NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Tue, Aug 18 2026

RISK-OFF Geopolitical risk, weak risk indicators and cautious crypto positioning are reinforcing a risk-off market regime.

Markets are displaying a clear risk-off tone as the US-Iran ceasefire expires and security concerns intensify around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose to $91.25, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.72%, and gold gained 0.76%, highlighting demand for defensive assets. The DXY edged lower to 99.63, but a 2.03% decline in the copper-to-gold ratio signals weaker growth expectations and risk appetite. Total crypto market capitalization reached $2.28 trillion, up 0.53% over 24 hours, yet the Fear & Greed Index remained in Fear at 41; BTC dominance stood at 56.56% and the Coinbase premium was negative at -0.126%, indicating defensive demand. FOMC meeting minutes due on August 19 will be the key catalyst for the rate path and energy-driven inflation risks; no new CPI, PPI, PCE or FOMC rate decision appears on this week’s calendar.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Is the Strait of Hormuz tension turning oil’s geopolitical premium into a lasting supply risk?

A vessel strike in the Strait of Hormuz and the expiry of the ceasefire require testing whether oil’s rise reflects a transient headline shock or a durable risk premium tied to physical supply, insurance, and shipping constraints. The concrete signals to track are EIA inventory and product-supply data, whether oil holds above $91, and whether China’s renewed July stockpiling reinforces the price pressure.

Primary Sources / Reports:

EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, imports/exports, and weekly supply changes for evidence of physical tightening.
Reuters — Vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz, crew casualty reported, UKMTO says - Reuters — Examine UKMTO’s details on the strike, vessel, crew, and navigational safety to determine whether this is an isolated incident or part of a broader transit-risk pattern.
Reuters — China surprises oil markets again with a return to stockpiling in July - Reuters — Investigate whether China’s July return to stockpiling reflects temporary strategic buying or stronger domestic demand and supply-security concerns.

MACRO

Is the oil shock disrupting the Fed’s inflation-growth trade-off again?

Oil above $91, rising Treasury yields, and fading rate-hike bets raise the question of whether markets are pricing a classic inflation shock or instead a growth-risk shock. The key thresholds are how the August 19 FOMC minutes assess energy-driven inflation risk and whether August 20 jobless claims materially deviate from the 210K forecast.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Read the August 19 FOMC minutes for the Committee’s assessment of energy prices’ effects on inflation, employment, and the policy path.
CME FedWatch Tool — Track the decline in rate-hike expectations and how meeting probabilities change after the minutes and jobless-claims release.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Compare movements across maturities to distinguish whether the oil shock is being priced through inflation expectations or through growth and risk aversion.

CRYPTO

Do the negative Coinbase premium and rising open interest signal genuinely weak Bitcoin demand?

Bitcoin’s bearish four-hour structure, a Coinbase premium of -0.1259, and a 6.55% 24-hour increase in open interest require testing whether leveraged positioning is overwhelming spot demand. The concrete levels to monitor are support at $63,379.65, resistance at $64,417.04, whether funding remains negative, and whether ETF flows recover from the $56.2 million total outflow.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Review Bitcoin funding, open-interest changes, liquidations, and futures positioning together to determine the direction behind the rise in open interest.
Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Check whether daily ETF flows turn positive after the $56.2 million total outflow recorded on August 14.
Coinbase Premium / market data — Track whether the Coinbase premium moves from -0.1259 toward zero as evidence of stronger US spot demand, and whether $63,379.65 support holds.

NASDAQ 100

29,880

▼ -0.72%

DXY

99.6340

▼ -0.04%

GOLD

$4,451

▲ +0.76%

10Y UST

N/A

—

VIX

—

BTC

$64,164

▲ +1.10%

BTC.D

56.6%

—

F&G INDEX

Fear

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (29 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons
19 Aug Wed	21:00	FOMC Meeting Minutes	USD	N/A	N/A
20 Aug Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	41.4	24.1
20 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	209K	210K
21 Aug Fri	10:15	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.0	50.1
21 Aug Fri	10:15	French Flash Services PMI	EUR	49.8	49.4
21 Aug Fri	10:30	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	52.2	52.1
21 Aug Fri	10:30	German Flash Services PMI	EUR	49.6	50.1

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	305.93	▲ +0.22%	▼ -2.28%	▼ -8.12%
MSFT Microsoft	495.40	▼ -0.30%	▼ -0.92%	▲ +23.51%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	345.90	▼ -0.13%	▼ -2.37%	▼ -2.41%
AMZN Amazon	262.65	▼ -0.94%	▼ -4.31%	▲ +5.11%
NVDA NVIDIA	225.16	▼ -0.06%	▲ +0.54%	▲ +8.56%
META Meta	589.85	▼ -0.86%	▼ -0.38%	▼ -11.24%
TSLA Tesla	342.27	▲ +0.68%	▲ +4.17%	▼ -12.48%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,451.30	▲ +0.76%	▲ +1.56%	▲ +11.00%
XAG Silver	$65.24	▼ -1.33%	▲ +0.73%	▲ +14.86%
HG Copper	$6.58	▼ -0.38%	▼ -0.50%	▲ +4.45%
BZ Brent Oil	$91.25	▲ +0.42%	▲ +2.63%	▲ +2.28%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

N/A

Financials

XLF

N/A

Health Care

XLV

N/A

Consumer Discret.

