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NOCASHFLOW
DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETINGlobal Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
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Sun, Aug 2 2026
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NEUTRAL
Macro uncertainty and ETF outflows keep markets in neutral territory; this week's NFP data will be the key directional catalyst.
Global markets are sending mixed signals amid growing uncertainty over Fed policy and a weakening dollar. DXY slipped to 99.80, marking its worst weekly performance in over three months, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.74% — a divergence that reflects a repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations. VIX at 15.99 remains subdued, while NASDAQ 100 futures edged up +0.59%, painting a cautiously optimistic equity picture. In crypto, the tone is more defensive: the Fear & Greed Index sits at 27 in 'Fear' territory, BTC trades at $63,444 with a -1.4% seven-day decline, and BTC dominance holds steady at 56.3%. Looking ahead, this week's slate of macro releases — ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, ADP Employment, and Non-Farm Payrolls — will directly shape market pricing ahead of the September FOMC meeting, with the Fed's dot plot median at 3.8% and 45 days remaining until the next decision.
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NASDAQ 100
28,404
▲ +0.59%
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DXY
99.8000
▼ -0.21%
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GOLD
$4,107
▲ +0.17%
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10Y UST
4.74%
▲ +1.76%
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VIX
16.0
▼ -6.44%
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BTC
$63,444
▲ +0.70%
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BTC.D
56.3%
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F&G INDEX
27
Fear
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TODAY'S CALENDAR
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Next FOMC
Wed (45 days away)
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Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
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| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug Mon | 17:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
USD | 53.3 | 54.0 | — |
| 04 Aug Tue | 17:00 | JOLTS Job Openings |
USD | 7.59M | 7.42M | — |
| 05 Aug Wed | 15:15 | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
USD | 98K | 71K | — |
| 05 Aug Wed | 17:00 | ISM Services PMI |
USD | 54.0 | 54.5 | — |
| 06 Aug Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 197K | 205K | — |
| 07 Aug Fri | 15:30 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM |
USD | 0.3% | 0.3% | — |
| 07 Aug Fri | 15:30 | Non-Farm Employment Change |
USD | 57K | 88K | — |
| 07 Aug Fri | 15:30 | Unemployment Rate |
USD | 4.2% | 4.2% | — |
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
308.91 | ▼ -7.35% | ▼ -7.24% | ▲ +4.94% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
464.72 | ▲ +3.02% | ▲ +21.75% | ▲ +20.93% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
356.13 | ▲ +6.73% | ▲ +11.38% | ▼ -1.41% | |
AMZN Amazon |
271.58 | ▲ +15.32% | ▲ +17.00% | ▲ +12.36% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
200.75 | ▲ +2.93% | ▼ -2.94% | ▲ +1.60% | |
META Meta |
556.71 | ▲ +3.28% | ▼ -6.47% | ▼ -9.17% | |
TSLA Tesla |
311.21 | ▲ +0.76% | ▼ -0.58% | ▼ -26.83% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,107.00 | ▲ +0.17% | ▲ +0.97% | ▲ +0.95% | |
XAG Silver |
$57.79 | ▼ -1.75% | ▼ -1.48% | ▼ -3.83% | |
HG Copper |
$6.47 | ▲ +0.33% | ▲ +2.30% | ▲ +5.59% | |
NG Natural Gas |
$2.75 | ▼ -0.40% | ▼ -4.32% | ▼ -14.69% | |
CC Cocoa |
$5,537.00 | ▲ +8.31% | ▲ +2.99% | ▲ +10.61% | |
KC Coffee |
$313.55 | ▼ -2.94% | ▼ -0.08% | ▼ -3.31% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$90.12 | ▲ +1.22% | ▼ -6.88% | ▲ +25.92% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▲ +3.29%
Communication
XLC
▲ +1.56%
Energy
XLE
▲ +1.00%
Industrials
XLI
▲ +0.81%
Financials
XLF
▼ -0.11%
Technology
XLK
▼ -0.22%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▼ -0.49%
Real Estate
XLRE
▼ -0.51%
Health Care
XLV
▼ -0.59%
Utilities
XLU
▼ -0.69%
Materials
XLB
▼ -2.34%
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.26T
▲ +0.56%
BTC DOMINANCE
56.3%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$37.6B
Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y Treasury spread at +51.5 basis points signals ongoing yield curve normalization and reduced recession fears, a broadly supportive macro backdrop. The combined stablecoin market cap of $255.2 billion represents substantial dry powder that could re-enter crypto markets if sentiment shifts, making it a key variable to monitor alongside ETF flow trends.
