NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Tue, Sep 8 2026

RISK-ON A softer DXY, a stronger copper-to-gold ratio and Greed-level sentiment are supporting risk appetite despite geopolitical risks.

The risk-on regime remains intact, supported by a weaker dollar and strength in the copper-to-gold signal. Despite short-term volatility in crypto, BTC has recovered on a weekly basis, while ETH, XRP, and selected altcoins show stronger momentum. The Fear and Greed indicator remains in the greed zone, pointing to constructive investor sentiment. However, weakness in some major technology stocks and broader intraday pressure call for cautious optimism toward the upside trend.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Hormuz and Saudi energy infrastructure: can the oil-supply shock become persistent?

Slower Hormuz traffic and attacks on Saudi energy facilities test how far geopolitical risk is reaching physical oil flows and importing economies. The key signal is confirmation of deterioration in supply and inventories, alongside whether pressure on the rupee and Indian equities intensifies.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Hormuz traffic slows after Iran threatens retaliation for US attacks - Reuters — The extent of the Hormuz slowdown, Iran’s retaliation threat, and the effect on shipments.
Reuters — Houthi attacks disrupt Saudi energy facilities, wound 73, authorities say - Reuters — Which Saudi energy facilities and operations were disrupted by the attacks.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — US crude and product inventories, production, imports, and refinery utilization for confirmation of a supply shock.

MACRO

Is the oil shock resetting inflation and central-bank pricing?

With oil nearing a six-week high, the 11 September US CPI release matters not only for core inflation but also for energy pass-through; eight days before the Fed meeting, markets may price inflation and growth risks together. Watch whether CPI deviates from the 0.4% headline and 0.2% core monthly forecasts and how CME FedWatch reprices rates.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Compare the 11 September headline and core monthly/yearly CPI figures with forecasts.
CME FedWatch Tool — Track how FOMC rate probabilities are repriced after CPI and PPI.
Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Review the 16 September FOMC schedule and, when released, its inflation-risk messaging.

CRYPTO

Are ETF inflows masking fragility in crypto derivatives?

Bitcoin ETFs saw $174.6 million of inflows and Ethereum ETFs $25.9 million, yet total crypto market capitalization fell 3.15% in 24 hours; rising ETH and SOL open interest suggests leverage is concentrating. The research question is whether spot demand can absorb that risk appetite: monitor Bitcoin’s $77,496.4 support and $80,514.4 resistance, and whether the Coinbase premium recovers from -0.0245.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Check whether daily total Bitcoin ETF inflows and the IBIT/FBTC contributions continue.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Track whether the Ethereum ETF total and the divergence between ETHA and FETH flows persist.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Monitor BTC, ETH, and SOL open interest, funding rates, leverage buildup, and liquidation risk.

NASDAQ 100

29,588

▲ +0.08%

DXY

98.9410

▼ -0.22%

GOLD

$4,449

▲ +0.44%

10Y UST

N/A

—

VIX

15.6

▲ +1.76%

BTC

$78,703

▼ -0.83%

BTC.D

58.9%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (8 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons
10 Sep Thu	15:15	Main Refinancing Rate	EUR	2.40%	2.65%
10 Sep Thu	15:15	Monetary Policy Statement	EUR	N/A	N/A
10 Sep Thu	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.3%
10 Sep Thu	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	0.0%	0.4%
10 Sep Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	205K
11 Sep Fri	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.2%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.5%	2.4%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	0.1%	0.4%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	3.4%	3.4%
11 Sep Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	51.0	51.0
11 Sep Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.3%	N/A

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	319.97	▼ -2.51%	▲ +0.08%	▲ +2.51%
MSFT Microsoft	499.70	▼ -2.04%	▼ -2.69%	▲ +0.16%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	338.46	▼ -1.11%	▼ -2.28%	▼ -5.33%
AMZN Amazon	258.51	▼ -0.15%	▼ -2.97%	▼ -5.05%
NVDA NVIDIA	230.36	▲ +0.84%	▲ +5.89%	▲ +5.19%
META Meta	616.77	▲ +1.00%	▲ +6.70%	▲ +4.56%
TSLA Tesla	354.08	▼ -5.92%	▲ +1.53%	▲ +10.81%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,449.40	▲ +0.44%	▲ +0.41%	▲ +2.50%
XAG Silver	$66.75	▲ +1.06%	▲ +0.79%	▲ +5.39%
HG Copper	$6.79	▲ +2.98%	▲ +3.03%	▲ +3.39%
BZ Brent Oil	$98.41	▲ +2.21%	▲ +8.75%	▲ +17.79%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

