NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Fri, Jul 17 2026

RISK-OFF Escalating Middle East conflict and rising Treasury yields push markets firmly into risk-off territory.

Markets shifted decisively into risk-off mode as the U.S. military confirmed completing its sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iran. BTC trades at $62,868, down 2.08% over 24 hours, while total crypto market cap retreated to $2.25 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 27 (Fear) as BTC dominance climbed to 56.1%, signaling a classic flight to relative safety within crypto. On the macro front, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.57% while VIX spiked to 17.9, confirming that geopolitical stress is bleeding into traditional markets. This week's July CPI release (prior 4.2%, forecast 3.8%) and PPI data carry elevated significance — the Middle East conflict's upward pressure on energy prices could re-anchor inflation expectations higher and reprice the odds for the July 29 FOMC meeting. DXY held flat near 100.70 while Brent crude climbed to $84.68, and gold is on track for its biggest weekly loss in six weeks.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

28,716

▼ -1.74%

DXY

100.7020

▼ -0.03%

GOLD

$4,000

▲ +0.35%

10Y UST

4.57%

▲ +0.53%

VIX

17.9

▲ +6.99%

BTC

$62,868

▼ -2.08%

BTC.D

56.1%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (12 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.9%	2.8%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	0.5%	-0.1%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	4.2%	3.8%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.4%	0.3%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	1.1%	0.0%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.8%	0.0%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	10.3	12.7	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.9%	0.2%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	216K	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	48.9	51.0	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.6%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	333.26	▲ +1.76%	▲ +5.39%	▲ +12.43%
MSFT Microsoft	401.10	▲ +1.38%	▲ +4.36%	▲ +0.34%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	354.46	▼ -4.44%	▼ -1.23%	▼ -4.03%
AMZN Amazon	249.89	▼ -1.99%	▲ +1.15%	▲ +1.57%
NVDA NVIDIA	207.40	▼ -2.40%	▲ +2.28%	▼ -2.38%
META Meta	664.54	▼ -2.46%	▲ +5.24%	▲ +11.97%
TSLA Tesla	391.06	▼ -0.86%	▼ -3.81%	▼ -4.89%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$3,999.70	▲ +0.35%	▼ -2.54%	▼ -7.65%
XAG Silver	$55.74	▼ -0.27%	▼ -6.79%	▼ -20.25%
HG Copper	$6.24	▼ -0.89%	▲ +0.10%	▼ -3.84%
NG Natural Gas	$2.86	▲ +0.10%	▼ -2.69%	▼ -11.67%
CC Cocoa	$5,216.00	▼ -9.08%	▼ -17.32%	▲ +34.36%
KC Coffee	$321.30	▼ -3.93%	▼ -9.99%	▲ +22.19%
BZ Brent Oil	$84.68	▲ +0.53%	▲ +11.41%	▲ +7.24%

S&P 500 Sectors

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +2.80%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +2.22%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +2.02%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.92%

Materials

XLB

▲ +0.77%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.55%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.34%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.29%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.05%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.64%

Technology

XLK

▼ -2.24%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.25T

▼ -2.06%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.1%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$69.0B

DERIVATIVES DESK

$62,868

▼ -2.08%

Support Level

$62,369

Resistance Level

$64,257

Price at $62,868 is holding above support ($62,369), with resistance at $64,257.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0709%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.061%

24h High

-0.099%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rates remain mildly positive at 0.0058%, while SOL funding has turned sharply negative at -0.434%, indicating dominant short positioning and sustained selling pressure in SOL perpetuals. ETH funding at 0.026% suggests leveraged long exposure remains elevated in Ethereum.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

37.14 ▲ +0.53

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.51

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0058%
ETH	▲ +0.0261%
SOL	▼ -0.4338%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	128.33M
ETH	47.89M
SOL	16.62M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

16 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+79.1M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+33.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+30.7M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $79.1 million on July 16, with IBIT attracting $33.4 million and FBTC pulling in $30.7 million. While positive inflows signal continued institutional buying pressure, the recovery remains modest following the massive $424.7 million outflow recorded on July 13.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

16 Jul 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-28.0M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+0.0M

FETH (Fidelity)

-11.2M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$62,868.00	▲ +0.04%	▼ -2.08%	▼ -1.86%
ETH	$1,827.82	▼ -0.16%	▼ -4.18%	▲ +2.83%
XRP	$1.0830	▼ -0.28%	▼ -2.03%	▼ -2.35%
SOL	$74.5500	▲ +0.03%	▼ -2.29%	▼ -5.78%
TRX	$0.322377	▲ +0.12%	▼ -0.50%	▼ -3.06%
HYPE	$58.6900	▼ -0.83%	▼ -11.41%	▼ -13.60%
DOGE	$0.071624	▼ -0.22%	▼ -2.55%	▼ -3.07%
LINK	$8.1700	▼ -0.14%	▼ -3.58%	▲ +3.34%
TON	$1.4600	▲ +0.78%	▼ -6.83%	▼ -11.62%
SUI	$0.732725	▼ -0.08%	▼ -1.49%	▲ +0.95%

Iran's IRGC say they targeted US command centre in Syria, state media reports - Reuters

AI Insight: Iran's IRGC claiming to have targeted a U.S. command center in Syria marks a dangerous escalation, signaling the conflict is taking on a broader regional dimension; this development coincided with BTC testing its key $62,369 support level, while a persistently negative Coinbase premium confirms weakening U.S. institutional demand.

Reuters · 03:50

Iran launches fresh attacks after sixth day of US strikes - Reuters

AI Insight: The sixth consecutive night of U.S. strikes on Iran signals the conflict has become entrenched rather than episodic; the sustained geopolitical uncertainty is driving energy prices higher and pushing VIX to 17.9, indicating a rising fear premium across traditional markets that is spilling into crypto.

Reuters · 03:34

Gold heads for biggest weekly loss in six as Middle East war fans inflation worries - Reuters

AI Insight: Gold heading for its biggest weekly loss in six weeks is a notable divergence from classic safe-haven behavior; rather than attracting war-driven demand, rising U.S. Treasury yields at 4.57% and the prospect that this week's CPI and PPI data could reset inflation expectations higher are weighing on the non-yielding metal.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.