NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Mon, Aug 24 2026

NEUTRAL Strong crypto gains and ETF inflows provide support, but gold demand, a weak dollar and macro uncertainty keep signals balanced, leaving the market regime neutral.

The market outlook remains neutral as cross-asset signals are mixed. BTC is at $77,083, up 1.43% over 24 hours and 21.6% over seven days, while ETH gained 3.06% and total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.61 trillion; however, aggregate capitalization fell 0.99% over 24 hours. The Fear & Greed index is at 73, classified as Greed, with BTC dominance at 59.20% and stablecoin dominance at 9.82%. The DXY is near multi-month lows at 98.84 despite a 0.04% daily rise, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.59% and SMH declined 0.40%. Gold rose 1.55% to $4,696, and the 6.48% drop in the copper-gold ratio, together with the upcoming US core PCE release, signals that risk appetite is not uniformly bullish. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.2% month over month on August 26, while positioning ahead of the September 16 FOMC meeting is likely to keep markets cautious.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

MACRO

Inflation and Fed communication: can gold’s rally last?

Gold’s move to a more-than-three-month high, the dollar’s proximity to multi-month lows and the 26 August core PCE release should be analyzed together. The research question is how a core PCE outcome above the 0.2% forecast, or a more hawkish Fed message, would transmit through real yields and the dollar; the key signals are the PCE surprise, Fed pricing and the direction of the dollar.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Check the inflation trend and momentum in services, shelter and goods prices.
BEA — PCE Price Index — Compare the 26 August core PCE monthly release with the 0.2% forecast.
CME FedWatch Tool — Track changes in rate-cut probabilities and futures pricing after the PCE release and the Fed chair’s speech.

COMMODITIES

Iran sanctions and war risk: the vulnerability linking oil supply to Indian equities

Cautious Indian equities amid Iran-sanctions concerns and the blending of economic, trade and military conflicts warrant an investigation into whether energy-supply risk is being repriced. The research question is how broader sanctions or geopolitical escalation would affect oil supply, energy costs and India’s risk premium; the concrete threshold is a directional shift in weekly petroleum inventories and supply flows.

Primary Sources / Reports:

EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Review changes in U.S. crude and product inventories, production, imports, exports and refinery utilization.
Reuters — Indian shares extend cautious trade on concerns over Iran sanctions - Reuters — Read the direct impact of the sanctions story on Indian equities, sectors and investor risk perception.
Reuters — Mixing economic wars, trade wars and actual wars - Reuters — Assess how geopolitical and trade tensions together may affect supply chains and pricing behavior.

CRYPTO

The crypto divergence: strong ETF inflows versus a weak Coinbase premium

Strong Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF inflows coexist with a one-day decline in total crypto market capitalization, a negative Coinbase premium and elevated greed. The research question is whether the rally is being driven by institutional spot demand or derivatives leverage; the key signals are a return of the Coinbase premium to positive territory, persistent fund inflows and a break of Bitcoin’s 70,209.59 support or 78,312.09 resistance.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Check whether IBIT, FBTC and total Bitcoin ETF inflows persist or reverse day to day.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Track whether the strong 21 August inflows into ETHA and other Ethereum ETFs continue.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Measure leverage intensity through BTC and ETH funding rates, open interest and liquidations.

NASDAQ 100

29,215

▼ -0.59%

DXY

98.8420

▲ +0.04%

GOLD

$4,696

▲ +1.55%

10Y UST

N/A

—

VIX

—

BTC

$77,083

▲ +1.43%

BTC.D

59.2%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (23 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons
25 Aug Tue	17:00	CB Consumer Confidence	USD	90.8	90.3
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Core PCE Price Index MoM	USD	0.1%	0.2%
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Prelim GDP QoQ	USD	1.5%	1.5%
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Prelim GDP Price Index QoQ	USD	6.2%	6.2%
27 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	208K
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision	USD	-911K	N/A
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	51.0	51.0
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.3%	N/A

