NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Wed, Aug 26 2026

RISK-ON Falling VIX and MOVE, strong ETF inflows, and Greed-level sentiment indicate that risk appetite remains intact.

Global risk appetite remains supported as VIX fell to 15.45 and the MOVE index declined to 71.92; the US 10-year yield also eased to 4.639%, down 6.5 bp on the day. The DXY was marginally higher at 98.975, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.16%; SMH, however, gained 1.65%, reinforcing the technology-led tone. Total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.675 trillion but fell 4.45% over 24 hours; BTC traded at $79,036, down 2.07% daily despite a 23% seven-day gain, with BTC dominance at 59.28% and Fear & Greed at 65, or Greed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $314.3 million on August 25, while Ethereum ETFs received $179.8 million, confirming meaningful medium-term institutional demand. Today’s calendar highlights core PCE, forecast at 0.2% month over month, and preliminary GDP, forecast at 1.5%; until these figures are released, rate expectations and risk assets remain highly data-sensitive.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Can a Hormuz corridor permanently deflate oil’s risk premium?

Iran-Oman talks and the prospect of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor have driven oil lower, but durability depends on whether rhetoric becomes actual tanker traffic. Track EIA inventory and shipping indicators alongside the market’s response to three scenarios: corridor opening, renewed closure, or prolonged delay; the key question is whether energy equities and inflation expectations continue to diverge.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Oil prices fall $2 on Iran-Oman talks to reopen Strait of Hormuz - Reuters — Read the reported oil-price reaction, the terms of the Hormuz discussions, and the operational details behind the proposed corridor.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, imports, exports, and shipping-related physical indicators for evidence that Hormuz risk is easing.
Reuters — Iran and Oman discuss temporary Hormuz corridor as impasse with US drags on - Reuters — Examine the corridor’s scope and durability, and whether the US-Iran impasse could still constrain actual passage.

MACRO

Can core PCE and growth reset the Fed path simultaneously?

Today’s core PCE and preliminary GDP releases could reshape pricing ahead of the FOMC in 21 days, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.639%. The research question is how a core PCE move from the prior 0.1% toward the 0.2% forecast, combined with the growth print, reprices the Treasury curve and the Fed’s 2026 median dot of 3.8.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BEA — PCE Price Index — Review the released core PCE monthly change, revisions to the prior period, and the underlying services and goods components.
Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Track the next FOMC date, the latest statement, and any changes in the Fed’s inflation and growth assessment.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Measure how the 10-year yield moves away from 4.639% and how the maturity structure changes after PCE and GDP.

CRYPTO

Are ETF inflows real demand—or leverage fragility in disguise?

Bitcoin ETFs took in $314.3 million and Ethereum ETFs $179.8 million on August 25, yet total crypto market capitalization fell 4.45% in 24 hours. That divergence raises the research question of whether spot demand is failing to absorb derivatives deleveraging; monitor ETF persistence around BTC’s 71,680.5 support and 80,189.31 resistance, alongside the negative Coinbase premium, ETH funding, and open-interest changes.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Break down the $314.3 million August 25 inflow by fund, check whether it persists, and review IBIT and FBTC flows.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Examine the $179.8 million August 25 inflow, the ETHA and FETH contributions, and whether flows persist despite price weakness.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Compare the 12.02% BTC open-interest decline, 6.07% ETH increase, funding rates, and liquidation clusters with ETF flows.

NASDAQ 100

29,230

▼ -0.16%

DXY

98.9750

▲ +0.06%

GOLD

$4,696

▲ +1.24%

10Y UST

4.64%

▼ -6.50%

VIX

15.4

▼ -2.52%

BTC

$79,036

▼ -2.07%

BTC.D

59.3%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (21 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
25 Aug Tue	17:00	CB Consumer Confidence	USD	90.8	90.3	N/A
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Core PCE Price Index MoM	USD	0.1%	0.2%
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Prelim GDP QoQ	USD	1.5%	1.5%
26 Aug Wed	15:30	Prelim GDP Price Index QoQ	USD	6.2%	6.2%
27 Aug Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	208K
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision	USD	-911K	N/A
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	51.0	51.0
28 Aug Fri	17:00	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.3%	N/A

