NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Tue, Aug 25 2026

NEUTRAL Strong crypto performance and ETF inflows are offset by higher volatility, weaker technology signals and geopolitical risks, keeping markets in a neutral balance.

Market conditions remain neutral as risk appetite and cautionary signals offset one another. Bitcoin rose 4.65% over 24 hours to $80,695, while total crypto market capitalization reached $2.73 trillion with a 1.74% daily increase; the Fear & Greed Index stood at 74 in Greed territory and BTC dominance at 59.30%. At the same time, the VIX rose 4.76% to 15.85, MOVE stood at 73.98 and SMH fell 2.43%, pointing to more cautious positioning in technology equities. The US 10-year yield eased to 4.704%, while the DXY edged up to 99.08 and the copper-gold ratio dropped 5.50%, signaling softer growth sensitivity. Brent crude slipped 0.65% to $91.57, but Iran sanctions and retaliation threats keep the energy-supply risk premium active. Markets will also focus on the core PCE release due August 26, expected at 0.2% month over month, alongside preliminary GDP growth expected at 1.5%, ahead of the Fed meeting on September 16.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Are Iran sanctions becoming a physical oil-supply shock?

The Iran war and wider US sanctions raise the risk that geopolitical tension is repriced as a genuine supply-security problem, especially against Reuters’ warning that a large share of global oil flows from war zones. The research question is whether sanctions are actually disrupting physical exports and shipping; the key signal is a sustained oil-price response confirmed by EIA inventories, production and trade-flow data.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Six months into Iran war, almost half of global oil flows from war zones - Reuters — The share of global oil flows exposed to war zones and the resulting vulnerability of supply routes.
Reuters — Oil steadies as investors weigh impact of latest US sanctions on Iran — The scope and enforcement of the latest sanctions, the market’s assumed supply disruption and whether the oil reaction persists.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Weekly US crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, imports and exports to verify a physical tightening.

MACRO

Is the oil shock rebuilding the growth-inflation dilemma?

Iran sanctions and retaliation threats can lift inflation through oil while weakening growth; meanwhile, the US 10-year yield is 4.704%, DXY is 99.083 and VIX is 15.85. The research question is whether markets treat the shock as a temporary risk premium or persistent inflation pressure; the key threshold is whether the 26 August Core PCE result deviates from the 0.2% forecast and jointly shifts yields, the dollar and Fed pricing.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Dollar struggles for traction as markets weigh Iran sanctions, Treasury buybacks - Reuters — How Iran sanctions affect the dollar and how Treasury buybacks may influence liquidity and FX pricing.
BEA — PCE Price Index — The 26 August Core PCE release, the deviation from the 0.2% monthly forecast and the services/goods composition.
Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — How the Fed frames an oil-driven inflation shock and the policy signals ahead of the 16 September meeting.

CRYPTO

Is the crypto rally real demand or leveraged risk appetite?

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $337.6 million and $115.6 million respectively on 24 August, while total crypto market capitalization rose 1.74% in 24 hours; however, the Coinbase premium fell to -0.131, with ETH open interest up 5.59% and SOL open interest up 21.34%. The research question is whether ETF demand is lifting spot markets or being amplified by futures leverage; key signals are a move in the Coinbase premium from negative to positive, persistent fund inflows and open-interest growth without forced liquidations.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — The fund-level breakdown of the $337.6 million Bitcoin ETF inflow on 24 August and whether inflows persist.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — The fund-level breakdown of the $115.6 million Ethereum ETF inflow on 24 August and confirmation of spot demand.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — BTC, ETH and SOL open interest, funding rates and liquidations to assess whether the 5.59% ETH and 21.34% SOL open-interest increases are leverage-driven.

NASDAQ 100

29,226

▲ +0.41%

DXY

99.0830

▲ +0.08%

GOLD

$4,695

▲ +1.17%

10Y UST

4.70%

▼ -3.40%

VIX

15.9

▲ +4.76%

BTC

$80,695

▲ +4.65%

BTC.D

59.3%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (22 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons
25 Aug Tue	17:00	CB Consumer Confidence	USD	90.8	90.3
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Core PCE Price Index MoM	USD	0.1%	0.2%
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Prelim GDP QoQ	USD	1.5%	1.5%
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Prelim GDP Price Index QoQ	USD	6.2%	6.2%
27 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	208K
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision	USD	-911K	N/A
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	51.0	51.0
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.3%	N/A