XLY

N/A

Communication

XLC

N/A

Industrials

XLI

N/A

Consumer Staples

XLP

N/A

Energy

XLE

N/A

Utilities

XLU

N/A

Real Estate

XLRE

N/A

Materials

XLB

N/A

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.76T

▲ +0.17% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$254.8B

▼ -0.01% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.28T

▲ +0.53%

BTC DOMINANCE

56.6%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$54.2B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.76T

Analyst Note: Valid data for the 2Y-10Y spread, SMH and the relevant Treasury indicators was unavailable, so no conclusion can be drawn from their changes. However, the 0.012% 24-hour decline in total stablecoin market capitalization points to a marginal softening in liquidity appetite, while the negative Coinbase premium signals cautious US spot demand.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$64,164

▲ +1.10%

Support Level

$63,380

Resistance Level

$64,417

Price at $64,164 is holding above support ($63,380), with resistance at $64,417.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1259%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.073%

24h High

-0.126%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC and ETH funding rates were negative at -0.00145% and -0.00317%, respectively, while SOL funding at -0.500% indicates much heavier short positioning. Futures basis data was unavailable, so no definitive premium or discount conclusion can be drawn; negative funding reflects defensive positioning but also raises the risk of a short squeeze.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

34.59 ▲ +0.23

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.56

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▼ -0.0014%
ETH	▼ -0.0032%
SOL	▼ -0.4997%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	156.32M ▲ +6.55%
ETH	50.61M ▼ -0.35%
SOL	20.79M ▼ -2.48%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

14 Aug 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-56.2M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-55.5M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-6.8M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: On August 14, IBIT recorded a $55.5 million outflow and FBTC a $6.8 million outflow, producing a total spot Bitcoin ETF outflow of $56.2 million; this represents selling pressure in the spot channel. On August 17, FBTC posted a $111.9 million inflow and total flows reached $137.3 million, but IBIT recorded no flow, suggesting demand is not yet broad-based or consistent.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

17 Aug 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+5.0M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+0.0M

FETH (Fidelity)

+4.3M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$64,164.00	● 0.00%	▲ +1.10%	▲ +0.30%
ETH	$1,894.00	● 0.00%	▼ -0.40%	▲ +1.00%
XRP	$0.994672	● 0.00%	▼ -0.70%	▼ -1.70%
SOL	$75.6900	▼ -0.10%	▲ +0.30%	▼ -0.40%
TRX	$0.331455	● 0.00%	▼ -0.20%	● 0.00%
HYPE	$59.1300	▼ -0.30%	▲ +0.50%	▲ +6.70%
DOGE	$0.069746	▼ -0.20%	▼ -0.60%	▼ -0.30%
LINK	$9.4300	▲ +0.10%	▼ -0.30%	▲ +12.70%
TON	$1.3100	▼ -0.20%	▼ -1.90%	▼ -1.20%
AVAX	$6.3400	▲ +0.70%	▼ -0.70%	▼ -2.50%

Vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz, crew casualty reported, UKMTO says - Reuters

AI Insight: The reported strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a crew casualty, increases the energy supply risk premium and supports Brent’s rise to $91.25. Together with the 0.72% decline in Nasdaq futures and the negative Coinbase premium, the development reinforces the risk-off backdrop.

Reuters · 02:21

Indian shares open lower as oil tops $91, US-Iran ceasefire expires - Reuters

AI Insight: The decline in Indian equities as oil moved above $91 and the US-Iran ceasefire expired illustrates the pressure higher energy costs place on oil-importing economies. A Fear & Greed reading of 41 and negative BTC funding indicate that crypto investors are not responding to the shock with aggressive risk-taking.

Reuters · 01:51

Dollar feeble as rate hike bets dwindle, Iran war worries grow - Reuters

AI Insight: A decline in rate-hike expectations is weighing on the dollar, but concerns over the Iran conflict continue to sustain safe-haven demand and market volatility. Despite the DXY easing to 99.63, the negative Coinbase premium and the $56.2 million ETF outflow on August 14 show that softer dollar conditions have not translated into a clear crypto risk-on signal.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.