NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
Fri, Jul 24 2026
RISK-OFF Middle East escalation drives oil above $90, bond yields surge, and markets retreat into defensive positioning.

Global markets are firmly in risk-off mode today. The U.S. military completing its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, combined with Trump's vow to punish Iran and the Houthis, has driven Brent crude to $92.67 (up over 5% on the week), reigniting inflation fears and battering bond markets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.70% while the 2-year hit 4.31%. VIX stands at 18.93, reflecting elevated anxiety. In crypto, Bitcoin holds near $65,453 while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 28 (Fear). BTC dominance at 56.8% shows relative resilience versus altcoins, with total crypto market cap at $2.31 trillion. Critically, the FOMC meeting is just 5 days away on July 29; oil-driven inflation pressure reinforces the 'higher for longer' rate narrative ahead of the Fed decision. Eurozone Flash PMI data from France and Germany due today could provide additional directional cues.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS
KRİPTO

Strategy's STRC Sales and Bitcoin Buying Machine Creaking

Michael Saylor's Strategy cut weekly Bitcoin purchases by two-thirds as preferred STRC shares trade below par value, building a $1.4 billion liquidity cushion.
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • Strategy SEC 8-K Filing - STRC Preferred Stock Sales — Recent SEC filing with STRC sales volume, pricing, and deployment details
  • Benchmark Research Note on Strategy — Benchmark's interpretation of STRC dropping below $83 and defense of $570 target
  • Strategy Q1 2026 10-Q — Preferred share financing structure, Bitcoin acquisition costs, and balance sheet impact
KRİPTO

