NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Thu, Jul 23 2026

RISK-OFF Escalating Middle East tensions, rising Treasury yields, and weakening crypto sentiment are driving a broad risk-off shift across markets.

Global markets are caught in a geopolitical pressure and macro tightening spiral. The U.S. military completing its 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, combined with Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, triggered significant commodity volatility; Brent crude extended its five-day winning streak but pulled back sharply, down 8.2% on the day. On the macro front, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield climbed to 4.657%, reaching recent highs, while the 2Y-10Y spread remains positive at 39.7 basis points. VIX surged 7.7% to 17.92, signaling heightened uncertainty in the market. Today's key event is the ECB rate decision, with expectations pointing to the Main Refinancing Rate holding steady at 2.40%. In crypto, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 31 (Fear) while BTC dominance holds at 56.6%. BTC trades at $65,399 in a bearish 4-hour trend with key support at $63,985. With the FOMC meeting just 6 days away, Fed rate expectations (dot plot median at 3.80%) remain a central focus for risk assets.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact

KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).

Primary Sources / Reports:

House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share

NASDAQ 100

28,943

▼ -0.82%

DXY

101.0700

▼ -0.07%

GOLD

$4,096

▼ -1.22%

10Y UST

4.66%

▲ +0.63%

VIX

17.9

▲ +7.69%

BTC

$65,399

▼ -0.80%

BTC.D

56.6%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (6 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Main Refinancing Rate	EUR	2.40%	2.40%	—
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Monetary Policy Statement	EUR	—	—	—
23 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	208K	211K	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.7	51.0	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Services PMI	EUR	47.4	47.5	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.0	50.4	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Services PMI	EUR	46.8	49.0	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	325.89	▼ -0.56%	▼ -0.49%	▲ +9.72%
MSFT Microsoft	390.34	▼ -1.86%	▼ -1.34%	▲ +6.26%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	342.09	▼ -1.46%	▼ -7.77%	▼ -2.17%
AMZN Amazon	244.85	▼ -1.09%	▼ -3.97%	▲ +5.18%
NVDA NVIDIA	212.06	▲ +2.30%	▼ -0.21%	▲ +1.63%
META Meta	627.17	▼ -2.58%	▼ -7.95%	▲ +11.23%
TSLA Tesla	374.01	▼ -1.30%	▼ -5.18%	▼ -7.66%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,096.20	▼ -1.22%	▲ +2.77%	▼ -0.82%
XAG Silver	$59.11	▼ -1.51%	▲ +5.75%	▼ -4.69%
HG Copper	$6.45	▼ -0.02%	▲ +2.45%	▲ +5.03%
NG Natural Gas	$2.95	▲ +0.75%	▲ +3.11%	▼ -6.36%
CC Cocoa	$5,328.00	▼ -4.98%	▼ -7.13%	▲ +17.75%
KC Coffee	$316.65	▼ -4.61%	▼ -5.32%	▲ +14.31%
BZ Brent Oil	$86.40	▼ -8.15%	▲ +2.58%	▲ +12.09%

S&P 500 Sectors

Utilities

XLU

▲ +2.25%

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.44%

Energy

XLE

▲ +1.20%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +0.38%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.11%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.11%

Technology

XLK

▼ -0.28%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.42%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.51%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.74%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.75%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.32T

▼ -0.34%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.6%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$62.1B

DERIVATIVES DESK

$65,399

▼ -0.80%

Support Level

$63,985

Resistance Level

$66,194

Price at $65,399 is holding above support ($63,985), with resistance at $66,194.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0431%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.037%

24h High

-0.076%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rates stand at 0.0126% and ETH at 0.0214%, indicating that long positioning persists in perpetual futures but remains far from overheated territory. The Coinbase premium holding at -0.043 confirms that U.S. retail buyers remain on the sidelines, a headwind for near-term upside.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

38.34 ▲ +0.27

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.44

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0126%
ETH	▲ +0.0214%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	135.40M
ETH	52.26M
SOL	17.91M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

22 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+69.1M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+38.8M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+21.5M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total inflows of $69.1 million on July 22, with IBIT attracting $38.8 million and FBTC drawing $21.5 million. The sharp deceleration compared to prior sessions (July 21: $203.2M, July 20: $226.8M) suggests institutional buying pressure is cooling, as markets digest escalating geopolitical risks before committing fresh capital.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

22 Jul 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+72.7M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+53.5M

FETH (Fidelity)

+19.2M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$65,399.00	▼ -0.50%	▼ -0.80%	▲ +1.10%
ETH	$1,915.17	▼ -0.50%	▼ -0.10%	▼ -0.30%
XRP	$1.1300	▼ -0.20%	▲ +0.10%	▲ +1.80%
SOL	$77.0900	▼ -0.50%	▼ -0.10%	▼ -0.20%
TRX	$0.328946	▲ +0.00%	▲ +0.10%	▲ +1.40%
HYPE	$58.6300	▼ -0.80%	▲ +0.10%	▼ -12.30%
DOGE	$0.072166	▼ -0.50%	▼ -0.20%	▼ -2.50%
LINK	$8.5300	▼ -0.50%	▼ -0.90%	▲ +0.20%
TON	$1.5100	▲ +0.00%	▲ +0.00%	▼ -3.60%
SUI	$0.769628	▼ -0.10%	▲ +2.10%	▲ +2.10%

Houthis say they attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening new chokepoint in Iran war - Reuters

AI Insight: Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea threaten a critical global energy chokepoint, with Brent's five-day rally reflecting this risk premium being priced in. Rising energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures and push back the Fed's rate-cut timeline, creating additional headwinds for BTC and risk assets at a time when the 10-Year yield is already at 4.657%.

Reuters · 03:45

US military completes 12th straight night of strikes on Iran - Reuters

AI Insight: The U.S. military completing its 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran signals that the conflict is becoming chronic with no near-term resolution in sight. The simultaneous 7.7% spike in VIX reinforces the flight to safety narrative; gold's 7-day gain of 2.77% and the dollar's resilience around 101 DXY are consistent with this defensive rotation.

Reuters · 00:50

Euro heads for one-week high ahead of ECB policy decision - Reuters

AI Insight: The euro heading toward a one-week high ahead of the ECB decision suggests markets expect Lagarde to maintain a hawkish tone even if rates are held at 2.40%. With DXY relatively flat at 101.07, EUR strength is occurring despite dollar stability — a broadly neutral signal for crypto, though tighter European financial conditions add to the global risk-off backdrop.

NOCASHFLOW bulletin.

Read on Web

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.