NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Sun, Jul 12 2026

RISK-OFF Closure of the Strait of Hormuz instantly reprices geopolitical risk premium across global markets.

As of July 12, 2026, markets are absorbing a severe geopolitical shock following U.S. military strikes against Iran and the IRGC's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice. Despite the magnitude of the event, Brent crude trading at $76.01 suggests markets may not have fully priced in the supply disruption risk. On the crypto front, BTC sits at $63,814, down 0.46% over 24 hours, while the Fear & Greed Index registers a reading of 26 (Fear), confirming that geopolitical uncertainty is weighing heavily on risk appetite. On the macro side, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.57% while the 2-year yield fell to 4.16%, producing a +41 basis point 2s10s spread that signals a steepening yield curve. Critically, this Tuesday's July 14 CPI release (YoY forecast: 3.8%, prior: 4.2%) will be a pivotal event; the risk that the Hormuz crisis reignites energy-driven inflation could push back Fed rate cut expectations significantly.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

30,032

▲ +0.32%

DXY

100.9700

▲ +0.03%

GOLD

$4,114

▼ -0.41%

10Y UST

4.57%

▲ +0.66%

VIX

15.0

▼ -5.11%

BTC

$63,814

▼ -0.46%

BTC.D

56.3%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (17 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.9%	2.8%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	0.5%	-0.1%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	4.2%	3.8%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.4%	0.3%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	1.1%	0.0%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.8%	-0.1%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	10.3	12.1	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.9%	0.3%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	215K	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	48.9	51.4	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.6%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	315.32	▼ -0.28%	▲ +2.17%	▲ +8.53%
MSFT Microsoft	385.10	▲ +0.19%	▼ -1.38%	▼ -4.54%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	357.18	▼ -0.48%	▼ -0.76%	▼ -1.94%
AMZN Amazon	245.34	▼ -0.69%	▲ +1.10%	▲ +0.47%
NVDA NVIDIA	210.96	▲ +4.03%	▲ +8.28%	▲ +1.33%
META Meta	669.21	▲ +5.97%	▲ +14.81%	▲ +14.58%
TSLA Tesla	407.76	▲ +0.30%	▲ +3.64%	▲ +2.79%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,113.70	▼ -0.41%	▲ +0.02%	▼ -3.43%
XAG Silver	$60.17	▼ -0.35%	▼ -0.79%	▼ -7.57%
HG Copper	$6.28	▲ +1.08%	▲ +2.74%	▼ -0.33%
NG Natural Gas	$2.94	▼ -2.39%	▼ -8.01%	▼ -6.37%
CC Cocoa	$6,100.00	▼ -3.31%	▲ +23.26%	▲ +59.23%
KC Coffee	$318.60	▼ -10.74%	▲ +0.93%	▲ +30.36%
BZ Brent Oil	$76.01	▼ -0.38%	▲ +5.86%	▼ -16.88%

S&P 500 Sectors

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.25%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +1.11%

Communication

XLC

▲ +1.02%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.62%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +0.50%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.47%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.45%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.33%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.31%

Technology

XLK

▲ +0.23%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.82%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.27T

▼ -0.42%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.3%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$46.7B

Analyst Note: The 2s10s spread widening to +40.9 bps and the copper/gold ratio rising 2.71% suggest economic activity expectations have not fully collapsed; however, elevated stablecoin dominance at 11.33% confirms that crypto investors remain in defensive mode, parking capital in stable assets rather than deploying into risk.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$63,814

▼ -0.46%

Support Level

$62,584

Resistance Level

$64,281

Price at $63,814 is holding above support ($62,584), with resistance at $64,281.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0757%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.054%

24h High

-0.093%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC's funding rate stands at a positive +0.0085, indicating residual long bias in perpetual futures markets, while ETH's funding rate has flipped negative to -0.0073, signaling that short pressure is building on the altcoin side. This divergence suggests that under geopolitical stress, altcoin risk is being priced more aggressively than Bitcoin.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

36.29 ▲ +0.44

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.55

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0085%
ETH	▼ -0.0073%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	120.73M
ETH	41.72M
SOL	18.74M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

10 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+90.4M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+86.8M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+0.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total inflow of $90.4 million on July 10, with IBIT alone attracting $86.8 million; positive inflows signal institutional buying pressure, though the historical flow data reveals a volatile picture since late June, with the recovery remaining tentative rather than conviction-driven. Monitoring whether these inflows accelerate or reverse in the face of the Hormuz shock will be key.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

10 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+18.4M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+16.2M

FETH (Fidelity)

+2.2M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$63,814.00	▲ +0.16%	▼ -0.46%	▲ +1.74%
ETH	$1,796.49	▲ +0.19%	▼ -0.13%	▲ +1.89%
XRP	$1.0900	▲ +0.03%	▼ -1.57%	▼ -4.19%
SOL	$76.4700	▲ +0.40%	▼ -1.93%	▼ -5.01%
TRX	$0.329712	▲ +0.03%	▲ +0.02%	▲ +1.53%
HYPE	$66.8800	▲ +0.02%	▲ +0.97%	▼ -2.51%
DOGE	$0.072792	▲ +0.06%	▼ -1.85%	▼ -3.91%
LINK	$7.9700	▲ +0.32%	▲ +0.03%	▲ +1.18%
TON	$1.6400	▼ -0.16%	▼ -2.38%	▼ -7.04%
SUI	$0.734877	▲ +0.62%	▼ -1.27%	▼ -1.26%

Former emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, dies at 74 - Reuters

AI Insight: The passing of former Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani adds a layer of political uncertainty to an already volatile Gulf region; while markets will focus primarily on the Hormuz crisis, leadership transitions in Qatar could have secondary implications for regional diplomacy and energy negotiations.

Reuters · 02:17

UKMTO says crew abandon container ship near Oman after fire onboard - Reuters

AI Insight: The crew abandonment of a container ship near Oman due to fire predates the formal Hormuz closure and serves as an early tangible signal of the deteriorating maritime security environment in the region, foreshadowing the direct impact on global shipping costs and supply chains.

Reuters · 00:51

US says it launched strikes against Iran after attack on Cyprus-flagged container ship - Reuters

AI Insight: The U.S. decision to launch strikes against Iran following the attack on a Cyprus-flagged vessel confirms the conflict has entered a direct military phase; for energy markets, this development represents a significant upside risk to Brent crude that has not yet been fully reflected in the current price of $76.01.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.