NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Tue, Aug 11 2026

RISK-OFF The risk-off regime is reinforced by crypto outflows, rising volatility and geopolitical energy risks.

Market conditions remain defensive: the VIX rose 3.76% to 15.46, while the US 10-year Treasury yield increased 0.84% to 4.70%. Although the DXY was broadly steady at 99.84, a 7.40% decline in the copper-to-gold ratio and a 2.28% drop in SMH point to pressure on growth-sensitive assets. Total crypto market capitalization fell 1.64% to $2.27 trillion, with Bitcoin down 1.6% at $63,865; the Fear & Greed Index stands at 29, in Fear territory, while Bitcoin dominance is 56.51%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total outflows of $144.6 million, including $53.6 million from IBIT and $40.3 million from FBTC, signaling weaker institutional demand in the short term. US CPI is due on August 12, with headline and core annual forecasts at 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively; August 13 PPI data will also be critical for risk appetite through its impact on inflation expectations and Treasury yields.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Is the Iran standoff becoming a persistent oil-supply risk premium?

Uncertainty around US-Iran talks and China’s role in balancing Asian crude demand put geopolitical risk and physical demand in focus at the same time. Examine EIA inventories and supply flows alongside whether oil can hold its one-week highs and whether the 4.66% rise in XLE proves durable.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Oil steadies near one-week highs as US-Iran peace deal hopes dim - Reuters — Assess how the US-Iran negotiating stalemate is feeding an oil-price risk premium and supply concerns.
Reuters — China is balancing Asia's crude oil demand by itself - Reuters — Investigate China’s role in balancing Asian crude demand and the implications for regional supply and demand.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check crude inventories, refinery utilization, imports, exports and product demand for evidence that the geopolitical shock is reaching the physical market.

MACRO

Do CPI, Treasury yields and Fed pricing point to the same inflation signal?

The August 12 CPI will test how closely inflation moves toward market expectations of 3.4% headline and 2.5% core year over year, versus previous readings of 3.5% and 2.6%. The key research question is how a core monthly print above or below the 0.2% forecast would affect the Fed path and risk assets while the 10-year yield is at 4.699% and the 2-year yield at 4.19%.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Review the August 12 headline and core monthly/yearly readings, including shelter and services components, and measure the surprise versus the 0.2% core monthly forecast.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Track the post-CPI direction of the 2-year and 10-year yields from current levels of 4.19% and 4.699%, along with changes in the 2s10s spread.
CME FedWatch Tool — Check how the CPI surprise changes rate-cut or higher-for-longer pricing ahead of the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting.

CRYPTO

Do ETF outflows and a negative Coinbase premium signal a crypto-liquidity regime shift?

Net outflows of $144.6 million from Bitcoin ETFs and $14.6 million from Ethereum ETFs, a 1.64% daily decline in total crypto market capitalization and a Coinbase premium of -0.0599 point to weaker institutional spot demand. Track whether BTC holds the 63,682.2 support or reclaims the 64,693.53 resistance, and whether open-interest declines of 6.66% in BTC and 1.22% in ETH represent leverage cleanup or the start of another selling wave.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Verify the $144.6 million total outflow on August 10 and the IBIT and FBTC contributions, then monitor whether outflows continue.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Check the $14.6 million net Ethereum ETF outflow on August 10 and the ETHA/FETH contributions.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Examine BTC, ETH and SOL open interest and funding-rate direction to test whether the 6.66% BTC open-interest decline reflects orderly deleveraging or a support-breaking selloff.

NASDAQ 100

29,785

▲ +0.16%

DXY

99.8390

▲ +0.03%

GOLD

$4,433

▲ +1.62%

10Y UST

4.70%

▲ +0.84%

VIX

15.5

▲ +3.76%

BTC

$63,865

▼ -1.60%

BTC.D

56.5%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (36 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
12 Aug Wed	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.0%	0.2%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.6%	2.5%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	-0.4%	0.1%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	3.5%	3.4%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.3%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	-0.3%	0.2%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	199K	203K	—
14 Aug Fri	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Aug Fri	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.2%	0.1%	—
14 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	54.4	54.7	—
14 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.2%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	308.26	▼ -1.53%	▲ +1.68%	▼ -2.15%
MSFT Microsoft	506.06	▲ +1.21%	▲ +3.78%	▲ +31.41%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	357.52	▲ +0.91%	▼ -4.28%	▲ +0.10%
AMZN Amazon	278.09	▲ +1.32%	▼ -2.09%	▲ +13.35%
NVDA NVIDIA	217.55	▼ -2.86%	▲ +5.28%	▲ +3.12%
META Meta	594.92	▲ +0.48%	▲ +0.79%	▼ -11.10%
TSLA Tesla	330.88	▲ +0.70%	▲ +2.73%	▼ -18.85%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,432.60	▲ +1.62%	▲ +8.23%	▲ +10.90%
XAG Silver	$64.87	▼ -0.36%	▲ +8.02%	▲ +12.56%
HG Copper	$6.63	▲ +0.59%	▲ +0.23%	▲ +6.43%
NG Natural Gas	$2.79	▼ -0.25%	▲ +3.91%	▼ -3.80%
CC Cocoa	$5,821.00	▲ +0.67%	▼ -1.99%	▼ -1.66%
KC Coffee	$332.30	▼ -0.97%	▲ +4.01%	▼ -3.12%
BZ Brent Oil	$88.07	▲ +0.40%	▲ +10.98%	▲ +5.73%

