NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Mon, Jul 13 2026

RISK-OFF Middle East escalation drives oil higher while crypto sentiment remains deep in fear territory.

Markets are trading in a clear risk-off mode today. Iran's escalation of attacks on US bases in Gulf states and the slowdown of Strait of Hormuz traffic to a multi-week low pushed Brent crude up 2.96% to $78.26. The VIX surged 8.3% to 16.28 while the 10-year US Treasury yield holds at 4.57%; the 2Y-10Y spread at +40.9 basis points signals continued curve normalization. On the crypto side, Bitcoin slipped 1.45% to $63,033 over 24 hours, with the Fear & Greed Index at 28 (Fear) confirming weak sentiment and BTC dominance at 56.1% reflecting sustained pressure on altcoins. The macro calendar is critical this week: tomorrow (Tuesday, July 14) at 15:30 brings the US June CPI print, with annual CPI expected to ease from 4.2% to 3.8%. Together with Wednesday's PPI release, this week's inflation data will directly shape expectations for the Fed's July 29 FOMC meeting.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,734

▼ -0.99%

DXY

100.8490

▼ -0.12%

GOLD

$4,084

▼ -0.50%

10Y UST

4.57%

▲ +0.66%

VIX

16.3

▲ +8.32%

BTC

$63,033

▼ -1.45%

BTC.D

56.1%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (16 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.9%	2.8%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	0.5%	-0.1%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	4.2%	3.8%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.4%	0.3%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	1.1%	0.0%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.8%	-0.1%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	10.3	12.1	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.9%	0.3%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	215K	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	48.9	51.4	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.6%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	315.32	▼ -0.28%	▲ +2.17%	▲ +8.53%
MSFT Microsoft	385.10	▲ +0.19%	▼ -1.38%	▼ -4.54%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	357.18	▼ -0.48%	▼ -0.76%	▼ -1.94%
AMZN Amazon	245.34	▼ -0.69%	▲ +1.10%	▲ +0.47%
NVDA NVIDIA	210.96	▲ +4.03%	▲ +8.28%	▲ +1.33%
META Meta	669.21	▲ +5.97%	▲ +14.81%	▲ +14.58%
TSLA Tesla	407.76	▲ +0.30%	▲ +3.64%	▲ +2.79%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,083.50	▼ -0.50%	▼ -1.72%	▼ -0.60%
XAG Silver	$59.24	▼ -0.94%	▼ -4.32%	▼ -8.29%
HG Copper	$6.26	▲ +0.47%	▲ +1.37%	▲ +0.22%
NG Natural Gas	$2.89	▼ -1.53%	▼ -10.79%	▼ -9.11%
CC Cocoa	$5,919.00	▼ -6.18%	▲ +19.60%	▲ +54.50%
KC Coffee	$316.15	▼ -7.83%	▼ -13.13%	▲ +27.27%
BZ Brent Oil	$78.26	▲ +2.96%	▲ +8.71%	▼ -15.94%

S&P 500 Sectors

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.25%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +1.11%

Communication

XLC

▲ +1.02%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.62%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +0.50%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.47%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.45%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.33%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.31%

Technology

XLK

▲ +0.23%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.82%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.25T

▼ -1.08%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.1%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$52.3B

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread at +40.9 bps points to a re-steepening curve, supporting medium-term growth expectations. The SMH Semiconductor ETF gained 0.54% to $611.03 and NVIDIA surged 4.03% on the day, demonstrating tech sector resilience against geopolitical headwinds — though this strength has yet to translate into crypto market confidence.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$63,033

▼ -1.45%

Support Level

$62,195

Resistance Level

$63,892

Price at $63,033 is holding above support ($62,195), with resistance at $63,892.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1298%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.054%

24h High

-0.130%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rate stands at a mildly positive +0.00154 while ETH funding rate has turned negative at -0.00396; this divergence signals growing short pressure on ETH and reflects a non-directional market. Funding costs remain subdued overall amid geopolitical uncertainty.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

37.51 ▲ +1.34

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.54

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0015%
ETH	▼ -0.0040%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	118.65M
ETH	37.50M
SOL	17.09M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

10 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+90.4M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+86.8M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+0.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Per July 10 data, IBIT recorded +$86.8 million in inflows, bringing total spot Bitcoin ETF flows to +$90.4 million — a welcome reversal following two consecutive days of outflows (-$84.9M and -$95.3M). While positive ETF inflows represent institutional buying pressure, the lack of sustained momentum warrants caution.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

10 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+18.4M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+16.2M

FETH (Fidelity)

+2.2M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$63,033.00	▲ +0.10%	▼ -1.45%	▼ -0.00%
ETH	$1,785.80	▼ -0.12%	▼ -0.96%	▲ +0.99%
XRP	$1.0790	▼ -0.06%	▼ -1.20%	▼ -5.72%
SOL	$76.4300	▼ -0.17%	▼ -0.23%	▼ -4.76%
TRX	$0.329891	▲ +0.05%	▲ +0.12%	▲ +0.33%
HYPE	$65.5300	▲ +0.06%	▼ -2.44%	▼ -7.60%
DOGE	$0.072341	▼ -0.11%	▼ -0.91%	▼ -5.94%
LINK	$7.9800	▲ +0.05%	▼ -0.32%	▲ +0.71%
TON	$1.6000	▼ -0.32%	▼ -2.25%	▼ -8.31%
SUI	$0.732217	▼ -0.05%	▼ -0.91%	▼ -0.85%

Iran escalates attacks on US bases in Gulf states, warns of more 'incidents' in strait - Reuters

AI Insight: Iran's escalation of attacks on US bases in Gulf states and its warning of further 'incidents' in the strait sharply elevates the risk premium on global energy supply security, serving as the primary catalyst for Brent's spike and the VIX's 8.3% jump today.

Reuters · 05:03

Less than a month's supply: Europe's jet fuel stocks are wafer thin as Iran tensions flare - Reuters

AI Insight: Europe's jet fuel stocks falling to below one month's supply illustrates how rapidly Middle East tensions can transmit into commodity markets, and helps explain why the energy sector ETF XLE is outperforming today with a +0.47% gain.

Reuters · 04:52

Hormuz traffic slows to multi-week low as renewed US, Iran strikes raise safety risk - Reuters

AI Insight: The slowdown of Hormuz traffic to a multi-week low signals a tangible disruption risk in global energy logistics; read alongside the two prior days of negative ETF outflows, this underscores the fragility of current risk appetite.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.