NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Mon, Aug 10 2026

NEUTRAL The market outlook remains neutral: low volatility and ETF inflows support risk appetite, but fear, geopolitical risks, and inflation uncertainty keep the balance in check.

Global markets remain balanced as Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.28% and SMH gained 1.96%, while the VIX fell 1.65% to 14.90, indicating limited near-term stress. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.66% while the 2-year yield rose to 4.25%, leaving the 2s10s spread at 0.41 percentage points; the DXY edged 0.09% higher to 99.69. Total crypto market capitalization increased 0.41% to $2.31 trillion, with BTC up 0.5% at $65,221, but the Fear & Greed reading remains in the Fear zone at 30 and BTC dominance stands at 56.70%. U.S. CPI due on August 12 is forecast at 3.4% year over year for headline inflation and 2.5% for core inflation, while PPI on August 13 will also be important for Fed expectations. Gold rose 1.72% while Brent was broadly flat; Middle East supply risks and the upcoming inflation data keep the neutral regime vulnerable to a directional break.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Is Hormuz rhetoric becoming a real supply shock?

Iran tying the reopening of Hormuz to U.S. concessions, alongside the Yemen attack, warrants an investigation into whether the oil market’s geopolitical risk premium is becoming persistent. The key test is whether higher oil prices are confirmed by EIA data on inventories, production and trade flows, and how China’s role in balancing Asian crude demand changes regional flows.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US concessions on several demands - Reuters — Examine Iran’s conditions for reopening Hormuz and the geopolitical nature of transit risk.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check crude inventories, refinery utilization, production and trade flows for evidence of a supply disruption.
Reuters — China is balancing Asia's crude oil demand by itself - Reuters — Investigate how China’s balancing of Asian crude demand is reshaping regional supply, demand and trade routes.

MACRO

What inflation scenario is the Treasury market pricing ahead of CPI?

Ahead of the U.S. CPI release on August 12, the 10-year yield has fallen to 4.66% while the 2-year yield has risen to 4.25%, highlighting tension between longer-term growth/risk views and near-term Fed expectations. The research question is how a core CPI reading above or below the 0.2% monthly forecast would affect front-end rates, the 99.69 DXY level and CME FedWatch pricing; the key threshold is the deviation from 0.2% month over month.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Review headline and core monthly/yearly CPI results on August 12, focusing on the deviation from the 0.2% core monthly forecast.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Track post-CPI moves in 2-year and 10-year yields and changes from the 0.41% 2s10s spread.
CME FedWatch Tool — Check how the CPI surprise changes rate expectations and probability distributions for the next FOMC meeting.

CRYPTO

Is the crypto rally driven by institutional flows or leverage?

Total crypto market capitalization rose 0.41% over 24 hours, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $101.7 million and $49.6 million respectively; however, the Coinbase premium fell to -0.135%, pointing to weaker U.S. spot demand. The research question is whether ETF buying is persistent enough to support prices; key levels are a continuing negative Coinbase premium, BTC’s $63,786.84 support and whether ETH funding rises from 0.0128%.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Examine whether the $101.7 million total Bitcoin ETF inflow on August 7 is continuing and how flows are distributed across funds.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Check whether the $49.6 million Ethereum ETF inflow is persisting, including the ETHA and FETH split.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Track BTC and ETH funding rates and open interest to determine whether ETF demand is being amplified by leverage, focusing on ETH funding at 0.0128% and the direction of current open interest.

