NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Sat, Jul 25 2026

RISK-OFF Geopolitical escalation, ETF outflows, and negative funding rates suppress risk appetite.

Global markets are trading in a distinctly risk-off tone today. BTC hovers at $63,977 with a 24-hour loss of 2.0%; the 4-hour technical structure is flagged 'Bearish' with key support at $63,564. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in 'Fear' territory at 27, while total crypto market cap has slipped to $2.27T. On the macro front, the US 10-Year Treasury Yield holds elevated at 4.679%, VIX sits at 18.58, and NASDAQ 100 Futures are off 1.18% at 28,282. Critically, the FOMC meeting is just 4 days away on July 29; with the dot-plot median at 3.8%, any shift in forward guidance will be closely scrutinized. On the geopolitical front, escalating conflict in Yemen and ongoing Iran tensions have pushed Brent crude to $96.78, while gold at $4,067 reflects safe-haven demand.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

CRYPTO

Bitcoin ETF Two-Day Outflow Streak: Is Institutional Demand Breaking Down?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total outflow of $240.1 million on July 24, 2026, with IBIT alone accounting for $212.2 million in negative flows. Ethereum ETFs saw $70.7 million in outflows on the same day. The Coinbase premium has remained negative throughout the week, approaching -0.10 today, signaling retreat by both US retail and institutional buyers. BTC funding rate is negative (-0.0013), the fear/greed index stands at 27 (Fear), and the 4-hour trend is Bearish: the critical threshold to watch is whether the 63,564 support level holds.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside Bitcoin ETF Flow Data — Check the daily net flow table for IBIT, FBTC, and other funds on July 24–25 rows to assess whether outflow momentum is accelerating.
Farside Ethereum ETF Flow Data — Compare ETHA and FETH daily flow columns to determine whether ETH outflows are developing in tandem with BTC or independently.
Coinglass Derivatives Data — Review BTC and ETH open interest changes and funding rate history; assess what the combination of negative funding and ETF outflows has historically implied for price action.

POLICY

Iran-US Tensions and Tanker Attack in Gulf Waters: Where Is Geopolitical Risk Priced?

A Mozambique-flagged LPG tanker attacked in Iranian waters, Saudi coalition airstrikes on Houthi targets in Hodeidah, and Trump's statement that 'Iran is talking but not yet ready for a deal' all converged on the same day. This triple signal points to a concrete disruption risk for crude oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In market data, the energy sector (XLE) rose only 0.40% today while the VIX retreated to 18.6, suggesting geopolitical risk is not yet fully priced in. Key signals to watch: Hormuz transit volumes and a sudden widening of the Brent-WTI spread.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Mozambique-Flagged LPG Tanker Attack — Read the location of the attack, vessel owner, and cargo type; note Iran's official stance on the incident.
Reuters — Trump: Iran Not Yet Ready for Deal — Note Trump's framing of the negotiation timeline and any hints about conditions; evaluate the context of the phrase 'not yet ready'.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Review crude oil and refined product inventory changes; assess how long the US inventory buffer could absorb a Gulf supply disruption scenario.

MACRO

4 Days to July 29 FOMC: Is the 10-Year Yield and 2s10s Spread Contradicting Market Expectations?

With four days to go before the July 29 FOMC meeting, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.679 (daily change -0.51 bps) while the 2-year held at 4.37, pushing the 2s10s spread to 30.9 bps. The Fed's 2026 dot median stands at 3.80 — does current market pricing align with that path? In this elevated yield environment, NASDAQ 100 futures fell 1.18% while the semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped 3.27%, illustrating the transmission of long-end rate pressure to growth equities. Key signal to watch: whether CME FedWatch keeps July cut probability near zero and what September pricing implies for the easing cycle.

Primary Sources / Reports:

CME FedWatch Tool — Check the probability table for rate changes at the July 29 meeting and the implied cut expectations for September 2026; compare with the prior week's pricing.
Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Review any preparatory materials published for the July 29 meeting and prior meeting minutes; assess whether the emphasis on 'data dependence' has shifted.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Download the 2-year and 10-year yield series for the last 5 business days and chart how the 2s10s spread has moved in the pre-FOMC window.

