NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Tue, Jul 21 2026

NEUTRAL Crypto prices climb amid geopolitical uncertainty and Extreme Fear, keeping markets in neutral territory.

Global markets are generating mixed signals as US-Iran tensions enter their 10th consecutive night of strikes and Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings continue to decline. Hopes for Mideast mediation have pulled oil prices lower, supporting a bounce in Asian equities, while gold surged 1.6% to $4,076, continuing to price in geopolitical risk premiums. On the macro front, VIX has eased to 17.59, yet the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 4.60%, maintaining pressure on equity valuations, with DXY hovering around 100.9. In crypto, BTC reached $66,158 — up 5.8% on the week — and total market cap stands at $2.34 trillion, yet the Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in 'Extreme Fear' territory at 25. This divergence between rising prices and depressed sentiment suggests the rally lacks broad conviction. Looking ahead, the ECB rate decision on July 23 (expected unchanged at 2.40%) and US Jobless Claims will serve as key near-term catalysts.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,111

▲ +1.16%

DXY

100.9090

▼ -0.08%

GOLD

$4,076

▲ +1.64%

10Y UST

4.60%

▲ +1.26%

VIX

17.6

▼ -5.68%

BTC

$66,158

▲ +3.06%

BTC.D

56.7%

—

F&G INDEX

Extreme Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (8 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Main Refinancing Rate	EUR	2.40%	2.40%	—
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Monetary Policy Statement	EUR	—	—	—
23 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	208K	211K	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.7	51.0	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Services PMI	EUR	47.4	47.5	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.0	50.4	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Services PMI	EUR	46.8	49.0	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	326.59	▼ -2.14%	▲ +2.92%	▲ +10.35%
MSFT Microsoft	402.29	▲ +2.15%	▲ +2.89%	▲ +6.17%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	351.99	▲ +1.51%	▼ -0.15%	▼ -3.24%
AMZN Amazon	249.99	▲ +1.12%	▲ +1.08%	▲ +5.26%
NVDA NVIDIA	203.28	▲ +0.23%	▼ -0.12%	▼ -0.67%
META Meta	645.85	▼ -0.02%	▼ -1.66%	▲ +13.79%
TSLA Tesla	369.57	▼ -2.96%	▼ -6.38%	▼ -6.76%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,076.10	▲ +1.64%	▲ +0.37%	▼ -3.50%
XAG Silver	$59.26	▲ +4.33%	▲ +0.83%	▼ -10.56%
HG Copper	$6.49	▲ +2.99%	▲ +2.49%	▲ +1.77%
NG Natural Gas	$2.87	▲ +0.24%	▼ -1.27%	▼ -11.32%
CC Cocoa	$5,520.00	▼ -0.23%	▼ -3.09%	▲ +33.20%
KC Coffee	$334.40	▲ +1.81%	▼ -2.05%	▲ +20.35%
BZ Brent Oil	$88.44	▼ -0.87%	▲ +4.38%	▲ +10.76%

S&P 500 Sectors

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.45%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.14%

Technology

XLK

▲ +0.07%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.39%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.39%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.42%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -0.51%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.72%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.72%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.99%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -1.14%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.34T

▲ +2.58%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.7%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$72.3B

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y yield spread at +41.8 bps confirms the yield curve continues to normalize, providing a constructive macro backdrop for risk appetite over the medium term. The semiconductor ETF SMH's +0.41% gain and stablecoin market cap holding stable near $257B suggest no large-scale panic liquidation has occurred in crypto markets.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$66,158

▲ +3.06%

Support Level

$64,350

Resistance Level

$66,223

Price at $66,158 is holding above support ($64,350), with resistance at $66,223.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0342%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.034%

24h High

-0.102%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rates are slightly negative at -0.0034, while SOL shows a notably negative funding rate of -0.30, indicating that short positions are dominant in these assets and near-term downside pressure persists. ETH, by contrast, carries a mildly positive funding rate of +0.020, reflecting a lean toward long positioning.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

36.37 ▼ -0.43

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.46

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▼ -0.0034%
ETH	▲ +0.0202%
SOL	▼ -0.2997%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	131.65M
ETH	58.30M
SOL	18.33M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

20 Jul 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+226.8M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+116.5M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+24.1M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows on July 20, with IBIT at +$116.5M and FBTC at +$24.1M, bringing total daily inflows to +$226.8M — a 'Strong Inflow' signal indicating sustained institutional buying pressure. The five consecutive days of positive flows following the sharp -$424.7M outflow on July 13 is a notable structural recovery.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

20 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+38.0M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+34.3M

FETH (Fidelity)

+2.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$66,158.00	▲ +0.43%	▲ +3.06%	▲ +5.80%
ETH	$1,933.22	▼ -0.02%	▲ +3.81%	▲ +8.55%
XRP	$1.1300	▲ +0.02%	▲ +4.19%	▲ +6.14%
SOL	$78.5400	▼ -0.04%	▲ +3.20%	▲ +4.58%
TRX	$0.326411	▲ +0.02%	▲ +0.16%	▲ +0.47%
HYPE	$62.9500	▼ -0.31%	▲ +3.66%	▼ -1.27%
DOGE	$0.073137	▲ +0.06%	▲ +1.91%	▲ +1.20%
LINK	$8.7300	▲ +0.34%	▲ +4.55%	▲ +9.83%
TON	$1.4500	▼ -0.11%	▲ +1.07%	▼ -8.70%
SUI	$0.776329	▲ +0.28%	▲ +4.11%	▲ +6.43%

Gold rises 1% as hopes for US-Iran diplomacy pause oil rally - Reuters

AI Insight: Gold's surge to $4,076 — driven by diplomatic hopes that capped the oil rally — confirms that geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated in commodity markets, creating a supportive backdrop for BTC's 'digital gold' narrative alongside the ongoing ETF inflows.

Reuters · 02:26

US military completes its latest strikes on Iran, marking the 10th successive night of attacks - Reuters

AI Insight: The completion of the 10th successive night of US strikes on Iran underscores the risk of the conflict becoming entrenched; a potential Hormuz closure scenario could trigger an energy supply shock that would sharply dampen global risk appetite — making VIX's current hold near 17 a figure worth watching closely.

Reuters · 02:13

Hormuz vessel crossings extend slide on fresh US-Iran attacks - Reuters

AI Insight: Declining Hormuz vessel crossings raise the specter of disruption to a waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil supply; the energy sector ETF XLE's outperformance at +0.45% today directly reflects this supply-risk premium being priced in.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.