NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Sat, Jul 18 2026

RISK-OFF The 7th night of Iran-US conflict, surging VIX, and tech selloff crush risk appetite across markets.

Global markets shifted firmly into risk-off mode as the US military completed its 7th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran renewed attacks on Gulf states. VIX surged 12.2% to 18.77 and NASDAQ 100 Futures fell 1.55%, with every Magnificent 7 stock closing in the red. Geopolitical tensions rattled commodity markets: Brent crude jumped 4.6% to $88.10 while gold held firm at $4,012. In crypto, BTC trades at $63,951 while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 25 (Extreme Fear), confirming broad market anxiety. BTC dominance at 56.4% remains elevated as altcoins underperform, reinforcing the flight-to-quality dynamic within crypto. On the macro calendar, this week's US CPI print on July 14 is front and center — consensus expects headline inflation to ease from 4.2% to 3.8% YoY, though geopolitically driven energy price spikes leave this forecast vulnerable to an upside surprise.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

28,773

▼ -1.55%

DXY

100.7500

▲ +0.02%

GOLD

$4,013

▲ +0.68%

10Y UST

4.54%

▼ -0.61%

VIX

18.8

▲ +12.19%

BTC

$63,951

▲ +1.83%

BTC.D

56.4%

—

F&G INDEX

Extreme Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (11 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.9%	2.8%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	0.5%	-0.1%	—
14 Jul Tue	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	4.2%	3.8%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.4%	0.3%	—
15 Jul Wed	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	1.1%	0.0%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.8%	0.0%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	10.3	12.7	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.9%	0.2%	—
16 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	215K	216K	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	48.9	51.0	—
17 Jul Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.6%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	333.74	▲ +0.14%	▲ +5.84%	▲ +11.53%
MSFT Microsoft	393.82	▼ -1.82%	▲ +2.26%	▼ -0.00%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	346.77	▼ -2.17%	▼ -2.91%	▼ -7.09%
AMZN Amazon	247.23	▼ -1.06%	▲ +0.77%	▲ +0.50%
NVDA NVIDIA	202.81	▼ -2.21%	▼ -3.86%	▼ -2.22%
META Meta	646.01	▼ -2.79%	▼ -3.47%	▲ +7.63%
TSLA Tesla	380.84	▼ -2.61%	▼ -6.60%	▼ -5.89%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,012.70	▲ +0.68%	▼ -2.23%	▼ -7.35%
XAG Silver	$56.04	▲ +0.25%	▼ -6.31%	▼ -19.83%
HG Copper	$6.22	▼ -1.21%	▼ -0.22%	▼ -4.15%
NG Natural Gas	$2.91	▲ +1.85%	▼ -0.99%	▼ -10.13%
CC Cocoa	$5,533.00	▲ +6.08%	▼ -6.52%	▲ +33.58%
KC Coffee	$328.45	▲ +2.23%	▼ -4.24%	▲ +18.47%
BZ Brent Oil	$88.10	▲ +4.59%	▲ +15.91%	▲ +11.58%

S&P 500 Sectors

Energy

XLE

▲ +1.16%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.09%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.41%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.44%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -0.66%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.71%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.72%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.86%

Technology

XLK

▼ -1.09%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -1.62%

Communication

XLC

▼ -1.78%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.27T

▲ +1.16%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.4%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$56.1B

DERIVATIVES DESK

$63,951

▲ +1.83%

Support Level

$62,913

Resistance Level

$64,800

Price at $63,951 is holding above support ($62,913), with resistance at $64,800.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0830%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.054%

24h High

-0.099%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rate stands at +0.0062 and ETH at +0.0054, indicating a mild long bias still persists in perpetual futures markets. However, SOL's funding rate plunging to -0.40 signals a sharp short-side positioning specific to Solana.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

36.37 ▼ -0.26

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.46

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0062%
ETH	▲ +0.0054%
SOL	▼ -0.4000%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	119.65M
ETH	43.46M
SOL	17.01M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

17 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+132.3M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+136.5M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-4.2M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +$132.3M on July 17, with IBIT contributing +$136.5M while FBTC saw -$4.2M in outflows. Following the brutal -$424.7M outflow on July 13, three consecutive days of cumulative inflows totaling $319M suggest institutional buyers are treating the dip as an opportunity — though geopolitical uncertainty raises questions about flow sustainability.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

17 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+36.7M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+31.7M

FETH (Fidelity)

+5.0M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$63,951.00	▼ -0.00%	▲ +1.83%	▼ -0.34%
ETH	$1,842.35	▼ -0.16%	▲ +0.81%	▲ +2.47%
XRP	$1.0880	▲ +0.10%	▲ +0.41%	▼ -1.54%
SOL	$74.8700	▼ -0.10%	▲ +0.55%	▼ -4.00%
TRX	$0.321802	▲ +0.04%	▼ -0.00%	▼ -2.43%
HYPE	$58.8600	▲ +0.20%	▼ -0.21%	▼ -11.33%
DOGE	$0.072291	▲ +0.07%	▲ +0.80%	▼ -2.76%
LINK	$8.2400	▲ +0.03%	▲ +0.77%	▲ +3.06%
TON	$1.4700	▼ -0.38%	▲ +1.63%	▼ -10.24%
SUI	$0.734473	▼ -0.13%	▲ +0.21%	▼ -1.63%

Iran renews attacks on Gulf states after another night of US strikes - Reuters

AI Insight: Iran's continued strikes on Gulf states raise the specter of regional escalation; while this drives Brent crude higher, BTC's persistently negative Coinbase premium (-0.083) suggests US institutional buyers have yet to step in aggressively despite the conflict-driven volatility.

Reuters · 02:40

US military says it completed latest strikes on Iran, marking 7th consecutive night of attacks - Reuters

AI Insight: Seven consecutive nights of US military operations signal the conflict has entered a sustained phase; the VIX spike of 12.2% and the 1.55% drop in NASDAQ futures confirm markets are actively repricing this geopolitical risk premium.

Reuters · 23:03

Boeing keeps 20-year forecast for jet demand steady, shrugs off Iran war impact - Reuters

AI Insight: Boeing's decision to hold its 20-year jet demand forecast steady despite the Iran conflict reflects confidence in long-term aviation fundamentals; however, Brent crude surging to $88 materially increases fuel cost risk for airlines, casting a shadow over Boeing's bullish demand projections.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.