NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Wed, Sep 9 2026

NEUTRAL Markets remain in a neutral regime: crypto performance and the copper-to-gold ratio provide support, while higher volatility and bond yields temper risk appetite.

The market backdrop remains neutral. VIX at 16.04 rose 2.04%, while MOVE at 76.14 points to higher Treasury-market volatility; the US 10-year yield climbed to 4.806%. Brent crude rose to $100.79, putting Middle East supply risks back at the center of the inflation and growth outlook. Total crypto market capitalization fell to $2.68 trillion, down 2.47% over 24 hours, although Bitcoin gained 2.8% over seven days and Ethereum rose 4.1%; the Fear & Greed Index remained in Greed at 66. US PPI releases tomorrow and CPI data on September 11 will be crucial for rate expectations, particularly as higher energy prices may reinforce inflation pressure; the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 16.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Is the Hormuz traffic decline becoming a lasting supply shock?

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz staying below its 10-day average while Brent rises above $100 requires testing whether geopolitical risk is turning into a genuine physical supply disruption. Track whether traffic recovers, whether oil holds above the $100 threshold, and whether the EIA’s weekly inventory and supply data confirm tightening conditions.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz stays below 10-day average, data shows - Reuters — Examine the level of vessel traffic through the strait versus the 10-day average and the scale of the decline.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check U.S. crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, and trade flows to test whether the price move is confirmed by physical supply tightening.
Reuters — Brent crude rises above $100 a barrel as Middle East conflict intensifies - Reuters — Compare the geopolitical supply-risk narrative with Brent’s move through the $100 threshold.

MACRO

How will the bond-market shock reshape Fed pricing ahead of PPI and CPI?

With the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.806% and MOVE at 76.14, the September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI releases will test whether inflation risk is being repriced. The key question is how pricing changes ahead of the September 16 FOMC if PPI exceeds the 0.4% headline and 0.3% core forecasts; monitor those data thresholds, the 10-year yield, and CME FedWatch probabilities.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Compare the September 11 headline and core monthly and annual CPI readings with forecasts, particularly the 0.4% headline monthly and 0.2% core monthly thresholds.
Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Review the September 16 FOMC statement and its guidance on inflation and the rate path.
CME FedWatch Tool — Track changes in market-implied FOMC expectations before and after PPI and CPI, and compare them with the 2026 median dot projection.

CRYPTO

Is the crypto selloff a leverage unwind or weakening institutional demand?

Total crypto market capitalization fell 2.47% in 24 hours while BTC open interest rose 6.25%, the Coinbase premium slipped to -0.057, and spot ETF flows posted a $46.6 million net outflow. The research question is whether the decline reflects an unwind of newly added leverage or continued weakness in U.S. demand; BTC support at $77,698, resistance at $80,670, funding rates, and ETF flows are the key signals.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Break down the $46.6 million total net outflow on September 8 by fund and check whether demand recovers over subsequent sessions.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Check the 6.25% increase in BTC open interest, the 0.007629% funding rate, and whether the decline is producing leveraged liquidations.
Coinbase Premium and market data — Use BTC price and market-structure data to assess whether the Coinbase premium remaining at -0.057 coincides with persistent weakness in U.S. spot demand.

NASDAQ 100

29,408

▼ -0.44%

DXY

98.8410

● 0.00%

GOLD

$4,433

▲ +0.89%

10Y UST

4.81%

▲ +2.20%

VIX

16.0

▲ +2.04%

BTC

$79,003

▲ +0.38%

BTC.D

59.0%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (7 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons
10 Sep Thu	15:15	Main Refinancing Rate	EUR	2.40%	2.65%
10 Sep Thu	15:15	Monetary Policy Statement	EUR	N/A	N/A
10 Sep Thu	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.3%
10 Sep Thu	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	0.0%	0.4%
10 Sep Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	205K
11 Sep Fri	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.2%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.5%	2.4%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	0.1%	0.4%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	3.4%	3.4%
11 Sep Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	51.0	51.0
11 Sep Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.3%	N/A