▲ +0.70%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.41%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.12%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.34%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.72%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.79%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.80%

Energy

XLE

▼ -0.87%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -1.04%

Communication

XLC

▼ -1.19%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -1.33%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.74T

▲ +0.09% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$257.7B

▼ -0.08% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.68T

▼ -3.15%

BTC DOMINANCE

58.9%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$79.6B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.80T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, so the yield-curve risk signal cannot be assessed; combined stablecoin market capitalization fell 0.08% over 24 hours to $257.67 billion. A 2.61% rise in SMH and a 2.61% increase in the copper-to-gold ratio support risk appetite, although narrow sector breadth argues for caution.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$78,703

▼ -0.83%

Support Level

$77,496

Resistance Level

$80,514

Price at $78,703 is holding above support ($77,496), with resistance at $80,514.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0245%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.001%

24h High

-0.048%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC funding was 0.0043% and ETH funding 0.0121%, favoring long positioning; ETH open interest rose 4.12% while BTC open interest declined 2.27%. Basis data is unavailable, so the degree of futures premium over spot cannot be confirmed.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

39.60 ▲ +1.40

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.53

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0043%
ETH	▲ +0.0121%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	156.47M ▼ -2.27%
ETH	77.65M ▲ +4.12%
SOL	33.19M ▲ +8.99%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

04 Sep 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+174.6M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+117.4M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+57.2M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $117.4 million of inflows into IBIT and $57.2 million into FBTC, for a total of $174.6 million; positive flows indicate buying pressure. However, the Coinbase premium at -0.0245% shows that US spot demand is positive but not aggressively bid.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

04 Sep 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+25.9M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+57.8M

FETH (Fidelity)

-48.3M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$78,703.00	▲ +0.40%	▼ -0.83%	▲ +1.10%
ETH	$2,489.66	▲ +0.60%	▲ +0.11%	▲ +1.80%
XRP	$1.4000	▲ +0.70%	▲ +0.10%	▲ +2.60%
SOL	$103.65	▲ +0.60%	▼ -1.10%	▲ +1.50%
TRX	$0.338631	▲ +0.10%	▲ +0.61%	▲ +2.60%
HYPE	$84.3000	▲ +0.40%	▼ -3.60%	▲ +1.60%
DOGE	$0.090492	▲ +1.30%	▲ +1.24%	▲ +9.90%
LINK	$12.7200	▲ +0.60%	▼ -4.51%	▲ +12.20%
UNI	$7.1100	▲ +1.10%	▲ +1.58%	▲ +25.10%
TON	$1.4000	▲ +0.50%	▼ -1.48%	▲ +2.90%

Houthi attacks disrupt Saudi energy facilities, wound 73, authorities say - Reuters

AI Insight: Attacks on Saudi energy facilities are lifting the supply and inflation premium; Brent at $98.41 and up 8.75% over seven days creates an important headwind for risk assets ahead of the PPI and CPI releases. Still, $174.6 million of ETF inflows and positive funding indicate that markets are absorbing the shock for now.

Reuters · 02:56

Rupee slips as oil nears six-week high, RBI intervention limits losses - Reuters

AI Insight: The rupee weakened as oil approached a six-week high, while RBI intervention limited losses, highlighting emerging-market sensitivity to energy-driven inflation and dollar liquidity. The 0.22% DXY decline is supportive, but the negative Coinbase premium and 3.15% 24-hour decline in total crypto market capitalization show that demand remains fragile.

Reuters · 02:53

Hormuz traffic slows after Iran threatens retaliation for US attacks - Reuters

AI Insight: Slower traffic through the Strait of Hormuz raises energy-supply and freight risks and could make the Brent rally more persistent. Although the VIX remains low at 15.57 and Nasdaq futures are up 0.08%, the geopolitical shock increases the importance of the upcoming PPI and CPI data for rate expectations.

NOCASHFLOW bulletin.

Read on Web

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.