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	309.35	▼ -0.63%	▲ +1.12%	▼ -3.74%
MSFT Microsoft	483.24	▲ +0.43%	▼ -2.27%	▲ +26.88%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	344.82	▲ +1.22%	▼ -0.31%	▲ +8.54%
AMZN Amazon	258.63	▼ -0.57%	▼ -1.53%	▲ +10.69%
NVDA NVIDIA	214.72	▼ -0.98%	▼ -4.64%	▲ +2.85%
META Meta	549.90	▲ +0.75%	▼ -6.77%	▼ -9.27%
TSLA Tesla	362.86	▲ +5.14%	▲ +6.02%	▲ +13.50%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,696.00	▲ +1.55%	▲ +6.30%	▲ +15.45%
XAG Silver	$68.82	▼ -0.92%	▲ +4.09%	▲ +17.34%
HG Copper	$6.57	▼ -0.22%	▼ -0.59%	▲ +3.88%
BZ Brent Oil	$93.18	▼ -1.28%	▲ +2.54%	▼ -3.72%

S&P 500 Sectors

Materials

XLB

▲ +2.14%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +1.29%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +1.15%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.93%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +0.79%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.65%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.27%

Technology

XLK

▲ +0.11%

Real Estate

XLRE

● 0.00%

Energy

XLE

▼ -0.17%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -2.28%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.75T

▼ -0.21% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$256.7B

▼ -0.02% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.61T

▼ -0.99%

BTC DOMINANCE

59.2%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$87.6B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.77T

Analyst Note: Combined stablecoin market capitalization is $256.71 billion, down 0.018% over 24 hours, pointing to a marginal cooling in liquidity conditions. The 0.40% decline in SMH and the 6.48% fall in the copper-gold ratio cap risk appetite, while the unavailable 2Y-10Y spread prevents an additional yield-curve signal.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$77,083

▲ +1.43%

Support Level

$70,210

Resistance Level

$78,312

Price at $77,083 is holding above support ($70,210), with resistance at $78,312.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0303%

▼ US selling pressure

+0.013%

24h High

-0.031%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC and ETH funding rates are positive at 0.00436% and 0.00777%, respectively, indicating demand for longs while also raising the risk of a leverage-driven pullback. Futures basis data is unavailable, so no firm conclusion can be drawn about the term premium.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

42.80 ▲ +0.33

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.60

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0044%
ETH	▲ +0.0078%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	154.93M
ETH	67.23M
SOL	31.56M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

21 Aug 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+307.5M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+239.3M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+30.2M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total inflows of $307.5 million on August 21, led by IBIT at $239.3 million and FBTC at $30.2 million. Positive flows indicate spot buying pressure and negative flows indicate selling pressure; the recent inflow streak supports the rally, although a Coinbase premium of -0.0303% suggests US spot demand is not uniformly strong.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

21 Aug 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+184.0M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+150.8M

FETH (Fidelity)

+9.6M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$77,083.00	▲ +0.40%	▲ +1.43%	▲ +21.60%
ETH	$2,445.23	▲ +0.50%	▲ +3.06%	▲ +28.80%
XRP	$1.4700	▲ +0.30%	▲ +2.03%	▲ +47.50%
SOL	$93.9100	▲ +0.20%	▲ +1.97%	▲ +24.90%
TRX	$0.344397	▲ +0.20%	▲ +0.67%	▲ +3.70%
HYPE	$79.2000	▼ -0.20%	▲ +2.14%	▲ +35.40%
DOGE	$0.091462	● 0.00%	▲ +2.55%	▲ +31.00%
LINK	$11.4700	▲ +0.40%	▲ +3.22%	▲ +21.70%
TON	$1.4700	▲ +0.30%	▲ +2.61%	▲ +10.20%
SUI	$0.820411	▲ +0.10%	▲ +4.81%	▲ +22.00%

Gold hits over 3-month high ahead of US inflation data, Fed chair speech - Reuters

AI Insight: Gold's 1.55% rise to $4,696, a more-than-three-month high, shows safe-haven demand strengthening ahead of US inflation data and the Fed chair's speech. This defensive macro positioning means the crypto rally could remain vulnerable despite strong ETF inflows and positive funding rates.

Reuters · 04:34

Mixing economic wars, trade wars and actual wars - Reuters

AI Insight: The simultaneous focus on economic, trade and geopolitical conflicts raises the risk premium across markets. Gold's performance and the 6.48% decline in the copper-gold ratio reinforce the defensive tone, while the negative Coinbase premium indicates that US spot demand has not yet confirmed the move.

Reuters · 04:00

Father of sailor aboard USS Abraham Lincoln taken into US immigration detention - Reuters

AI Insight: This item is a broad market commentary and therefore does not warrant a separate market insight.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.