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	316.22	▼ -1.17%	▼ -0.20%	▲ +1.01%
MSFT Microsoft	493.95	▼ -1.15%	▼ -2.63%	▼ -1.02%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	338.36	▼ -0.03%	▼ -0.23%	▼ -4.44%
AMZN Amazon	256.97	▼ -0.60%	▼ -1.08%	▼ -6.38%
NVDA NVIDIA	225.73	▼ -2.01%	▲ +2.24%	▲ +0.79%
META Meta	613.48	▼ -0.53%	▲ +7.19%	▲ +3.61%
TSLA Tesla	368.16	▲ +3.98%	▲ +0.06%	▲ +12.05%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,433.10	▲ +0.89%	▲ +1.96%	▲ +1.63%
XAG Silver	$66.90	▲ +0.92%	▲ +3.54%	▲ +2.76%
HG Copper	$6.75	▲ +0.19%	▲ +3.77%	▲ +2.39%
BZ Brent Oil	$100.79	▲ +2.93%	▲ +6.49%	▲ +14.90%

S&P 500 Sectors

Energy

XLE

▲ +1.11%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.86%

Technology

XLK

▲ +0.32%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.07%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.46%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.48%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.66%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.80%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.95%

Financials

XLF

▼ -1.38%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -2.52%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.74T

▲ +0.09% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$257.8B

▲ +0.06% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.68T

▼ -2.47%

BTC DOMINANCE

59.0%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$88.5B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.80T

Analyst Note: Combined stablecoin market capitalization rose 0.056% over 24 hours to $257.8 billion, indicating that the liquidity buffer remains intact. SMH gained 1.19%, but the 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, preventing an assessment of the yield curve's contribution to risk appetite.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$79,003

▲ +0.38%

Support Level

$77,698

Resistance Level

$80,670

Price at $79,003 is holding above support ($77,698), with resistance at $80,670.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0574%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.002%

24h High

-0.057%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC and ETH funding rates are positive at 0.0076% and 0.0048%, respectively, while BTC open interest rose 6.25% over 24 hours, indicating growing leveraged long exposure. Futures basis data is unavailable, so no firm conclusion can be drawn about the futures premium structure.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

40.35 ▲ +0.95

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.54

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0076%
ETH	▲ +0.0048%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	166.25M ▲ +6.25%
ETH	78.52M ▲ +1.12%
SOL	30.40M ▼ -8.40%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

08 Sep 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-46.6M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+10.7M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-17.1M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: On September 8, IBIT recorded a $10.7 million inflow while FBTC saw a $17.1 million outflow, leaving total spot Bitcoin ETF flows negative by $46.6 million. Positive inflows signal buying pressure and negative outflows signal selling pressure; the net outflow, alongside a Coinbase premium of -0.057%, suggests limited institutional demand.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

08 Sep 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-24.3M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+0.0M

FETH (Fidelity)

+9.9M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$79,003.00	▼ -0.90%	▲ +0.38%	▲ +2.80%
ETH	$2,493.16	▼ -1.20%	▲ +0.19%	▲ +4.10%
XRP	$1.4200	▼ -1.20%	▲ +1.77%	▲ +6.80%
SOL	$103.86	▼ -1.30%	▲ +0.27%	▲ +4.60%
TRX	$0.339120	▼ -0.10%	▲ +0.16%	▲ +5.00%
HYPE	$85.8100	▼ -1.00%	▲ +1.89%	▲ +5.20%
DOGE	$0.090374	▼ -1.40%	▼ -0.12%	▲ +11.30%
LINK	$12.2300	▼ -2.00%	▼ -3.66%	▲ +10.40%
UNI	$6.6600	▼ -2.60%	▼ -6.05%	▲ +7.70%
TON	$1.4000	▼ -1.10%	▲ +0.15%	▲ +6.10%

Shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz stays below 10-day average, data shows - Reuters

AI Insight: Shipping traffic below the 10-day average through the Strait of Hormuz adds to uncertainty over energy supply. Brent at $100.79, together with higher 10-year yields and upcoming PPI and CPI releases, brings inflation risk back into focus and supports a neutral regime.

Reuters · 09:10

Brent crude rises above $100 a barrel as Middle East conflict intensifies - Reuters

AI Insight: Brent moving above $100 supports the energy sector but restrains broader risk appetite. Higher VIX and MOVE, positive BTC funding rates, and $46.6 million of net ETF outflows indicate that investors are adding risk cautiously rather than committing to a broad risk-on move.

Reuters · 08:44

Oil nears $100 as fresh Middle East strikes raise supply risks - Reuters

AI Insight: Fresh Middle East strikes increase the risk of supply disruptions and add upside pressure to crude prices. Ahead of the September 11 CPI release, this could challenge rate-cut expectations; the decline in total crypto market capitalization and negative Coinbase premium reinforce the defensive tone.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.