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	310.34	▲ +0.32%	▲ +1.55%	▼ -6.73%
MSFT Microsoft	487.31	▲ +0.84%	▲ +1.64%	▲ +27.91%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	348.06	▲ +0.94%	▲ +1.18%	▲ +8.86%
AMZN Amazon	262.07	▲ +1.33%	▲ +0.29%	▲ +12.91%
NVDA NVIDIA	208.48	▼ -2.91%	▼ -7.35%	▲ +0.79%
META Meta	559.02	▲ +1.66%	▼ -1.75%	▼ -6.08%
TSLA Tesla	348.95	▼ -3.83%	▲ +2.84%	▲ +11.47%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,695.30	▲ +1.17%	▲ +7.54%	▲ +15.24%
XAG Silver	$67.93	▼ -0.90%	▲ +6.23%	▲ +16.17%
HG Copper	$6.59	▼ -0.17%	▲ +1.63%	▲ +3.93%
BZ Brent Oil	$91.57	▼ -0.65%	▲ +0.60%	▲ +3.63%

S&P 500 Sectors

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +1.70%

Financials

XLF

▲ +1.29%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +1.05%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.83%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +0.55%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.24%

Materials

XLB

▲ +0.07%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.05%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.69%

Energy

XLE

▼ -0.83%

Technology

XLK

▼ -1.78%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.75T

▼ -0.21% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$256.8B

▲ +0.04% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.73T

▲ +1.74%

BTC DOMINANCE

59.3%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$133.4B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.81T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, so no yield-curve assessment can be made. Total stablecoin market capitalization rose 0.044% over 24 hours to $256.82 billion, while SMH fell 2.43%, indicating that crypto liquidity remains stable even as equity risk appetite weakens in semiconductors.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$80,695

▲ +4.65%

Support Level

$72,406

Resistance Level

$81,028

Price at $80,695 is holding above support ($72,406), with resistance at $81,028.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1308%

▼ US selling pressure

+0.004%

24h High

-0.131%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC funding was 0.0133% and ETH funding 0.0366%, while open interest increased 1.72% for BTC, 5.59% for ETH and 21.34% for SOL. Rising leverage can reinforce the advance, but positive funding also increases the risk of long liquidations during a pullback; basis data is unavailable.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

44.64 ▲ +1.03

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.60

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0133%
ETH	▲ +0.0366%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	157.60M ▲ +1.72%
ETH	70.99M ▲ +5.59%
SOL	38.30M ▲ +21.34%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

24 Aug 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+337.6M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+208.9M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+104.6M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total inflows of $337.6 million on August 24, including $208.9 million for IBIT and $104.6 million for FBTC. Positive flows indicate buying pressure, but the -0.131% Coinbase premium suggests US spot demand is less robust than ETF flows alone imply, so the inflows should not be treated as an unlimited upside signal.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

24 Aug 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+115.6M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+90.9M

FETH (Fidelity)

+6.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$80,695.00	▲ +0.60%	▲ +4.65%	▲ +25.90%
ETH	$2,508.43	▲ +0.70%	▲ +2.51%	▲ +32.40%
XRP	$1.5200	▲ +0.70%	▲ +3.08%	▲ +53.10%
SOL	$101.89	▲ +0.90%	▲ +8.25%	▲ +34.60%
TRX	$0.344619	▲ +0.10%	▲ +0.02%	▲ +3.90%
HYPE	$80.7300	▼ -0.20%	▲ +1.72%	▲ +36.20%
DOGE	$0.092747	▲ +1.00%	▲ +1.12%	▲ +32.80%
LINK	$11.8100	▲ +0.60%	▲ +2.85%	▲ +25.40%
TON	$1.4800	▼ -0.10%	▲ +0.36%	▲ +12.70%
SUI	$0.827627	▲ +1.20%	▲ +0.56%	▲ +28.20%

Six months into Iran war, almost half of global oil flows from war zones - Reuters

AI Insight: The high share of global oil flows passing through war zones keeps a structural geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets. Brent's decline to $91.57 alongside a VIX reading of 15.85 suggests markets have not shifted into full risk-off mode, but sensitivity to headlines is increasing.

Reuters · 04:22

Oil steadies as investors weigh impact of latest US sanctions on Iran - Reuters

AI Insight: New US sanctions on Iran create potential supply-side support for oil, yet Brent's 0.65% daily decline shows investors are still assessing the sanctions' practical impact on flows. The DXY's limited rise to 99.08 and the 10-year yield's decline to 4.704% indicate that inflation and growth effects are being priced simultaneously.

Reuters · 01:31

Dollar struggles for traction as markets weigh Iran sanctions, Treasury buybacks - Reuters

AI Insight: The dollar's inability to gain momentum shows that sanctions and Treasury buyback expectations have not been sufficient to generate sustained safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the -0.131% Coinbase premium points to cautious US spot demand, while strong ETF inflows suggest institutional support is arriving mainly through the ETF channel.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.