NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Wed, Jul 15 2026

NEUTRAL Middle East tensions push oil higher while crypto struggles to recover from 'Extreme Fear' territory.

Markets are presenting a mixed picture today: BTC trades at $64,502, gaining +3.1% over 24 hours, yet the Fear & Greed Index remains anchored in Extreme Fear at 25. On the macro front, VIX has eased to 16.22 (−5.5%) and the DXY softens to 100.90, providing partial tailwinds for risk assets — but the 10Y Treasury yield climbing to 4.61% remains a headwind. The week's most pivotal macro event is tomorrow's (July 15) U.S. PPI release: Core PPI MoM is expected at 0.3% (prior: 0.4%) and headline PPI MoM at 0.0% (prior: 1.1%). Yesterday's CPI print results are not yet available, though consensus anticipated the annual headline figure to cool from 4.2% to 3.8%. Escalating Iran-U.S. tensions have driven Brent crude to $85.86 (+1.3%), complicating the global risk backdrop. Total crypto market cap stands at $2.30 trillion with BTC dominance steady at 56.3%.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,993

▲ +0.68%

DXY

100.8960

▼ -0.38%

GOLD

$4,033

▼ -0.70%

10Y UST

4.61%

▲ +0.88%

VIX

16.2

▼ -5.48%

BTC

$64,502

▲ +3.12%

BTC.D

56.3%

—

F&G INDEX

Extreme Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (14 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.9%	2.8%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	0.5%	-0.1%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	4.2%	3.8%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.4%	0.3%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	1.1%	0.0%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.8%	0.0%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	10.3	12.7	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.9%	0.2%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	216K	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	48.9	51.0	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.6%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	317.31	▲ +0.63%	▲ +1.49%	▲ +8.82%
MSFT Microsoft	390.99	▲ +1.53%	▲ +1.10%	▼ -1.60%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	352.51	▼ -1.31%	▼ -3.81%	▼ -1.09%
AMZN Amazon	247.31	▲ +0.80%	▲ +1.29%	▲ +3.91%
NVDA NVIDIA	203.53	▼ -3.52%	▲ +4.08%	▲ +1.55%
META Meta	661.04	▲ +0.66%	▲ +7.38%	▲ +16.40%
TSLA Tesla	394.76	▼ -3.19%	▼ -5.96%	▲ +3.45%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,032.60	▼ -0.70%	▼ -0.94%	▼ -4.33%
XAG Silver	$58.51	▼ -0.45%	▲ +0.59%	▼ -13.78%
HG Copper	$6.35	▲ +0.24%	▲ +4.81%	▼ -1.32%
NG Natural Gas	$2.91	▲ +0.14%	▼ -9.46%	▼ -6.79%
CC Cocoa	$5,660.00	▼ -0.63%	▼ -0.12%	▲ +52.56%
KC Coffee	$337.20	▼ -1.23%	▲ +1.69%	▲ +32.78%
BZ Brent Oil	$85.86	▲ +1.33%	▲ +10.05%	▼ -1.68%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

—

Financials

XLF

—

Health Care

XLV

—

Consumer Discret.

XLY

—

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.13%

Industrials

XLI

—

Consumer Staples

XLP

—

Energy

XLE

—

Utilities

XLU

—

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.49%

Materials

XLB

—

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.30T

▲ +2.91%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.3%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$75.4B

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y Treasury spread at +34.9 bps reflects a normalizing yield curve, with near-term recession risk not yet priced in. The Copper/Gold ratio surging +5.8% sends a strong industrial demand signal, while the stablecoin market cap holding steady at $257.3 billion suggests dry powder remains on the sidelines.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$64,502

▲ +3.12%

Support Level

$63,056

Resistance Level

$64,923

Price at $64,502 is holding above support ($63,056), with resistance at $64,923.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1086%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.042%

24h High

-0.132%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rates sit at a mild 0.0105% and ETH at 0.0115%, indicating moderate long-side pressure in perpetual markets without signs of overheating. The crypto options DVOL index at 36.45 remains relatively subdued, suggesting the market has not yet priced in a near-term volatility spike.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

36.45 ▼ -0.73

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.54

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0105%
ETH	▲ +0.0115%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	130.90M
ETH	37.77M
SOL	17.37M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

14 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+181.1M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+138.9M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+21.1M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +$181.1 million on July 14, led by IBIT at +$138.9 million and FBTC at +$21.1 million. This marks a meaningful reversal from the sharp −$424.7 million outflow on July 13, signaling institutional buyers returning to the market — positive ETF flows are a direct proxy for real spot buying pressure.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

14 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+58.3M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+58.3M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.0M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$64,502.00	▼ -0.93%	▲ +3.12%	▲ +3.04%
ETH	$1,865.66	▼ -1.16%	▲ +4.64%	▲ +6.48%
XRP	$1.1000	▼ -0.80%	▲ +3.12%	▲ +1.14%
SOL	$77.5200	▼ -1.09%	▲ +3.23%	▼ -1.10%
TRX	$0.327531	▲ +0.25%	▲ +0.92%	▼ -0.42%
HYPE	$66.9600	▼ -0.16%	▲ +5.11%	▼ -1.67%
DOGE	$0.073910	▼ -0.88%	▲ +2.34%	▲ +2.00%
LINK	$8.3100	▼ -0.91%	▲ +4.73%	▲ +8.38%
TON	$1.6000	▼ -0.71%	▲ +1.42%	▲ +0.47%
SUI	$0.751230	▼ -0.97%	▲ +2.69%	▲ +5.17%

Iran threatens to block more vital seaways as Trump orders renewed Iran blockade - Reuters

AI Insight: Iran's threat to block vital seaways and Trump's renewed blockade order raise serious concerns about global energy supply security; in such geopolitical uncertainty environments, safe-haven assets like BTC and gold may attract short-term demand, though a broader risk-off shift could simultaneously pressure crypto markets.

Reuters · 03:19

Iran-linked vessels pass through Hormuz ahead of US blockade - Reuters

AI Insight: Iran-linked vessels transiting Hormuz ahead of the U.S. blockade makes the oil supply disruption risk increasingly tangible; Brent's rise to $85.86 should be read in this context, and any pass-through to energy inflation could directly complicate the Fed's rate path ahead of tomorrow's PPI data.

Reuters · 01:24

Trump wants fees for Hormuz just like Iran - is that legal? - Reuters

AI Insight: Trump's push to charge transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz raises contested questions under international maritime law; such legal ambiguity could amplify volatility in oil futures and elevate the macro risk premium across asset classes.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.