NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Wed, Aug 12 2026

NEUTRAL Macro uncertainty and cautious crypto sentiment are balanced by selective risk appetite, keeping markets in a neutral regime.

Markets are showing a cautious tone ahead of US inflation data and amid geopolitical tensions. VIX at 15.28 has eased, while the DXY at 99.87 edged higher and the US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.684%; the 2-year yield was 4.25%, leaving the 2s10s spread at 0.434 percentage points. Total crypto market capitalization fell 0.07% over 24 hours to $2.27T, Bitcoin dominance remained at 56.27%, and Fear & Greed stayed in Fear at 27. Bitcoin declined 0.3% while Ethereum gained 0.8%; Bitcoin ETFs recorded only a modest $7.8M net inflow, while Ethereum ETFs saw a $1.7M net outflow. Today's CPI is expected at 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, with core CPI at 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year; tomorrow's PPI expectations will also be important for Fed pricing and risk assets.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

MACRO

The post-CPI rate path: what is the Treasury market pricing?

Today’s CPI will test whether geopolitical energy pressure is altering the inflation outlook and Fed pricing. Focus on the deviation of core CPI from the 0.2% monthly forecast, the reaction in the 2-year yield at 4.25% and the 10-year yield at 4.684%, and any repricing in CME FedWatch expectations.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Review headline and core monthly and annual rates, energy components, and shelter services in the CPI release.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Compare the daily move in the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields after CPI and assess the curve repricing.
CME FedWatch Tool — Check meeting-by-meeting Fed rate probabilities before and after CPI and measure changes in the expected policy path.

COMMODITIES

Is US-Iran tension making the energy risk premium durable?

Doubts over a US-Iran deal and attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman require testing whether higher oil prices reflect a temporary headline premium or emerging physical supply and shipping risk. The concrete signal to track is whether EIA data on inventories, production, trade, and refinery utilization collectively point to tightening supply.

Primary Sources / Reports:

EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Review crude and product inventories, US production, imports and exports, refinery utilization, and product demand to test the physical basis of the price move.
Reuters — Oil rises as doubts over US-Iran deal heighten supply concerns - reuters.com — Read how uncertainty around US-Iran talks is translating into oil risk through supply and transit channels.
Reuters — Four crew, two rescuers killed in Red Sea attack; US strikes ship in Gulf of Oman - reuters.com — Separate the impact of Red Sea and Gulf of Oman incidents on shipping, insurance, and regional supply-chain risk.

NASDAQ 100

29,725

▲ +0.33%

DXY

99.8740

▲ +0.05%

GOLD

$4,458

▲ +1.71%

10Y UST

4.68%

▼ -0.32%

VIX

15.3

▼ -1.16%

BTC

$63,591

▼ -0.30%

BTC.D

56.3%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (35 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
12 Aug Wed	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.0%	0.2%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.6%	2.5%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	-0.4%	0.1%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	3.5%	3.4%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.3%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	-0.3%	0.2%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	199K	202K	—
14 Aug Fri	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Aug Fri	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.2%	0.1%	—
14 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	54.4	54.7	—
14 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.2%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	304.91	▼ -1.09%	▼ -1.36%	▼ -3.82%
MSFT Microsoft	503.81	▼ -0.44%	▲ +2.23%	▲ +28.85%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	343.80	▼ -3.84%	▼ -8.96%	▼ -2.47%
AMZN Amazon	272.27	▼ -2.09%	▼ -1.86%	▲ +10.09%
NVDA NVIDIA	217.50	▼ -0.02%	▲ +2.62%	▲ +6.86%
META Meta	599.12	▲ +0.71%	▲ +1.90%	▼ -8.77%
TSLA Tesla	332.81	▲ +0.58%	▲ +1.67%	▼ -15.69%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,458.00	▲ +1.71%	▲ +5.00%	▲ +9.77%
XAG Silver	$66.08	▲ +2.03%	▲ +6.42%	▲ +12.44%
HG Copper	$6.66	▲ +0.74%	▼ -0.63%	▲ +5.23%
NG Natural Gas	$2.76	▼ -0.14%	▲ +2.79%	▼ -4.86%
CC Cocoa	$5,543.00	▼ -4.78%	▼ -6.43%	▼ -2.69%
KC Coffee	$335.75	▲ +1.04%	▲ +3.59%	▼ -1.65%
BZ Brent Oil	$89.27	▲ +0.40%	▲ +12.36%	▲ +5.36%

