NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Fri, Aug 14 2026

NEUTRAL Mixed macro signals, fear-level crypto sentiment and ETF outflows keep the market outlook neutral.

The market outlook remains neutral as signals across asset classes are mixed. The VIX at 14.63 points to subdued volatility, while the US 10-year yield at 4.64% and the 2s10s spread at 44.1 basis points indicate that easing yields are partially reducing rate pressure. The DXY has eased to 99.83, while Brent crude's 5.28% weekly gain keeps Middle East supply risk in focus. Total crypto market capitalization fell 0.95% in 24 hours to $2.25 trillion, with BTC dominance at 56.20% and the Fear & Greed index at 29, firmly in Fear territory. Since actual readings for this week's expected US CPI and PPI data are unavailable, markets are turning to today's retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment releases, while the next FOMC meeting on September 16, 2026 remains the key policy reference.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

How can the real oil flow through Hormuz be verified?

Conflicting US and Iranian claims and capped Hormuz traffic require research into whether headline risk is becoming a physical supply shock. The concrete signals are tanker traffic and Middle East export volumes, cross-checked against EIA data, followed by oil’s reaction to confirmed flows.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Hormuz shipping traffic capped amid competing claims from US and Iran - Reuters — Examine claims about vessels passing through Hormuz, traffic counts, and the stated scope of restrictions.
Reuters — The US says more oil is leaving the Middle East, but is it really? - Reuters — Test whether Middle East oil exports have actually increased by comparing official claims with observable shipment flows.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check crude inventories, imports and exports, refinery utilization, and product supply for physical evidence of disruption.

MACRO

How much could an oil shock disrupt rate-cut expectations?

With supply risk around oil, the 10-year yield is 4.64%, the 2-year yield 4.20%, and the DXY 99.83, while Asian equities reflect fading US rate-hike bets. The research question is whether energy-driven inflation can reverse easing expectations; the key test is the CPI/PPI and retail-sales surprise alongside FedWatch probabilities and the Treasury curve.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Review headline and core CPI releases, focusing on surprises versus expectations and energy’s contribution to inflation.
CME FedWatch Tool — Track how fresh inflation and oil-risk information changes meeting-by-meeting probabilities for hikes or cuts.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Compare 2-year and 10-year yields, the 2s10s curve, and daily repricing of rate expectations.

CRYPTO

Is crypto’s fear being driven by ETF outflows and leverage?

Crypto total market capitalization fell 0.95% in 24 hours, Bitcoin ETFs recorded total outflows of $131.1 million on August 13, and combined stablecoin market capitalization declined 0.04%; meanwhile SOL funding was distinctly positive at 0.1996. The research question is whether defensive sentiment reflects weak spot demand or a derivatives-leverage flush; watch whether ETF flows, stablecoin supply, and funding rates continue moving in the same direction.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Check whether outflows from IBIT, FBTC, and total spot Bitcoin ETFs persist, and whether fund flows diverge.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Examine BTC, ETH, and SOL funding rates, open interest, and liquidation clusters for leverage buildup.
DefiLlama — Stablecoins & TVL — Assess whether USDT and USDC supply and total stablecoin capitalization confirm new liquidity inflows or withdrawals.

NASDAQ 100

30,164

▼ -0.08%

DXY

99.8340

▼ -0.13%

GOLD

$4,390

▲ +0.61%

10Y UST

4.64%

▼ -0.88%

VIX

14.6

▲ +0.55%

BTC

$62,991

▼ -0.40%

BTC.D

56.2%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (33 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
12 Aug Wed	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.0%	0.2%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.6%	2.5%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	-0.4%	0.1%	—
12 Aug Wed	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	3.5%	3.4%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.3%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	-0.3%	0.2%	—
13 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	199K	202K	—
14 Aug Fri	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.2%	0.2%	—
14 Aug Fri	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	0.2%	0.1%	—
14 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	54.4	54.7	—
14 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.2%	—	—