Congress Set to Ban Digital Dollar: What It Means for Stablecoin Market

U.S. Congress is preparing to ban central bank digital currency (CBDC), strengthening the competitive advantage of private stablecoins (USDC, USDT).
Primary Sources / Reports:
  • House Financial Services Committee CBDC Ban Bill Text — Full text of the ban, scope and exceptions
  • Circle SEC 10-Q - USDC Reserve Income Disclosure — Details of Circle's revenue from USDC reserves and revenue-sharing mechanism
  • Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Breakdown — Coinbase's revenue from USDC transaction volume and market share
NASDAQ 100
28,617
▼ -0.01%
DXY
101.3370
▼ -0.09%
GOLD
$4,049
▲ +0.06%
10Y UST
4.70%
▲ +0.99%
VIX
18.9
▲ +1.23%
BTC
$65,453
▼ -0.40%
BTC.D
56.8%
—
F&G INDEX
28
Fear
TODAY'S CALENDAR
Next FOMC
Wed (5 days away)
 Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
Date Time (TRT) Event Country Prev Cons Actual
23 Jul Thu 15:15
Main Refinancing Rate
 EUR 2.40% 2.40% —
23 Jul Thu 15:15
Monetary Policy Statement
 EUR — — —
23 Jul Thu 15:30
Unemployment Claims
 USD 208K 211K —
24 Jul Fri 10:15
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
 EUR 50.7 51.0 —
24 Jul Fri 10:15
French Flash Services PMI
 EUR 47.4 47.5 —
24 Jul Fri 10:30
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
 EUR 50.0 50.4 —
24 Jul Fri 10:30
German Flash Services PMI
 EUR 46.8 49.0 —
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
AAPL Apple
 321.66 ▼ -1.30% ▼ -3.48% ▲ +9.30%
MSFT Microsoft
 381.58 ▼ -2.24% ▼ -4.87% ▲ +2.04%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)
 317.69 ▼ -7.13% ▼ -10.37% ▼ -8.22%
AMZN Amazon
 233.66 ▼ -4.57% ▼ -6.49% ▼ -0.19%
NVDA NVIDIA
 208.76 ▼ -1.56% ▲ +0.66% ▲ +4.36%
META Meta
 606.10 ▼ -3.36% ▼ -8.79% ▲ +7.81%
TSLA Tesla
 319.69 ▼ -14.52% ▼ -18.25% ▼ -16.23%
Asset Price 24H 7D 30D Trend
XAU Gold
 $4,049.20 ▲ +0.06% ▲ +0.91% ▲ +1.48%
XAG Silver
 $58.40 ▲ +1.04% ▲ +4.22% ▲ +0.60%
HG Copper
 $6.35 ▲ +0.71% ▲ +2.08% ▲ +6.84%
NG Natural Gas
 $2.91 ▼ -0.21% ▼ -0.03% ▼ -9.66%
CC Cocoa
 $5,301.00 ▼ -0.51% ▲ +1.63% ▲ +16.63%
KC Coffee
 $309.40 ▼ -2.29% ▼ -3.70% ▲ +7.45%
BZ Brent Oil
 $92.67 ▼ -7.97% ▲ +5.19% ▲ +25.67%
S&P 500 Sectors
Industrials
XLI
▲ +1.73%
Health Care
XLV
▲ +1.26%
Utilities
XLU
▲ +0.57%
Energy
XLE
▲ +0.30%
Real Estate
XLRE
▼ -0.13%
Financials
XLF
▼ -0.39%
Technology
XLK
▼ -1.01%
Materials
XLB
▼ -1.04%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▼ -1.39%
Communication
XLC
▼ -3.50%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▼ -4.61%
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.31T
▼ -0.24%
BTC DOMINANCE
56.8%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$63.4B
ETH/BTC RATIO
0.02895
▲ +0.49% (7D)
Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread widening to +39 basis points signals continued yield curve normalization, a process that the oil shock could accelerate further. The Semiconductor ETF SMH fell 1.15%, while the Copper/Gold ratio posted a +1.16% daily gain — a constructive signal for industrial demand — though the broader picture continues to weigh on overall risk appetite.
DERIVATIVES DESK
$65,453 ▼ -0.40%
Support Level
$64,018
Resistance Level
$66,227
Price at $65,453 is holding above support ($64,018), with resistance at $66,227.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.0744%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.046%
24h High
-0.107%
24h Low
08:0017:0002:0012:0021:0007:00 +0.107%0-0.107%
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
28 FEAR
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
3.35%
ETH Basis
1.69%
BTC annualized futures basis sits at a neutral 3.35%, suggesting no excessive leverage buildup in the market. However, SOL's funding rate at 0.266% is notably elevated, signaling crowded long positioning in that asset and a potential squeeze risk.
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$70,000
Deribit DVOL Index
38.17 ▼ -0.21
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.44
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
BTC▲ +0.0038%
ETH▲ +0.0047%
SOL▲ +0.2664%
Open Interest (OI)
BTC139.29M
ETH49.58M
SOL16.93M
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
23 Jul 2026
Outflow
Total Flow
-225.1M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-202.5M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-5.6M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
10 Jul14 Jul16 Jul20 Jul22 Jul23 Jul +$425M0-$425M
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total outflows of $225.1 million on July 23, with IBIT accounting for $202.5 million of that pressure. ETF outflows signal institutional selling and can create near-term headwinds for BTC price; whether this is a one-day blip following a strong inflow streak or the start of a trend reversal warrants close monitoring.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
23 Jul 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+26.3M
ETHA (BlackRock)
+8.5M
FETH (Fidelity)
+14.9M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset Price 1H 24H 7D
BTC 
 $65,453.00 ▲ +0.20% ▼ -0.40% ▲ +4.20%
ETH 
 $1,895.37 ▲ +0.40% ▼ -1.80% ▲ +3.50%
XRP 
 $1.1100 ▲ +0.30% ▼ -1.90% ▲ +3.10%
SOL 
 $76.0100 ▲ +0.10% ▼ -2.20% ▲ +1.90%
TRX 
 $0.331198 ▲ +0.20% ▲ +0.50% ▲ +2.60%
HYPE 
 $58.6500 ▲ +0.60% ▼ -0.20% ▼ -0.80%
DOGE 
 $0.069981 ▲ +0.20% ▼ -4.40% ▼ -3.10%
LINK 
 $8.5500 ▲ +0.30% ▼ -1.20% ▲ +3.50%
TON 
 $1.4700 ▲ +0.40% ▼ -3.00% ▲ +3.20%
SUI 
 $0.744142 ▲ +0.00% ▼ -3.00% ▲ +1.50%
TOP STORIES
Reuters · 04:38

Morning Bid: Oil batters bonds as AI burns cash - Reuters
AI Insight: Oil battering bonds while AI-heavy tech companies burn cash is a toxic combination for growth equities; with Alphabet down 7.1% and NASDAQ 100 futures in the red, the macro headwinds from rising energy costs are feeding directly into tech valuations.
Reuters · 04:00

Trump vows to punish Iran and Houthis for attacks in Red Sea - Reuters
AI Insight: Trump's threat to punish Iran and the Houthis keeps the geopolitical risk premium alive; in this environment, the persistently negative Coinbase premium (-0.07) confirms that U.S. institutional buyers remain on the sidelines, consistent with the ETF outflow data.
Reuters · 01:56

US military says it completed 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran - Reuters
AI Insight: The completion of the 13th consecutive night of U.S. strikes on Iran signals the conflict is becoming protracted rather than episodic; a sustained military campaign keeps oil supply risk elevated and complicates the Fed's inflation calculus ahead of the July 29 FOMC meeting.

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