S&P 500 Sectors

Energy

XLE

▲ +1.25%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +1.16%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.60%

Materials

XLB

▲ +0.11%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.02%

Technology

XLK

▼ -0.12%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.26%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.31%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.36%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.50%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.72%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.75T

▲ +0.15% w/w

US M2 MONEY SUPPLY

$23.16T

▲ +0.43% m/m

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$255.1B

▼ -0.05% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.27T

▼ -0.07%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.3%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$52.3B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.76T

Analyst Note: The 0.434-point 2s10s spread and a 0.62% gain in SMH provide some support for growth and risk appetite. However, combined stablecoin market capitalization fell 0.05% over 24 hours and the copper/gold ratio dropped 5.36%, suggesting limited new liquidity and a defensive tilt.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$63,591

▼ -0.30%

Support Level

$63,459

Resistance Level

$64,577

Price at $63,591 is holding above support ($63,459), with resistance at $64,577.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1015%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.083%

24h High

-0.115%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

Crypto futures basis data is unavailable. BTC funding at 0.0025% and ETH funding at 0.0049% are mildly positive, while SOL funding is -0.2494%; rising open interest in BTC by 2.34% and ETH by 3.25% points to greater leverage without a clear directional consensus.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

35.94 ▲ +0.03

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.57

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0025%
ETH	▲ +0.0049%
SOL	▼ -0.2494%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	145.47M ▲ +2.34%
ETH	52.90M ▲ +3.25%
SOL	21.54M ▲ +0.13%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

11 Aug 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+7.8M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+50.2M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-4.1M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: A $50.2M inflow into IBIT, a $4.1M outflow from FBTC, and a total net inflow of $7.8M indicate that institutional demand persists but remains limited. Positive flows signal buying pressure and negative flows signal selling pressure, so ETF data should be read alongside Bitcoin's 0.3% daily decline and the negative Coinbase premium.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

11 Aug 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-1.7M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+0.6M

FETH (Fidelity)

-2.3M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$63,591.00	▲ +0.10%	▼ -0.30%	▼ -0.60%
ETH	$1,884.80	▲ +0.10%	▲ +0.80%	▲ +1.20%
XRP	$1.0180	▲ +0.10%	▲ +0.90%	▼ -4.30%
SOL	$75.9400	● 0.00%	▲ +0.40%	▲ +3.30%
TRX	$0.335766	▲ +0.30%	▲ +1.10%	▲ +2.50%
HYPE	$54.7100	▲ +0.20%	▼ -1.60%	▼ -3.20%
DOGE	$0.071465	● 0.00%	▲ +3.00%	▲ +3.10%
LINK	$8.7100	● 0.00%	▲ +4.10%	▲ +7.10%
TON	$1.3500	● 0.00%	▲ +2.60%	▼ -1.70%
SUI	$0.688267	● 0.00%	▲ +0.60%	▲ +0.20%

Oil, gold prices rise as geopolitical tensions mount before CPI - reuters.com

AI Insight: Gold rising 1.71% and Brent crude gaining 0.40% ahead of geopolitical developments point to safe-haven demand and supply-risk pricing. This defensive commodity move, combined with Fear & Greed at 27 and a Coinbase premium of -0.10%, does not provide a strong risk-on signal for crypto.

Reuters · 01:20

Trump says his plane faced 'greater risk' in secret flight change - reuters.com

AI Insight: Trump's comments on flight security do not introduce a direct market data signal, but they add to the political and geopolitical uncertainty encouraging caution ahead of CPI. Limited ETF inflows and a negative Coinbase premium suggest investors are not responding to that uncertainty with aggressive buying.

Reuters · 00:59

Oil rises as doubts over US-Iran deal heighten supply concerns - reuters.com

AI Insight: Doubts over a US-Iran deal are increasing concerns about oil supply, consistent with Brent's 12.36% seven-day gain. Higher energy prices could keep inflation expectations elevated ahead of CPI and PPI, limiting risk-asset valuations through still-high Treasury yields.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.