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	309.90	▼ -0.14%	▼ -0.04%	▼ -7.94%
MSFT Microsoft	491.71	▲ +0.90%	▲ +2.29%	▲ +26.61%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	346.96	▼ -0.32%	▲ +0.80%	▲ +6.25%
AMZN Amazon	261.06	▼ -0.39%	▲ +0.62%	▲ +12.82%
NVDA NVIDIA	213.05	▲ +2.19%	▼ -3.04%	▲ +8.42%
META Meta	570.05	▲ +1.97%	▲ +4.85%	▼ -4.01%
TSLA Tesla	350.25	▲ +0.37%	▲ +3.97%	▲ +13.27%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,695.60	▲ +1.24%	▲ +4.59%	▲ +16.33%
XAG Silver	$69.14	▲ +0.74%	▲ +5.19%	▲ +20.68%
HG Copper	$6.76	▲ +0.77%	▲ +4.22%	▲ +6.94%
BZ Brent Oil	$85.82	▼ -3.12%	▼ -6.33%	▲ +2.06%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

▲ +0.94%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.77%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.34%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.21%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.15%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +0.07%

Materials

XLB

● 0.00%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.30%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.34%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -1.06%

Energy

XLE

▼ -1.66%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.75T

▼ -0.21% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$256.9B

▲ +0.03% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.67T

▼ -4.45%

BTC DOMINANCE

59.3%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$89.9B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.79T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread was unavailable, so the yield curve cannot provide a risk signal through that channel. Stablecoin market capitalization rose 0.03% over 24 hours to $256.9 billion, while SMH gained 1.65%, producing a cautiously constructive liquidity and growth-equity signal.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$79,036

▼ -2.07%

Support Level

$71,680

Resistance Level

$80,189

Price at $79,036 is holding above support ($71,680), with resistance at $80,189.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0213%

▼ US selling pressure

+0.006%

24h High

-0.053%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC funding was positive at 0.1745%, while ETH funding reached a notably high 1.5009%; this signals demand for longs but also raises the risk of crowded positioning and a sharper ETH pullback. Futures basis data was unavailable, so no annualized premium assessment can be made.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

42.76 ▼ -1.22

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.59

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0017%
ETH	▲ +0.0150%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	138.65M ▼ -12.02%
ETH	75.30M ▲ +6.07%
SOL	29.23M ▼ -23.67%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

25 Aug 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+314.3M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+284.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+15.4M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: IBIT received $284.4 million and FBTC $15.4 million, making IBIT the primary contributor to the total $314.3 million spot Bitcoin ETF inflow; positive flows are generally read as buying pressure. The simultaneous decline in spot BTC suggests ETF demand has not fully offset short-term deleveraging.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

25 Aug 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+179.8M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+146.4M

FETH (Fidelity)

+25.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$79,036.00	▲ +0.30%	▼ -2.07%	▲ +23.00%
ETH	$2,463.27	▲ +0.20%	▼ -1.77%	▲ +29.00%
XRP	$1.4400	▲ +0.40%	▼ -4.98%	▲ +44.30%
SOL	$97.0400	▲ +0.40%	▼ -4.61%	▲ +26.30%
TRX	$0.338752	▲ +0.30%	▼ -1.69%	▲ +1.80%
HYPE	$82.4300	▲ +0.40%	▲ +2.22%	▲ +40.80%
DOGE	$0.086778	▲ +0.40%	▼ -6.34%	▲ +24.10%
LINK	$11.3900	● 0.00%	▼ -3.55%	▲ +18.80%
TON	$1.4400	▲ +0.20%	▼ -2.82%	▲ +8.90%
AVAX	$7.3700	▲ +0.40%	▼ -3.82%	▲ +16.20%

Bessent's D-Day sanctions are more Anzio, but Iran response is key - Reuters

AI Insight: The possibility that Bessent’s sanctions framework will be less forceful than initially implied, together with the importance of Iran’s response, leaves the geopolitical risk premium highly sensitive to policy headlines. The VIX at 15.45 supports risk appetite, but the negative Coinbase premium and BTC’s daily decline show that investors still want stronger confirmation from US spot demand.

Reuters · 23:24

Trump sends Saudi nuclear deal to Congress but says Riyadh must recognize Israel - Reuters

AI Insight: Sending the Saudi nuclear deal to Congress, alongside the condition that Riyadh recognize Israel, creates a new negotiating framework for Middle East diplomacy. Progress could reduce energy-supply and geopolitical risk premia; strong ETF inflows and subdued VIX currently provide a supportive backdrop for that scenario.

Reuters · 23:03

Oil prices fall $2 on Iran-Oman talks to reopen Strait of Hormuz - Reuters

AI Insight: Talks between Iran and Oman aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent down 3.12%, strengthening expectations of a reduced supply shock. The 1.66% decline in the energy sector reflects that relief, while lower oil prices could support yields and risk assets if they ease inflation pressure.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.