NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Fri, Sep 4 2026

RISK-ON Rising equities, crypto assets and ETF inflows point to strong risk appetite.

Markets are displaying a broad-based advance consistent with a RISK_ON regime: Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.40%, SMH gained 0.39% and major technology stocks advanced, while the VIX declined to 14.24. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.4 basis points to 4.762%, while a 0.11% rise in the DXY created only modest pressure on risk assets. Total crypto market capitalization increased 1.20% to $2.72 trillion, with BTC up 4.49%, ETH 5.41% and XRP 6.60%; the Fear & Greed index stood at 74, or Greed, and BTC dominance was 59.76%. Brent crude gained 6.76% on the week to $95.35, showing that US-Iran tensions are increasing inflation and supply risks even as risk assets have so far absorbed the shock. Today’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings and unemployment data will be crucial for rate expectations and the durability of the rally ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Can the Hormuz risk turn the oil shock into a lasting supply crisis?

The intensifying US-Iran conflict and South Korea’s review of Hormuz options require investors to determine whether oil’s weekly gain reflects a temporary geopolitical premium or expectations of physical supply disruption. The concrete signal to monitor is whether increased military engagement around Hormuz is accompanied by deterioration in EIA inventory, production, or export data.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Oil prices set for weekly gain as US-Iran hostilities intensify - Reuters — The drivers of oil’s weekly move, the supply risk, and the market’s response to the geopolitical premium.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, production, and import-export flows that could confirm a supply shock.
Reuters — South Korea reviewing military options for Hormuz, no decision made, official says - Reuters — South Korea’s potential military role in Hormuz and whether it raises the risk to maritime transport.

MACRO

Will the jobs report reprice the Fed’s September 16 decision?

Today’s payrolls consensus is 55K, with unemployment expected at 4.1% and average hourly earnings at 0.3% month over month, versus a previous employment change of -23K. The research question is whether weak hiring and wage pressure arrive together, and how that combination changes the 4.762% 10-year yield, the DXY, and pricing for the FOMC in 12 days; the key threshold is the report’s deviation from consensus across payrolls, wages, and unemployment.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Employment Situation (NFP) — Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings, and employment revisions.
Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — The official September 16, 2026 FOMC schedule and the decision/statement to be released.
CME FedWatch Tool — How interest-rate futures reprice expectations for the FOMC after the employment report.

CRYPTO

Are ETF inflows driving crypto through spot demand or leverage?

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $730.8 million of inflows and Ethereum ETFs $141.4 million on September 3, while total crypto market capitalization rose 1.20% in 24 hours; however, ETH open interest increased 22.73%, SOL funding reached 0.1331%, and the Coinbase premium fell to -0.1357%. The research question is whether strong ETF flows represent durable spot demand or a rally made fragile by derivatives leverage; Bitcoin’s 81,739.995 resistance and 78,721.995 support should be monitored alongside funding, open interest, and the Coinbase premium.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Fund-level composition and persistence of the $730.8 million total Bitcoin ETF inflow on September 3.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Fund-level composition of the $141.4 million Ethereum ETF inflow on September 3.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — BTC, ETH, and SOL funding rates and open-interest changes to assess whether ETF inflows are being amplified by leverage.

NASDAQ 100

29,644

▲ +0.40%

DXY

99.1090

▲ +0.11%

GOLD

$4,515

▲ +0.52%

10Y UST

4.76%

▼ -3.40%

VIX

14.2

▼ -0.56%

BTC

$81,091

▲ +4.49%

BTC.D

59.8%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (12 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
31 Aug Mon	09:29	German Prelim CPI MoM	EUR	0.8%	0.3%	N/A
01 Sep Tue	12:00	Core CPI Flash Estimate YoY	EUR	2.5%	2.5%	N/A
01 Sep Tue	12:00	CPI Flash Estimate YoY	EUR	2.9%	3.3%	N/A
01 Sep Tue	17:00	ISM Manufacturing PMI	USD	55.6	55.2	N/A
01 Sep Tue	17:00	JOLTS Job Openings	USD	7.36M	7.33M	N/A
02 Sep Wed	15:15	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	44K	47K	N/A
03 Sep Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	203K	205K	206K
03 Sep Thu	17:00	ISM Services PMI	USD	54.1	54.2	N/A
04 Sep Fri	15:30	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	USD	0.1%	0.3%
04 Sep Fri	15:30	Non-Farm Employment Change	USD	-23K	55K
04 Sep Fri	15:30	Unemployment Rate	USD	4.1%	4.1%