NASDAQ 100

29,918

▲ +0.28%

DXY

99.6860

▲ +0.09%

GOLD

$4,415

▲ +1.72%

10Y UST

4.66%

▼ -0.21%

VIX

14.9

▼ -1.65%

BTC

$65,221

▲ +0.50%

BTC.D

56.7%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (37 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
12 Aug Wed	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.0%	0.2%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.6%	2.5%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	-0.4%	0.1%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	3.5%	3.4%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.3%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	-0.3%	0.2%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	199K	202K	—
14 Aug Fri	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Aug Fri	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.2%	0.1%	—
14 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	54.4	54.4	—
14 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.2%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	313.33	▲ +0.29%	▲ +1.43%	▼ -0.91%
MSFT Microsoft	499.99	▲ +0.03%	▲ +7.59%	▲ +30.08%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	354.30	▼ -0.96%	▼ -0.51%	▼ -1.28%
AMZN Amazon	274.48	▲ +0.82%	▲ +1.07%	▲ +11.11%
NVDA NVIDIA	223.96	▲ +2.27%	▲ +11.56%	▲ +10.44%
META Meta	592.10	▲ +0.37%	▲ +6.36%	▼ -6.24%
TSLA Tesla	328.58	▲ +2.83%	▲ +5.58%	▼ -19.18%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,415.20	▲ +1.72%	▲ +9.46%	▲ +7.58%
XAG Silver	$64.39	▲ +1.67%	▲ +11.66%	▲ +7.66%
HG Copper	$6.63	▲ +0.93%	▲ +1.80%	▲ +6.38%
NG Natural Gas	$2.75	▲ +3.38%	▼ -1.04%	▼ -6.39%
CC Cocoa	$5,782.00	▲ +0.10%	▲ +7.13%	▼ -8.35%
KC Coffee	$335.55	▲ +4.32%	▲ +1.04%	▼ -6.00%
BZ Brent Oil	$83.56	▲ +0.01%	▼ -0.25%	▲ +9.93%

S&P 500 Sectors

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +1.49%

Technology

XLK

▲ +1.42%

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.32%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.75%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.53%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +0.38%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.23%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.06%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +0.01%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.36%

Energy

XLE

▼ -1.13%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.75T

▲ +0.15% w/w

US M2 MONEY SUPPLY

$23.16T

▲ +0.43% m/m

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$255.3B

▲ +0.01% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.31T

▲ +0.41%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.7%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$38.9B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.77T

Analyst Note: A 0.41 percentage-point 2s10s spread and a 1.96% rise in SMH provide selective support for growth assets. However, the Copper/Gold indicator fell 6.99% and total stablecoin market capitalization increased only 0.0074% over 24 hours, suggesting that risk appetite is not broad-based.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$65,221

▲ +0.50%

Support Level

$63,787

Resistance Level

$65,374

Price at $65,221 is holding above support ($63,787), with resistance at $65,374.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1353%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.063%

24h High

-0.135%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC and ETH funding rates are positive at 0.0049% and 0.0128%, respectively, indicating that longs are paying a modest premium without clear evidence of excessive leverage. Crypto futures basis data is unavailable, so no broader conclusion about futures premiums can be drawn.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

34.27 ▼ -0.33

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.58

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0049%
ETH	▲ +0.0128%
SOL	—

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	152.30M
ETH	51.86M
SOL	22.38M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

07 Aug 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+101.7M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+86.7M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+41.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: IBIT recorded $86.7 million of inflows and FBTC $41.0 million, producing total inflows of $101.7 million and moderate buying pressure. Positive spot ETF flows support institutional demand, but they should be assessed alongside price action and the Coinbase premium; the current -0.1353% premium points to subdued U.S. spot demand.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

07 Aug 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+49.6M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+38.1M

FETH (Fidelity)

+11.5M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$65,221.00	▲ +0.20%	▲ +0.50%	▲ +3.70%
ETH	$1,926.20	▲ +0.40%	▲ +0.50%	▲ +3.60%
XRP	$1.0370	▲ +0.40%	▼ -0.30%	▼ -3.30%
SOL	$76.9300	▲ +0.40%	▲ +1.10%	▲ +5.50%
TRX	$0.329624	● 0.00%	▲ +0.10%	▲ +1.30%
HYPE	$54.5300	▲ +0.60%	▼ -0.90%	▲ +3.80%
DOGE	$0.070026	▲ +0.40%	▼ -0.10%	▲ +0.30%
LINK	$8.2200	▲ +0.50%	▼ -0.80%	▼ -0.20%
TON	$1.3400	▼ -0.30%	▼ -0.70%	▼ -4.80%
SUI	$0.694735	▲ +0.90%	▲ +0.30%	▲ +1.10%

China is balancing Asia's crude oil demand by itself - Reuters

AI Insight: China’s role in balancing Asian crude demand highlights its growing weight in the region’s demand structure; however, Brent holding near $83.56 while gold advanced strongly shows that markets are pricing growth support and geopolitical risks simultaneously.

Reuters · 23:24

Alleged Irish crime boss Kinahan charged with directing criminal organisation - Reuters

AI Insight: The Kinahan criminal-organization case is more relevant as a European law-and-security development than as a direct macro catalyst; low VIX and positive ETF flows indicate that its immediate impact on global risk assets remains limited.

Reuters · 23:03

Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US concessions on several demands - Reuters

AI Insight: Iran’s decision to link the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to U.S. concessions prolongs geopolitical uncertainty around energy transportation. Brent’s 9.93% 30-day gain increases the importance of supply risks for inflation expectations and the August 12 CPI release.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.