NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Thu, Sep 3 2026

RISK-ON A softer DXY, a stronger copper-to-gold ratio, gains in semiconductors and Greed-level sentiment are supporting risk appetite.

The global backdrop remains RISK_ON despite geopolitical risks and elevated rate volatility. The DXY slipped to 99.22, while the VIX remained subdued at 15.32; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was steady at 4.796%. A 3.48% rise in the copper-to-gold ratio and a 0.96% gain in SMH point to continued demand for growth and technology exposure. BTC traded at $77,598, up 1.29% over 24 hours, while total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.61 trillion; however, total capitalization fell 2.44% over 24 hours and BTC was down 2.60% over seven days, highlighting near-term volatility. The Fear & Greed Index at 65 remains in Greed, although BTC dominance at 59.56% suggests risk-taking is still selective. Today’s focus is on U.S. ISM Services PMI and jobless claims, followed tomorrow by payrolls, hourly earnings and the unemployment rate, all of which could shift rate expectations ahead of the Fed’s September 16 FOMC meeting.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Is the Iran risk premium making oil prices structurally higher?

Escalation reports around the U.S.-Iran conflict keep supply and shipping risks in focus even as oil retreats from recent highs. The research question is whether prices reflect a durable geopolitical premium or demand uncertainty; the key signal is how oil responds alongside EIA weekly inventories, production, and export data.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Oil falls from recent highs as investors weigh uncertainty over US-Iran strikes - Reuters — Examine the article’s account of how uncertainty over U.S.-Iran strikes is affecting oil pricing and perceived supply risks.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check weekly crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, production, and import-export data for evidence of supply stress.

MACRO

The Fed’s September test: weak payrolls versus elevated Treasury yields

The September 4 employment report could reprice the growth-inflation balance ahead of the September 16 Fed meeting, following a prior -23K payroll change and a 4.1% unemployment rate; market data show the 10-year yield at 4.796% and MOVE at 79.71. The research question is whether a rise in wage growth to the 0.3% forecast would offset weak payrolls in rate-cut pricing; the threshold is a payroll result away from the 55K forecast or unemployment outside 4.1%.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Employment Situation (NFP) — Review the September 4 payrolls, unemployment rate, and hourly earnings against forecasts.
Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Follow the September 16 FOMC statement, its policy language, and the emphasis placed on employment and inflation risks.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Compare Treasury yields before and after the employment release, focusing on repricing in the 10-year rate and the curve.

CRYPTO

Can Bitcoin ETF support overcome weak Coinbase premium and deleveraging?

Bitcoin ETFs recorded total inflows of $101.1 million on September 2 while Ethereum ETFs saw $48.2 million of outflows; meanwhile, the Coinbase premium was -0.0556, Bitcoin open interest fell 1.95% over 24 hours, and total crypto market cap declined 2.44%. The research question is whether institutional spot demand can offset derivatives deleveraging and weak U.S. spot demand; the key levels to monitor are Bitcoin support at 76,957.745 and resistance at 79,565.18.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Check how the $101.1 million September 2 inflow was distributed across funds and whether subsequent daily flows persist.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Track Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest, funding rates, liquidations, and the relationship between deleveraging and price action.
Coinbase Premium — Monitor whether the Coinbase premium recovers from -0.0556 toward zero, confirming U.S.-based spot demand alongside ETF inflows.

NASDAQ 100

29,153

▼ -0.11%

DXY

99.2160

▼ -0.35%

GOLD

$4,474

▲ +2.46%

10Y UST

4.80%

● 0.00%

VIX

15.3

▲ +0.79%

BTC

$77,598

▲ +1.29%

BTC.D

59.6%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (13 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
31 Aug Mon	09:29	German Prelim CPI MoM	EUR	0.8%	0.3%	N/A
01 Sep Tue	12:00	Core CPI Flash Estimate YoY	EUR	2.5%	2.5%	N/A
01 Sep Tue	12:00	CPI Flash Estimate YoY	EUR	2.9%	3.3%	N/A
01 Sep Tue	17:00	ISM Manufacturing PMI	USD	55.6	55.2	N/A
01 Sep Tue	17:00	JOLTS Job Openings	USD	7.36M	7.33M	N/A
02 Sep Wed	15:15	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	44K	47K	N/A
03 Sep Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	203K	205K
03 Sep Thu	17:00	ISM Services PMI	USD	54.1	54.2
04 Sep Fri	15:30	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	USD	0.1%	0.3%
04 Sep Fri	15:30	Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	-23K	55K
04 Sep Fri	15:30	Unemployment Rate	USD	4.1%	4.1%

