NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Mon, Jul 20 2026

RISK-OFF Escalating Middle East tensions and surging oil prices weigh on risk assets as crypto sentiment remains firmly in Fear territory.

Markets are navigating a significant wave of geopolitical risk as the US-Iran conflict enters its ninth consecutive day. Reports of two oil tankers being disabled in the Strait of Hormuz sent crude prices surging 3%, pushing Brent crude to $88.39. On the macro front, VIX sits at 18.43, elevated but slightly off its highs; the 10-year US Treasury yield holds at 4.54% while DXY remains relatively contained at 100.71. In crypto, Bitcoin trades at $64,179 with a Bearish 4-hour trend intact and BTC dominance at 56.4%, continuing to weigh on altcoins. The Fear & Greed Index reads 29 (Fear), and Asian equities are also hesitant amid geopolitical uncertainty and looming earnings. Looking ahead, with the July 29 FOMC meeting just 9 days away, markets are actively pricing rate expectations against the Fed's median dot projection of 3.8%.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

28,924

▲ +0.52%

DXY

100.7060

▼ -0.04%

GOLD

$4,031

▲ +0.46%

10Y UST

4.54%

▼ -0.61%

VIX

18.4

▼ -1.81%

BTC

$64,179

▼ -0.70%

BTC.D

56.4%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (9 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Main Refinancing Rate	EUR	2.40%	2.40%	—
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Monetary Policy Statement	EUR	—	—	—
23 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	208K	211K	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.7	51.2	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Services PMI	EUR	47.4	47.7	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.0	50.5	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Services PMI	EUR	46.8	49.0	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	333.74	▲ +0.14%	▲ +5.84%	▲ +11.53%
MSFT Microsoft	393.82	▼ -1.82%	▲ +2.26%	▼ -0.00%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	346.77	▼ -2.17%	▼ -2.91%	▼ -7.09%
AMZN Amazon	247.23	▼ -1.06%	▲ +0.77%	▲ +0.50%
NVDA NVIDIA	202.81	▼ -2.21%	▼ -3.86%	▼ -2.22%
META Meta	646.01	▼ -2.79%	▼ -3.47%	▲ +7.63%
TSLA Tesla	380.84	▼ -2.61%	▼ -6.60%	▼ -5.89%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,031.00	▲ +0.46%	▲ +0.85%	▼ -7.52%
XAG Silver	$57.38	▲ +2.39%	▼ -0.45%	▼ -18.84%
HG Copper	$6.32	▲ +1.67%	▲ +1.46%	▼ -2.43%
NG Natural Gas	$2.85	▼ -2.27%	▼ -1.79%	▼ -9.54%
CC Cocoa	$5,533.00	▲ +6.08%	▼ -6.52%	▲ +33.58%
KC Coffee	$328.45	▲ +2.23%	▼ -4.24%	▲ +18.47%
BZ Brent Oil	$88.39	▲ +0.33%	▲ +6.11%	▲ +11.11%

S&P 500 Sectors

Energy

XLE

▲ +1.16%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.09%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.41%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.44%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -0.66%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.71%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.72%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.86%

Technology

XLK

▼ -1.09%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -1.62%

Communication

XLC

▼ -1.78%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.28T

▼ -0.63%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.4%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$49.6B

DERIVATIVES DESK

$64,179

▼ -0.70%

Support Level

$63,033

Resistance Level

$64,921

Price at $64,179 is holding above support ($63,033), with resistance at $64,921.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0577%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.058%

24h High

-0.102%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rate stands at a moderate 0.0095%, indicating controlled long positioning rather than excessive leverage in the futures market. In the current geopolitical climate, this tempered funding rate suggests speculative froth has not yet built up meaningfully.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

36.86 ▲ +0.69

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.45

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0095%
ETH	▲ +0.0027%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	122.24M
ETH	48.77M
SOL	17.26M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

17 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+132.3M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+136.5M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-4.2M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: In the most recent data (July 17), IBIT recorded +$136.5M in inflows while FBTC saw -$4.2M in outflows, bringing total net flows to +$132.3M — classified as 'Moderate Inflow.' Four consecutive days of positive flows following the sharp $424.7M outflow on July 13 suggests institutional buyers are returning to the market.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

17 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+36.7M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+31.7M

FETH (Fidelity)

+5.0M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$64,179.00	▲ +0.18%	▼ -0.70%	▲ +1.92%
ETH	$1,862.65	▲ +0.34%	▼ -0.27%	▲ +4.86%
XRP	$1.0890	▲ +0.16%	▼ -0.62%	▲ +1.12%
SOL	$76.2600	▲ +0.71%	▲ +0.14%	▼ -0.14%
TRX	$0.325794	▼ -0.07%	▼ -0.08%	▼ -1.12%
HYPE	$60.6200	▲ +0.40%	▼ -0.55%	▼ -6.87%
DOGE	$0.071761	▲ +0.26%	▼ -1.06%	▼ -0.72%
LINK	$8.3500	▲ +0.16%	▼ -0.04%	▲ +4.77%
TON	$1.4300	▲ +0.14%	▼ -1.94%	▼ -10.84%
SUI	$0.746576	▲ +0.60%	▲ +0.06%	▲ +2.03%

Spain beat Argentina to win World Cup - Reuters

Reuters · 01:49

US strikes Iran for ninth day; Iran says two oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz exploded and immobilised - Reuters

AI Insight: The disabling of two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict entering its ninth day represent a direct threat to global energy supply chains, serving as the primary catalyst behind Brent crude's move to $88.39 and the broad risk-off sentiment across markets. For crypto, this geopolitical backdrop reinforces BTC's Bearish 4-hour trend and the Fear & Greed reading of 29.

Reuters · 00:35

Asia shares hesitant as oil climbs, earnings loom - Reuters

AI Insight: Rising oil prices keeping Asian shares hesitant, combined with upcoming corporate earnings uncertainty, is accelerating the rotation away from risk assets; the Energy sector (XLE +1.16%) stands as the sole gainer in today's S&P 500 sector breakdown, while Technology and Communication Services absorbed the heaviest losses.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.