NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Thu, Aug 20 2026

RISK-ON Falling VIX and MOVE, a powerful crypto rally, and ETF inflows show that risk appetite is clearly dominant.

Global risk appetite remains strong as the VIX fell 5.997% to 14.89, MOVE declined 4.961% to 71.26, and the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped 5.3 basis points to 4.653%. The DXY edged up 0.047% to 98.876, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.311%. Total crypto market capitalization rose 4.898% over 24 hours to $2.385 trillion; BTC gained 7.9%, ETH surged 17.7%, and BTC dominance remained at 58.243%. A Fear & Greed reading of 62 in the Greed zone, a 0.268% increase in total stablecoin market capitalization, and $189.3 million of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows all support demand for risk assets. However, the sharp altcoin advance and rising futures open interest increase the risk of short-term leverage-driven volatility. Today’s calendar features the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and US jobless claims at 15:30; the FOMC minutes released during the week remain important for the rate-path outlook.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Can the Iran tension make the oil supply premium persistent?

Trump’s warning to countries supporting Iran, together with investors reassessing the US-Iran war outlook, warrants research into whether oil’s geopolitical risk premium can persist. The key signal is whether EIA supply, inventory and product-demand data continue to strengthen independently of headlines; the energy sector was down 0.16% on the day.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Trump warns of economic consequences for any country that supports Iran - Reuters — Examine the countries targeted by the warning, potential sanctions mechanisms and implications for energy trade.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, imports, exports and demand for evidence that geopolitical risk is entering the physical market.

EQUITIES

How much does the Google-Marvell move threaten Broadcom’s custom-chip economics?

Broadcom’s decline after Google’s Marvell deal, alongside a 1.55% drop in SMH, raises a broader question than one customer headline: customer concentration and supplier power in custom AI chips. The research threshold is to verify customer concentration, contract structure and revenue outlook in Broadcom’s SEC filings, and the deal’s scope in Marvell’s filings.

Primary Sources / Reports:

CNBC — Where we stand on Broadcom after Marvell muscles in on its key customer Google — Examine Broadcom’s Google relationship, the competitive impact of Marvell’s deal and the rationale for the stock reaction.
SEC EDGAR Full-Text Search — Search the latest 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings from Broadcom and Marvell for Google concentration, custom-chip orders, risk factors and material contract disclosures.

CRYPTO

Is the crypto rally real spot demand or leverage-driven?

Total crypto market capitalization rose 4.90% in 24 hours while BTC and ETH open interest increased 4.20% and 6.75%; however, the Coinbase premium remains at -0.052 and BTC’s four-hour trend is bearish. The research question is whether ETF inflows and stablecoin growth are validating the expansion in futures leverage; the key threshold is whether spot ETF flows, stablecoin capitalization and the negative Coinbase premium reverse together as prices rise.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Examine the fund-level breakdown of the $189.3 million total flow on August 18 and whether inflows persist on subsequent days.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Check BTC and ETH open interest, funding rates, liquidations and cross-exchange leverage to assess how much of the move is derivatives-led.
DefiLlama — Stablecoins & TVL — Track changes in USDT and USDC supply, the 24-hour move in total stablecoin capitalization and whether new liquidity is being used on-chain.

NASDAQ 100

29,604

▲ +0.31%

DXY

98.8760

▲ +0.05%

GOLD

$4,538

▲ +1.08%

10Y UST

4.65%

▼ -5.30%

VIX

14.9

▼ -6.00%

BTC

$69,357

▲ +7.90%

BTC.D

58.2%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (27 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
19 Aug Wed	21:00	FOMC Meeting Minutes	USD	N/A	N/A	N/A
20 Aug Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	41.4	24.1
20 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	209K	210K
21 Aug Fri	10:15	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	50.0	50.1
21 Aug Fri	10:15	French Flash Services PMI	EUR	49.8	49.4
21 Aug Fri	10:30	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	EUR	52.2	52.1
21 Aug Fri	10:30	German Flash Services PMI	EUR	49.6	50.1