S&P 500 Sectors

Energy

XLE

▲ +4.66%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +1.67%

Materials

XLB

▲ +0.61%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.52%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.36%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.16%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.20%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.31%

Technology

XLK

▼ -0.88%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -1.10%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -1.29%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.75T

▲ +0.15% w/w

US M2 MONEY SUPPLY

$23.16T

▲ +0.43% m/m

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$255.3B

▼ -0.01% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.27T

▼ -1.64%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.5%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$50.7B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.76T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread remains positive at 0.509 points, but the 1.41% decline in the 2-year yield alongside a 0.84% rise in the 10-year yield suggests that longer-term inflation and supply risks are gaining prominence. Stablecoin market capitalization fell 0.0072%, while the 2.28% decline in SMH reinforces weaker liquidity and technology-sector risk appetite.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$63,865

▼ -1.60%

Support Level

$63,682

Resistance Level

$64,694

Price at $63,865 is holding above support ($63,682), with resistance at $64,694.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0599%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.060%

24h High

-0.125%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

Crypto futures basis data is unavailable. BTC and ETH funding remain positive, while SOL funding is -0.0333%; open interest declined 6.66% in BTC, 1.22% in ETH and 3.86% in SOL, indicating deleveraging.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

36.02 ▲ +1.66

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.57

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0026%
ETH	▲ +0.0037%
SOL	▼ -0.0333%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	142.15M ▼ -6.66%
ETH	51.23M ▼ -1.22%
SOL	21.52M ▼ -3.86%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

10 Aug 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-144.6M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-53.6M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-40.3M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw total outflows of $144.6 million, including $53.6 million from IBIT and $40.3 million from FBTC. Positive flows indicate buying pressure, while negative flows signal selling or risk reduction; the current pattern should therefore be read cautiously in the short term.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

10 Aug 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-14.6M

ETHA (BlackRock)

-23.8M

FETH (Fidelity)

-3.3M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$63,865.00	● 0.00%	▼ -1.60%	● 0.00%
ETH	$1,870.78	▼ -0.10%	▼ -2.20%	▲ +0.40%
XRP	$1.0070	▼ -0.20%	▼ -2.10%	▼ -6.30%
SOL	$75.8800	▼ -0.40%	▼ -1.00%	▲ +2.80%
TRX	$0.331404	● 0.00%	▲ +0.50%	▲ +0.90%
HYPE	$55.2600	▼ -0.40%	▲ +2.40%	▲ +1.50%
DOGE	$0.070074	▲ +0.20%	▲ +0.50%	▼ -0.20%
LINK	$8.4100	▲ +0.50%	▲ +2.70%	▲ +2.50%
TON	$1.3200	▼ -0.20%	▼ -0.90%	▼ -4.80%
AVAX	$6.5000	▼ -0.50%	▼ -0.10%	▼ -5.40%

China is balancing Asia's crude oil demand by itself - Reuters

AI Insight: China balancing Asia's crude demand on its own suggests that regional demand and supply flows are becoming more China-centric. Brent's 0.40% daily and 10.98% weekly gains, combined with ETF outflows and Bitcoin's 1.6% decline, indicate that energy-driven inflation risk could weigh on risk assets.

Reuters · 01:41

Oil prices rise, Asia stocks drift on US-Iran stalemate - Reuters

AI Insight: The US-Iran stalemate supporting oil while Asian equities drift reflects geopolitical risk outweighing growth expectations. The rise in the VIX to 15.46, the 10-year yield at 4.70% and a Coinbase premium of -0.0599% all corroborate a risk-reduction bias.

Reuters · 00:48

Gold rises for third straight session, inflation prints in focus - Reuters

AI Insight: Gold's third consecutive session of gains, with inflation data in focus, shows investors seeking protection against both geopolitical uncertainty and renewed price pressure. Gold's 1.62% daily and 8.23% weekly gains, alongside the 7.40% decline in the copper-to-gold ratio, support a defensive rotation.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.