
TODAY'S CALENDAR
Next FOMC
Wed (18 days away)
 Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
Date Time (TRT) Event Country Prev Cons Actual
06 Jul Mon 17:00
ISM Services PMI
 USD 54.5 54.2 —
08 Jul Wed 21:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes
 USD — — —
09 Jul Thu 15:30
Unemployment Claims
 USD 215K 218K —
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
AAPL Apple
 315.32 ▼ -0.28% ▲ +2.17% ▲ +8.53%
MSFT Microsoft
 385.10 ▲ +0.19% ▼ -1.38% ▼ -4.54%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)
 357.18 ▼ -0.48% ▼ -0.76% ▼ -1.94%
AMZN Amazon
 245.34 ▼ -0.69% ▲ +1.10% ▲ +0.47%
NVDA NVIDIA
 210.96 ▲ +4.03% ▲ +8.28% ▲ +1.33%
META Meta
 669.21 ▲ +5.97% ▲ +14.81% ▲ +14.58%
TSLA Tesla
 407.76 ▲ +0.30% ▲ +3.64% ▲ +2.79%
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
XAU Gold
 $4,104.10 ▼ -0.64% ▼ -0.21% ▼ -3.66%
XAG Silver
 $59.81 ▼ -0.94% ▼ -1.38% ▼ -8.12%
HG Copper
 $6.23 ▲ +0.30% ▲ +1.95% ▼ -1.09%
NG Natural Gas
 $2.94 ▼ -2.39% ▼ -8.01% ▼ -6.37%
CC Cocoa
 $5,919.00 ▼ -6.18% ▲ +19.60% ▲ +54.50%
KC Coffee
 $343.00 ▼ -3.91% ▲ +8.66% ▲ +40.34%
BZ Brent Oil
 $76.01 ▼ -0.38% ▲ +5.86% ▼ -16.88%
S&P 500 Sectors
Materials
XLB
▲ +1.25%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +1.11%
Communication
XLC
▲ +1.02%
Utilities
XLU
▲ +0.62%
Real Estate
XLRE
▲ +0.50%
Energy
XLE
▲ +0.47%
Industrials
XLI
▲ +0.45%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▲ +0.33%
Financials
XLF
▲ +0.31%
Technology
XLK
▲ +0.23%
Health Care
XLV
▼ -0.82%
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.28T
▲ +0.37%
BTC DOMINANCE
56.3%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$56.9B
Analyst Note: The 2s10s spread at +40.9 bps signals ongoing economic normalization, while HY OAS compressing to 270 bps reflects relative calm in credit markets. The semiconductor ETF SMH gaining +0.54% supports tech-driven risk appetite at the margin.
DERIVATIVES DESK
$64,165 ▲ +0.38%
Support Level
$62,766
Resistance Level
$64,463
Price at $64,165 is holding above support ($62,766), with resistance at $64,463.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.0901%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.052%
24h High
-0.090%
24h Low
08:0017:0002:0012:0021:0007:00 +0.118%0-0.118%
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
26 FEAR
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
0.00%
ETH Basis
0.00%
BTC funding rate is negative at -0.0037, while SOL's funding rate is at an aggressively negative -0.50, signaling that short positions dominate the futures market and raising the risk of a potential short squeeze. ETH funding remains positive at +0.019.
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$72,000
Deribit DVOL Index
35.93 ▼ -1.25
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.55
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
BTC▼ -0.0037%
ETH▲ +0.0186%
SOL▼ -0.4999%
Open Interest (OI)
BTC124.34M
ETH38.37M
SOL18.87M
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
10 Jul 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+90.4M
IBIT (BlackRock)
+86.8M
FBTC (Fidelity)
+0.0M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
26 Jun30 Jun02 Jul07 Jul09 Jul10 Jul +$444M0-$444M
Analyst Note: According to July 10 data, IBIT recorded inflows of +$86.8 million, bringing total spot Bitcoin ETF flows to +$90.4 million — a welcome recovery signal after two consecutive days of outflows. However, the persistently negative Coinbase premium at -0.09 suggests that US retail demand has yet to regain meaningful momentum.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
10 Jul 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+18.4M
ETHA (BlackRock)
+16.2M
FETH (Fidelity)
+2.2M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset Price 1H 24H 7D
BTC 
 $64,165.00 ▼ -0.01% ▲ +0.38% ▲ +2.82%
ETH 
 $1,799.32 ▲ +0.04% ▲ +1.41% ▲ +2.58%
XRP 
 $1.1100 ▲ +0.05% ▲ +0.16% ▼ -2.67%
SOL 
 $77.9600 ▲ +0.07% ▼ -1.28% ▼ -6.40%
TRX 
 $0.329787 ▲ +0.03% ▼ -0.60% ▲ +2.17%
HYPE 
 $66.3900 ▼ -0.18% ▼ -2.36% ▼ -7.05%
DOGE 
 $0.074296 ▼ -0.27% ▲ +0.45% ▼ -3.88%
LINK 
 $7.9800 ▼ -0.35% ▲ +0.85% ▲ +0.75%
TON 
 $1.6800 ▲ +1.53% ▲ +1.05% ▼ -6.37%
SUI 
 $0.745419 ▼ -0.08% ▲ +3.07% ▼ -1.63%
TOP STORIES
Reuters · 04:46

Trump says US, Iran agree to continue talks but ceasefire over - Reuters
AI Insight: Trump's declaration that the ceasefire is over while agreeing to continue talks amplifies uncertainty; this backdrop supports Brent crude holding near $76 and suggests geopolitical headwinds for risk assets will persist.
Reuters · 03:35

Trump says missiles aimed at Iran if Tehran targets US president - Reuters
AI Insight: Trump's threat of missile strikes if Iran targets the US president sharply escalates geopolitical risk; historically, such statements trigger short-term BTC selling and gold demand spikes, though the current Fear index at 26 may already be pricing in some of this risk.
Reuters · 22:25

Trump says US agreed to Iran's request to continue talks, but ceasefire is over - Reuters
AI Insight: Trump's repeated statements on the ceasefire ending underscore the fragile nature of negotiations; this persistent uncertainty reinforces the negative Coinbase premium and depressed funding rates currently observed in crypto markets.

NOCASHFLOW bulletin.

Read on Web

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.

© 2026 nocashflow.net. All rights reserved.