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	316.83	▲ +2.19%	▲ +4.82%	▼ -3.25%
MSFT Microsoft	484.31	▲ +0.56%	▼ -1.65%	▲ +21.76%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	344.72	▲ +0.15%	▲ +0.34%	▼ -0.70%
AMZN Amazon	265.84	▲ +2.46%	▼ -0.54%	▲ +7.39%
NVDA NVIDIA	217.56	▼ -0.99%	▼ -2.91%	▲ +4.95%
META Meta	546.03	▲ +0.43%	▼ -5.67%	▼ -15.19%
TSLA Tesla	351.12	▲ +4.23%	▲ +7.21%	▼ -7.34%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,537.70	▲ +1.08%	▲ +3.99%	▲ +9.42%
XAG Silver	$66.85	▲ +1.70%	▲ +3.05%	▲ +11.38%
HG Copper	$6.49	▲ +0.01%	▼ -1.59%	▲ +0.57%
BZ Brent Oil	$92.00	▲ +0.41%	▲ +5.66%	▼ -2.20%

S&P 500 Sectors

Health Care

XLV

▲ +3.51%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +1.92%

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.43%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +1.12%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +0.81%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.76%

Utilities

XLU

● 0.00%

Energy

XLE

▼ -0.16%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.62%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.88%

Technology

XLK

▼ -1.07%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.76T

▲ +0.17% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$255.4B

▲ +0.27% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.39T

▲ +4.90%

BTC DOMINANCE

58.2%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$124.5B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.73T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, so the yield-curve risk signal cannot be evaluated. The 0.268% rise in total stablecoin market capitalization provides liquidity support, while SMH’s 1.553% decline signals a cautious divergence in semiconductors.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$69,357

▲ +7.90%

Support Level

$65,968

Resistance Level

$69,700

Price at $69,357 is holding above support ($65,968), with resistance at $69,700.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0522%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.013%

24h High

-0.095%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC funding is 0.00959% and ETH funding is 0.00758%, while 24-hour open interest gains point to positive leveraged demand accompanying the rally. Futures basis data is unavailable, so the level of the premium cannot be assessed definitively; the current structure should be monitored for overheating.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

36.83 ▲ +2.18

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.57

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0096%
ETH	▲ +0.0076%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	166.19M ▲ +4.20%
ETH	56.10M ▲ +6.75%
SOL	22.00M ▲ +8.26%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

18 Aug 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+189.3M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+143.6M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+23.9M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: The $189.3 million total inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, including $143.6 million for IBIT and $23.9 million for FBTC, represents direct buying pressure. Positive flows signal institutional demand, while negative flows indicate selling pressure; therefore, the durability of the price rally depends partly on continued inflows.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

19 Aug 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+17.7M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+0.0M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.0M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$69,357.00	▼ -0.10%	▲ +7.90%	▲ +9.00%
ETH	$2,246.96	▼ -0.20%	▲ +17.70%	▲ +18.80%
XRP	$1.1000	▲ +0.40%	▲ +10.40%	▲ +9.40%
SOL	$84.8900	▲ +0.10%	▲ +10.40%	▲ +11.60%
TRX	$0.332933	▲ +0.20%	● 0.00%	▼ -0.80%
HYPE	$71.0700	▲ +0.50%	▲ +21.30%	▲ +25.00%
DOGE	$0.074644	▼ -0.20%	▲ +6.70%	▲ +6.40%
LINK	$10.4500	● 0.00%	▲ +8.90%	▲ +19.50%
TON	$1.3500	▼ -0.30%	▲ +2.40%	▲ +0.90%
AVAX	$6.7500	▼ -0.20%	▲ +6.30%	▲ +3.90%

Trump warns of economic consequences for any country that supports Iran - Reuters

AI Insight: Trump’s warning that countries supporting Iran could face economic consequences may raise the geopolitical risk premium, but the VIX at 14.89 and strong gains across risk assets show that markets are pricing the headline only modestly for now. Brent crude’s 0.415% rise to around $92 keeps the energy-cost channel on watch.

Reuters · 01:11

Oil prices steady as investors assess US-Iran war outlook - Reuters

AI Insight: As uncertainty over the US-Iran war outlook persists, Brent holding near $92 suggests that supply concerns have not yet triggered a new shock. Lower volatility, falling Treasury yields, and ETF inflows support risk appetite, but a sustained oil rally could challenge this backdrop through inflation and Fed-expectation channels.

Reuters · 21:50

US provides $206 million for Gaza force despite deadlocked peace plan - Reuters

AI Insight: The US funding $206 million for a Gaza force despite a deadlocked peace plan highlights persistent regional geopolitical uncertainty. Gold’s 1.076% rise reflects safe-haven demand, while the low VIX and crypto ETF inflows show that markets are still maintaining a broader risk-on stance.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.