DERIVATIVES DESK
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Price at $63,444 is holding above support ($62,889), with resistance at $64,624.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.1079%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.082%
24h High
-0.115%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
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ETH Basis
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BTC funding rates stand at 0.0117% and ETH at 0.0290%, both in positive territory, indicating a moderate long bias in perpetual futures markets. These levels are far from overheating, which limits the risk of a sudden long liquidation cascade in the near term.
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$70,000
Deribit DVOL Index
35.21 ▼ -0.28
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.53
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
| BTC | ▲ +0.0117% |
| ETH | ▲ +0.0290% |
| SOL | — |
Open Interest (OI)
| BTC | 120.93M |
| ETH | 43.11M |
| SOL | 16.48M |
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
31 Jul 2026
Outflow
Total Flow
-265.4M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-122.7M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-54.8M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETF flows for July 31 showed a total net outflow of -$265.4M, with IBIT leading at -$122.7M and FBTC at -$54.8M — a clear signal of institutional selling pressure. Notably, the strong $233.1M inflow seen on July 30 proved short-lived, reinforcing the fragility of the recent recovery in institutional demand.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
31 Jul 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+9.0M
ETHA (BlackRock)
+0.0M
FETH (Fidelity)
-1.9M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$63,444.00 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +0.70% | ▼ -1.40% |
ETH |
$1,874.90 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +0.60% | ▼ -0.40% |
XRP |
$1.0830 | ● 0.00% | ▲ +1.80% | ▼ -1.50% |
SOL |
$73.4300 | ▼ -0.20% | ▲ +0.70% | ▼ -2.10% |
TRX |
$0.328203 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +0.40% | ▼ -0.90% |
HYPE |
$51.9700 | ▼ -0.50% | ▲ +1.00% | ▼ -11.10% |
DOGE |
$0.070323 | ▼ -0.20% | ▲ +0.30% | ▼ -4.20% |
LINK |
$8.3800 | ▼ -0.10% | ▲ +2.30% | ▼ -0.80% |
TON |
$1.4000 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +0.80% | ▼ -6.70% |
AVAX |
$6.5800 | ▲ +0.40% | ▲ +3.20% | ▼ -2.70% |
TOP STORIES
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CNBC · 13:44
Looking at just the odds isn’t enough. How traders gain an edge on prediction marketsGaining an edge on prediction markets requires speed and skills beyond just reading the odds on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
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CNBC · 12:00
OpenAI's Hugging Face hack confirmed months of AI cyber warnings: 'Pandora's box is open'The wake-up call to the cyber industry comes as industry experts descend on Black Hat, a major cybersecurity conference.
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AI Insight: The confirmed hack of OpenAI's Hugging Face platform underscores systemic cybersecurity vulnerabilities within AI infrastructure, potentially strengthening the narrative around decentralized compute tokens like RENDER while simultaneously dampening institutional confidence in centralized AI platforms. This development is also a risk factor worth monitoring for semiconductor ETFs like SMH, given the broader implications for AI infrastructure spending and trust.
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Bloomberg · 06:15
Bloomberg puts off adding Indian bonds to its global indexBloomberg delays adding Indian bonds to its global index, disappointing traders and prompting expected selling in the bond market.
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AI Insight: Bloomberg's decision to delay the inclusion of Indian bonds in its global index highlights that institutional appetite for emerging market debt remains more selective than anticipated. Combined with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.74%, this reinforces a broader risk-off tilt in fixed income markets that could continue to weigh on risk appetite across asset classes.
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