NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Wed, Jul 22 2026

RISK-OFF Middle East tensions, rising Treasury yields, and a crypto 'Fear' reading keep risk appetite firmly suppressed.

Markets are navigating a complex environment today, caught between geopolitical pressure and macro headwinds. The US 10-Year Treasury Yield climbed to a weekly high of 4.63% while the VIX rose to 17.62, fostering a cautious tone across risk assets. The 11th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran kept the geopolitical risk premium elevated, pushing Brent crude to $94.43 and gold to a two-week high of $4,117. The DXY holds relatively steady at 101.14, while the crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in 'Fear' territory at 33, with BTC dominance at 56.76% reflecting relative resilience versus altcoins. The upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29 — just seven days away — remains a key focal point; the current Fed median dot projection stands at 3.8%. Tomorrow's ECB rate decision (expected unchanged at 2.40%) and US Unemployment Claims (forecast 211K) will be closely watched for near-term direction.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

29,073

▼ -0.83%

DXY

101.1390

▼ -0.04%

GOLD

$4,117

▲ +1.13%

10Y UST

4.63%

▲ +0.65%

VIX

17.6

▲ +3.34%

BTC

$65,806

▼ -0.52%

BTC.D

56.8%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (7 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Main Refinancing Rate	EUR	2.40%	2.40%	—
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Monetary Policy Statement	EUR	—	—	—
23 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	208K	211K	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.7	51.0	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Services PMI	EUR	47.4	47.5	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.0	50.4	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Services PMI	EUR	46.8	49.0	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	327.74	▲ +0.35%	▲ +4.09%	▲ +9.98%
MSFT Microsoft	397.75	▼ -1.13%	▲ +3.33%	▲ +4.84%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	347.15	▼ -1.38%	▼ -3.44%	▼ -5.67%
AMZN Amazon	247.55	▼ -0.98%	▲ +0.02%	▲ +1.29%
NVDA NVIDIA	207.29	▲ +1.97%	▼ -2.13%	▼ -1.61%
META Meta	643.81	▼ -0.32%	▼ -2.61%	▲ +11.54%
TSLA Tesla	378.93	▲ +2.53%	▼ -4.35%	▼ -5.38%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,117.20	▲ +1.13%	▲ +1.81%	▼ -1.55%
XAG Silver	$59.47	▲ +1.07%	▲ +4.12%	▼ -9.25%
HG Copper	$6.51	▲ +0.01%	▲ +3.46%	▲ +2.44%
NG Natural Gas	$2.88	▲ +0.59%	▼ -1.44%	▼ -11.40%
CC Cocoa	$5,607.00	▲ +1.58%	▼ -0.94%	▲ +35.34%
KC Coffee	$331.95	▼ -0.73%	▼ -1.56%	▲ +20.67%
BZ Brent Oil	$94.43	▲ +3.76%	▲ +11.16%	▲ +21.22%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

▲ +2.89%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.97%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.63%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.30%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.23%

Materials

XLB

▲ +0.14%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.12%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -0.04%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.07%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.69%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.94%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.32T

▼ -0.71%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.8%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$70.9B

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y Treasury spread stands at 41.8 basis points in positive territory, reflecting continued yield curve normalization — a broadly neutral-to-constructive signal for growth expectations. The combined stablecoin market cap of $257.3 billion represents a substantial pool of sidelined liquidity that could re-enter crypto markets, but a reduction in geopolitical risk is likely needed to trigger meaningful rotation.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$65,806

▼ -0.52%

Support Level

$64,195

Resistance Level

$66,404

Price at $65,806 is holding above support ($64,195), with resistance at $66,404.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0655%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.031%

24h High

-0.075%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rate sits at a mildly positive +0.004, indicating modest long-side pressure at current price levels. ETH funding rate has flipped negative to -0.0074, signaling that short positions are gaining weight in ETH perpetuals and that near-term selling pressure may persist.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

38.13 ▲ +1.57

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.44

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0040%
ETH	▼ -0.0074%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	142.77M
ETH	51.14M
SOL	16.44M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

21 Jul 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+203.2M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+163.9M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+23.1M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows on July 21, with IBIT attracting $163.9M and FBTC adding $23.1M for a combined total of $203.2M — a 'Strong Inflow' signal that confirms sustained institutional demand. However, despite ETF inflows providing a floor for BTC prices, geopolitical uncertainty and the elevated rate environment continue to cap upside momentum.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

21 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+37.5M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+52.8M

FETH (Fidelity)

-15.3M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$65,806.00	▼ -0.12%	▼ -0.52%	▲ +1.55%
ETH	$1,912.98	▼ -0.15%	▼ -1.04%	▲ +1.92%
XRP	$1.1300	▼ -0.13%	▼ -0.42%	▲ +1.99%
SOL	$77.0600	▼ -0.19%	▼ -1.91%	▼ -1.16%
TRX	$0.328869	▲ +0.08%	▲ +0.75%	▲ +0.58%
HYPE	$58.4600	▼ -0.17%	▼ -7.13%	▼ -13.24%
DOGE	$0.072160	▼ -0.26%	▼ -1.34%	▼ -2.63%
LINK	$8.5800	▼ -0.38%	▼ -1.70%	▲ +2.72%
TON	$1.5100	▲ +0.12%	▲ +4.40%	▼ -6.04%
SUI	$0.755145	▲ +0.15%	▼ -2.73%	▲ +0.13%

Rubio says US still willing to negotiate over Iran crisis - Reuters

AI Insight: Secretary Rubio's signal that the US remains open to negotiations with Iran offers markets a limited de-escalation hope; however, with 11 consecutive nights of military strikes on record, translating this diplomatic opening into a concrete ceasefire remains highly uncertain.

Reuters · 02:11

Rubio to hold talks with China's Wang Yi as regional powers join ASEAN meet - Reuters

AI Insight: The Rubio-Wang Yi meeting at ASEAN confirms that US-China diplomatic channels remain functional, a marginally positive signal for global risk sentiment during a period of elevated trade tensions — though absent concrete deliverables, the market impact is likely to stay muted.

Reuters · 01:51

Gold hits two-week high as Fed outlook, Mideast conflict stay in focus - Reuters

AI Insight: Gold's surge to a two-week high of $4,117 reflects dual demand from both Fed policy uncertainty and Middle East conflict risk, driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Notably, gold's strength despite rising 10Y yields underscores that inflation and geopolitical risk premiums are currently dominating the macro narrative.

NOCASHFLOW bulletin.

Read on Web

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.