NASDAQ 100

28,282

▼ -1.18%

DXY

101.4700

▲ +0.04%

GOLD

$4,068

▲ +0.52%

10Y UST

4.68%

▼ -0.51%

VIX

18.6

▼ -0.64%

BTC

$63,977

▼ -2.00%

BTC.D

56.5%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (4 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Main Refinancing Rate	EUR	2.40%	2.40%	—
23 Jul Thu	15:15	Monetary Policy Statement	EUR	—	—	—
23 Jul Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	208K	211K	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.7	51.0	—
24 Jul Fri	10:15	French Flash Services PMI	EUR	47.4	47.5	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.0	50.4	—
24 Jul Fri	10:30	German Flash Services PMI	EUR	46.8	49.0	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	333.02	▲ +3.53%	▼ -0.22%	▲ +13.63%
MSFT Microsoft	381.70	▲ +0.03%	▼ -3.08%	▲ +4.44%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	319.74	▲ +0.65%	▼ -7.79%	▼ -7.40%
AMZN Amazon	232.11	▼ -0.66%	▼ -6.12%	▼ -0.92%
NVDA NVIDIA	206.84	▼ -0.92%	▲ +1.99%	▲ +3.94%
META Meta	595.19	▼ -1.80%	▼ -7.87%	▲ +6.73%
TSLA Tesla	313.03	▼ -2.08%	▼ -17.81%	▼ -16.64%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,067.60	▲ +0.52%	▲ +1.37%	▲ +1.94%
XAG Silver	$58.66	▲ +1.48%	▲ +4.67%	▲ +1.04%
HG Copper	$6.32	▲ +0.24%	▲ +1.61%	▲ +6.34%
NG Natural Gas	$2.87	▼ -1.54%	▼ -1.37%	▼ -10.87%
CC Cocoa	$5,376.00	▲ +1.41%	▼ -2.84%	▲ +9.67%
KC Coffee	$313.80	▲ +1.42%	▼ -4.46%	▲ +7.63%
BZ Brent Oil	$96.78	▼ -3.88%	▲ +9.85%	▲ +31.24%

S&P 500 Sectors

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +2.22%

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.93%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +1.11%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.87%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.86%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.70%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.60%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.40%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.40%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.22%

Technology

XLK

▼ -1.44%

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.27T

▼ -1.85%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.5%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$59.0B

DERIVATIVES DESK

$63,977

▼ -2.00%

Support Level

$63,564

Resistance Level

$65,492

Price at $63,977 is holding above support ($63,564), with resistance at $65,492.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0997%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.072%

24h High

-0.112%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

0.00%

ETH Basis

0.00%

BTC funding rates have turned notably negative at -0.00133, with ETH at -0.00302, signaling that perpetual futures are dominated by short positioning and the market is pricing in further downside. SOL's extreme negative funding of -0.433 warrants attention as a potential short-squeeze setup.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

37.07 ▼ -0.65

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.43

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▼ -0.0013%
ETH	▼ -0.0030%
SOL	▼ -0.4331%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	137.80M
ETH	48.62M
SOL	15.55M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

24 Jul 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-240.1M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-212.2M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-27.9M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of -$240.1M on July 24, with IBIT alone accounting for -$212.2M of that total. Two consecutive days of net outflows (July 23: -$225.1M, July 24: -$240.1M) indicate institutional de-risking and add near-term selling pressure to BTC price.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

24 Jul 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-70.7M

ETHA (BlackRock)

-52.8M

FETH (Fidelity)

-27.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$63,977.00	▼ -0.10%	▼ -2.00%	▲ +0.00%
ETH	$1,856.26	▼ -0.10%	▼ -1.30%	▲ +0.60%
XRP	$1.0870	▼ -0.20%	▼ -1.80%	▲ +0.10%
SOL	$73.8000	▲ +0.00%	▼ -2.30%	▼ -1.30%
TRX	$0.329458	▼ -0.10%	▲ +0.00%	▲ +2.40%
HYPE	$57.2900	▲ +0.00%	▼ -2.20%	▼ -2.70%
DOGE	$0.069276	▲ +0.00%	▲ +0.30%	▼ -4.00%
LINK	$8.2900	▼ -0.20%	▼ -1.60%	▲ +0.70%
TON	$1.4700	▲ +0.00%	▲ +0.50%	▼ -0.90%
SUI	$0.702831	▼ -0.70%	▼ -4.90%	▼ -4.00%

Saudi-led coalition says it strikes Houthi targets in Yemen's Hodeidah - Reuters

AI Insight: The Saudi-led coalition's strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah port reignite risks to Red Sea trade routes, serving as a key driver behind Brent crude's move to $96.78 and keeping short-term upward pressure alive in energy markets.

Reuters · 21:15

Yemen teeters towards renewed war in shadow of Iran conflict - Reuters

AI Insight: The growing probability of Yemen sliding back into full-scale war deepens the risk of Iran's regional conflict spilling over, representing a significant tail risk for global energy supply and supporting demand for safe-haven assets like gold and oil.

Reuters · 20:37

Trump says he trusts Russia and China's leaders not to enable Iran - Reuters

AI Insight: Trump's statement that he trusts Russia and China not to enable Iran offers a short-term de-escalation signal; however, markets remain cautious about pricing in this rhetoric without concrete diplomatic follow-through.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.