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	328.21	▲ +1.00%	▲ +4.33%	▲ +5.62%
MSFT Microsoft	510.12	▲ +2.68%	▲ +1.00%	▲ +4.85%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	342.48	▲ +1.59%	▲ +0.54%	▼ -5.50%
AMZN Amazon	258.90	▲ +1.54%	▲ +1.03%	▼ -5.04%
NVDA NVIDIA	228.45	▲ +1.80%	▲ +0.21%	▲ +4.21%
META Meta	610.68	▲ +3.01%	▲ +6.93%	▲ +3.72%
TSLA Tesla	376.37	▲ +5.42%	▲ +6.08%	▲ +17.05%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,515.10	▲ +0.52%	▲ +0.83%	▲ +6.44%
XAG Silver	$67.33	▲ +0.54%	▲ +0.51%	▲ +9.60%
HG Copper	$6.65	▲ +1.12%	▲ +1.35%	▼ -0.55%
BZ Brent Oil	$95.35	▼ -0.18%	▲ +6.76%	▲ +15.59%

S&P 500 Sectors

Financials

XLF

▲ +1.56%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +1.39%

Technology

XLK

▲ +1.29%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +1.19%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +1.03%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.85%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.84%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.18%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.32%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.62%

Energy

XLE

▼ -0.74%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.74T

▲ +0.09% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$257.5B

▲ +0.26% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.72T

▲ +1.20%

BTC DOMINANCE

59.8%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$111.7B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.79T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, so the yield-curve signal cannot be assessed. Stablecoin market capitalization rose 0.26% to $257.55 billion, while Copper/Gold gained 0.52% and SMH rose 0.39%; these liquidity- and growth-sensitive indicators broadly reinforce risk appetite.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$81,091

▲ +4.49%

Support Level

$78,722

Resistance Level

$81,740

Price at $81,091 is holding above support ($78,722), with resistance at $81,740.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.1357%

▼ US selling pressure

+0.020%

24h High

-0.136%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

37.78 ▲ +0.53

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.55

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0006%
ETH	▲ +0.0198%
SOL	▲ +0.1331%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	160.36M ▲ +5.41%
ETH	72.72M ▲ +22.73%
SOL	29.54M ▼ -1.10%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

03 Sep 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+730.8M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+454.0M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+74.4M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $730.8 million of total inflows on September 3, including $454.0 million into IBIT and $74.4 million into FBTC. Positive flows indicate institutional buying pressure, but the unusually strong one-day inflow should be monitored alongside price action because a reversal could create selling pressure.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

03 Sep 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+141.4M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+72.1M

FETH (Fidelity)

+65.1M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$81,091.00	▲ +0.60%	▲ +4.49%	▲ +1.80%
ETH	$2,523.51	▲ +0.90%	▲ +5.41%	▲ +1.20%
XRP	$1.4500	▲ +0.90%	▲ +6.60%	▲ +2.50%
SOL	$104.25	▲ +0.70%	▲ +4.07%	▼ -2.00%
TRX	$0.327914	▲ +0.10%	▲ +0.27%	▼ -3.30%
HYPE	$86.6800	▲ +0.60%	▲ +6.04%	▲ +3.30%
DOGE	$0.087826	▲ +0.70%	▲ +6.00%	▲ +0.10%
LINK	$12.0800	▲ +1.20%	▲ +8.27%	▲ +3.10%
UNI	$6.3400	▲ +2.20%	▲ +5.17%	▲ +38.10%
TON	$1.3800	▲ +0.50%	▲ +3.25%	▼ -2.50%

Oil prices set for weekly gain as US-Iran hostilities intensify - Reuters

AI Insight: The 6.76% weekly rise in oil increases geopolitical supply and inflation risks, but the VIX at 14.24, a 0.40% gain in Nasdaq futures and strong ETF inflows show that markets have not yet converted the shock into broad risk-asset selling.

Reuters · 23:57

US probes Iran wedding strike that analysis shows was likely direct hit by US munition - Reuters

AI Insight: The investigation into the Iranian wedding strike could increase the conflict’s humanitarian and political costs, raising the geopolitical risk premium. Nevertheless, BTC rose 4.49% and spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $730.8 million, suggesting institutional demand is currently offsetting the uncertainty in the news flow.

Reuters · 22:13

Deadly strike on Iranian wedding was likely a direct hit by a US munition, analysis shows - Reuters

AI Insight: Analysis indicating a likely direct hit by a U.S. munition keeps escalation risk elevated; Brent’s 15.59% 30-day gain highlights the market relevance of that channel. Coinbase premium slipped to -0.136% even as ETF demand remained strong, pointing to institutional support alongside near-term caution in U.S. spot demand.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.