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	324.96	▼ -0.05%	▲ +3.67%	▲ +5.13%
MSFT Microsoft	496.82	▼ -0.84%	▲ +0.09%	▲ +1.00%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	337.12	▲ +0.63%	▼ -1.43%	▼ -10.73%
AMZN Amazon	254.98	▲ +0.02%	▼ -2.04%	▼ -8.09%
NVDA NVIDIA	224.41	▲ +3.21%	▲ +7.04%	▲ +5.88%
META Meta	592.85	▲ +2.47%	▲ +2.90%	▲ +0.84%
TSLA Tesla	357.01	▲ +0.26%	▲ +3.24%	▲ +9.06%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,473.60	▲ +2.46%	▼ -2.95%	▲ +5.37%
XAG Silver	$66.26	▲ +2.37%	▼ -4.56%	▲ +6.70%
HG Copper	$6.61	▲ +1.75%	▲ +0.43%	▼ -1.31%
BZ Brent Oil	$96.45	▲ +0.86%	▲ +7.53%	▲ +21.40%

S&P 500 Sectors

Materials

XLB

▲ +1.69%

Communication

XLC

▲ +1.39%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.80%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.75%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.51%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +0.33%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.26%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.24%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.03%

Technology

XLK

▼ -0.02%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.70%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.73T

▼ -0.22% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$256.9B

● 0.00% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.61T

▼ -2.44%

BTC DOMINANCE

59.6%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$75.0B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.76T

Analyst Note: The 2s10s spread is unavailable, so no yield-curve conclusion can be drawn. Stablecoin market capitalization was broadly stable at $256.88 billion, down only 0.0007% over 24 hours, while SMH gained 0.96%, leaving liquidity and technology-risk signals generally supportive.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$77,598

▲ +1.29%

Support Level

$76,958

Resistance Level

$79,565

Price at $77,598 is holding above support ($76,958), with resistance at $79,565.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0556%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.023%

24h High

-0.066%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC and ETH funding rates are positive at 0.0126% and 0.0071%, respectively, indicating moderate demand for long exposure without signaling excessive leverage. The 24-hour decline in BTC and ETH open interest suggests part of the advance has been accompanied by leverage reduction.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$70,000

Deribit DVOL Index

36.32 ▼ -0.96

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.55

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0126%
ETH	▲ +0.0071%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	152.13M ▼ -1.95%
ETH	59.25M ▼ -3.19%
SOL	29.86M ▲ +2.03%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Sep 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+101.1M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+115.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+0.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: IBIT recorded a $115.4 million inflow on September 2, while total spot Bitcoin ETF flows reached a net $101.1 million; FBTC flow was $0.0 million. Positive flows indicate buying pressure and negative flows indicate selling pressure, although ETF data alone does not guarantee price direction.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

02 Sep 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-48.2M

ETHA (BlackRock)

-53.4M

FETH (Fidelity)

-26.2M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$77,598.00	▼ -0.30%	▲ +1.29%	▼ -2.60%
ETH	$2,392.78	▼ -0.40%	▲ +0.86%	▼ -5.40%
XRP	$1.3600	▼ -0.60%	▲ +2.86%	▼ -5.00%
SOL	$100.13	▼ -0.50%	▲ +1.73%	▼ -4.20%
TRX	$0.327036	▲ +0.20%	▲ +1.33%	▼ -2.70%
HYPE	$81.7600	▼ -0.30%	▲ +0.94%	▼ -0.90%
DOGE	$0.082781	▼ -0.40%	▲ +2.55%	▼ -7.00%
LINK	$11.1500	▼ -0.50%	▲ +1.01%	▼ -5.80%
UNI	$6.0400	▲ +4.40%	▼ -0.44%	▲ +36.60%
TON	$1.3300	▼ -0.60%	▲ +0.88%	▼ -7.00%

Hope fading for survivors a week after devastating flood in Nepal - Reuters

AI Insight: The Nepal flood’s humanitarian toll is more relevant as a sentiment and headline-risk factor than as a direct market catalyst; the VIX at 15.32 and positive Bitcoin ETF flows indicate that markets are currently assigning only a limited risk premium.

Reuters · 08:24

Iran war escalation raises concern over civilian death toll - Reuters

AI Insight: Escalation in the Iran conflict and concerns about civilian casualties raise uncertainty around energy supply and geopolitical risk premia. Brent’s 21.40% 30-day gain reflects this sensitivity, while the 0.35% DXY decline and positive funding rates suggest risk appetite has not been fully impaired.

Reuters · 08:12

Oil falls from recent highs as investors weigh uncertainty over US-Iran strikes - Reuters

AI Insight: The pullback in oil from recent highs suggests that some uncertainty around U.S.-Iran strikes and the probability of a severe supply shock has eased. Still, Brent at $96.45 and up 7.53% over seven days keeps upside inflation and Fed-expectations risks alive, making tomorrow’s labor data particularly important.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.