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	305.26	▲ +1.00%	▼ -2.20%	▼ -6.71%
MSFT Microsoft	496.88	▲ +0.90%	▼ -0.60%	▲ +25.59%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	346.36	▲ +0.82%	▼ -3.18%	▼ -6.62%
AMZN Amazon	265.13	▼ -0.80%	▼ -2.62%	▲ +3.99%
NVDA NVIDIA	225.30	▲ +0.54%	▲ +2.88%	▲ +6.02%
META Meta	594.97	▲ +2.78%	▲ +0.86%	▼ -12.67%
TSLA Tesla	339.96	▲ +3.80%	▲ +6.39%	▼ -13.82%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,390.00	▲ +0.61%	▲ +1.14%	▲ +10.15%
XAG Silver	$64.42	▼ -0.70%	▲ +1.72%	▲ +15.25%
HG Copper	$6.59	▼ -0.10%	▲ +0.24%	▲ +4.61%
NG Natural Gas	$2.75	▲ +0.73%	▲ +3.19%	▼ -3.88%
CC Cocoa	$5,648.00	▲ +0.52%	▼ -2.22%	▼ -1.55%
KC Coffee	$333.10	▼ -2.06%	▲ +3.56%	▼ -0.40%
BZ Brent Oil	$87.96	▲ +1.02%	▲ +5.28%	▲ +4.43%

S&P 500 Sectors

Communication

XLC

▲ +2.07%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +1.42%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +1.08%

Technology

XLK

▲ +1.01%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.59%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.48%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.46%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.05%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.04%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.05%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.51%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.76T

▲ +0.17% w/w

US M2 MONEY SUPPLY

$23.16T

▲ +0.43% m/m

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$254.9B

▼ -0.04% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.25T

▼ -0.95%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.2%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$46.1B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.76T

Analyst Note: The 44.1-basis-point 2s10s spread and lower Treasury yields offer some support to financial conditions, while a 0.04% 24-hour decline in combined stablecoin market capitalization points to a slight cooling in liquidity appetite. SMH gained 0.73%, supporting technology risk appetite, but the 0.89% drop in the copper/gold ratio and Fear & Greed at 29 keep the broader picture neutral.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$62,991

▼ -0.40%

Support Level

$62,884

Resistance Level

$64,220

Price at $62,991 is holding above support ($62,884), with resistance at $64,220.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

+0.0500%

▲ US buying pressure active

+0.050%

24h High

-0.120%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

Crypto futures basis data is unavailable. Funding remains modest for BTC at 0.0052% and ETH at 0.0108%, but rises to 0.1996% for SOL, indicating a more pronounced concentration of long positioning in SOL perpetuals.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

34.43 ▼ -1.13

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.56

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0052%
ETH	▲ +0.0108%
SOL	▲ +0.1996%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	149.04M
ETH	53.26M
SOL	21.63M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

13 Aug 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-131.1M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-5.7M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-55.1M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total outflows of $131.1 million, including $5.7 million from IBIT and $55.1 million from FBTC. Positive flows represent buying pressure and negative flows represent selling pressure; the latest outflows are consistent with cautious institutional demand alongside BTC's 0.4% 24-hour decline.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

13 Aug 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+5.9M

ETHA (BlackRock)

-0.6M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.0M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$62,991.00	▲ +0.10%	▼ -0.40%	▼ -1.30%
ETH	$1,872.37	● 0.00%	▼ -0.40%	▼ -0.70%
XRP	$1.0070	▲ +0.10%	● 0.00%	▼ -1.20%
SOL	$75.5200	▲ +0.20%	▼ -0.20%	▲ +4.50%
TRX	$0.333567	● 0.00%	▼ -0.40%	▲ +2.00%
HYPE	$56.5600	▲ +0.10%	▲ +0.10%	▲ +3.00%
DOGE	$0.069659	▲ +0.10%	▼ -0.30%	▲ +1.40%
LINK	$8.7500	● 0.00%	▲ +0.50%	▲ +8.00%
TON	$1.3300	▲ +0.30%	▼ -0.50%	▼ -0.10%
SUI	$0.680366	▲ +0.10%	▼ -0.30%	▲ +1.70%

Hormuz shipping traffic capped amid competing claims from US and Iran - Reuters

AI Insight: Restricted shipping through Hormuz and conflicting US-Iran statements are increasing the supply-risk premium, helping explain Brent's 5.28% weekly gain; the oil shock remains an inflation risk despite lower Treasury yields.

Reuters · 02:40

The US says more oil is leaving the Middle East, but is it really? - Reuters

AI Insight: Questions over the US claim that more oil is leaving the Middle East highlight the importance of physical-flow data over geopolitical messaging. Brent's 1.02% daily rise and the 0.89% decline in the copper/gold ratio suggest that supply uncertainty has not been fully resolved by markets.

Reuters · 02:32

Asian stocks head for strong weekly gains as US rate hike bets fade - Reuters

AI Insight: Weekly gains in Asian equities and fading US rate-hike expectations are supported by the 10-year yield falling to 4.64% and the 2-year yield to 4.20%. However, $131.1 million of total crypto ETF outflows and a Fear & Greed reading of 29 show that risk appetite is not yet broad-based.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.