NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Thu, Sep 10 2026

RISK-ON Rising copper-to-gold and Greed-zone sentiment are supporting risk appetite despite near-term volatility.

The risk-on regime remains intact, with the copper-to-gold ratio up 3.27% and the Fear & Greed Index at 69 in Greed territory. Still, total crypto market capitalization fell to $2.67 trillion, down 3.26% over 24 hours, while BTC at $77,945 declined 1.29% and ETH fell 0.94%. BTC dominance remains at 58.56%, while BTC and ETH are still up 21.6% and 31.4% over 30 days, respectively. Macro markets show VIX at 16.49, DXY at 98.81 and the US 10-year yield at 4.837%; MOVE at 76.74 keeps rates volatility on the radar. Today’s US PPI releases and Friday’s CPI are key for Fed expectations, with six days to the next FOMC meeting and the median rate path at 3.8%.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

MACRO

Will Treasury volatility and inflation data break risk appetite?

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.837%, while MOVE stands at 76.74 and VIX at 16.49; ahead of tomorrow’s CPI, the key research question is whether bond-market stress is spilling into equities and crypto. The concrete threshold is whether a CPI deviation from the 0.4% headline monthly and 0.2% core monthly forecasts pushes the 10-year yield above its current level.

Primary Sources / Reports:

BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Compare the September 11 headline and core monthly/yearly CPI releases with the 0.4% headline monthly and 0.2% core monthly forecasts.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Track the 10-year yield after CPI and test whether it breaks materially above 4.837%.
CME FedWatch Tool — Check how the inflation release changes rate expectations ahead of the September 16 FOMC meeting.

POLICY

Are the Iran war and sanctions evasion making the energy risk premium persistent?

Trump’s claim that the war will end after the U.S. midterms, together with Reuters’ investigation into sanctions evasion keeping Chinese goods flowing to Iran, raises the question of whether geopolitical risk is merely a headline shock or a lasting premium in supply chains and energy markets. The concrete signal is whether deterioration in petroleum supply or inventories coincides with continued outperformance in energy equities.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Trump says Iran war to end after US midterm elections, threatens to attack Pickaxe Mountain - Reuters — Examine the war timetable, threatened military actions and the mechanisms that could translate them into supply-security risk.
Reuters — EXCLUSIVE: How a billion-dollar sanctions dodge kept Chinese goods flowing to Iran - Reuters — Investigate the trade channels and goods through which sanctions evasion is preserving supply flows.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Monitor U.S. petroleum inventories, refinery activity and import/export flows for changes consistent with a geopolitical supply shock.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin’s institutional demand versus derivatives leverage

Crypto market capitalization fell 3.26% over 24 hours as Bitcoin ETFs recorded $120.2 million of net outflows, the Coinbase premium reached -0.0763 and BTC open interest rose 2.34%; the research question is whether price pressure reflects weaker spot demand or leveraged positioning. Key thresholds are the $77,809.01 support, $80,149.005 resistance, the direction of ETF flows and a possible turn in the Coinbase premium from negative to positive.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Break down the September 9 $120.2 million aggregate outflow by fund and check whether subsequent flows reverse direction.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Examine BTC open interest and funding-rate changes alongside liquidations around the $77,809.01 support and $80,149.005 resistance.
Glassnode Insights — Assess whether spot demand, exchange flows and long-term-holder behavior confirm the price decline.

NASDAQ 100

29,409

▼ -0.14%

DXY

98.8140

▲ +0.04%

GOLD

$4,437

▲ +0.48%

10Y UST

4.84%

▲ +3.10%

VIX

16.5

▲ +0.18%

BTC

$77,945

▼ -1.29%

BTC.D

58.6%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (6 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons
10 Sep Thu	15:15	Main Refinancing Rate	EUR	2.40%	2.65%
10 Sep Thu	15:15	Monetary Policy Statement	EUR	N/A	N/A
10 Sep Thu	15:30	Core PPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.3%
10 Sep Thu	15:30	PPI MoM	USD	0.0%	0.4%
10 Sep Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	205K
11 Sep Fri	15:30	Core CPI MoM	USD	0.2%	0.2%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	Core CPI YoY	USD	2.5%	2.4%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	CPI MoM	USD	0.1%	0.4%
11 Sep Fri	15:30	CPI YoY	USD	3.4%	3.4%
11 Sep Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	USD	51.0	51.0
11 Sep Fri	17:00	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations	USD	4.3%	N/A

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	315.34	▼ -0.28%	▼ -3.01%	▲ +2.30%
MSFT Microsoft	491.65	▼ -0.47%	▼ -1.87%	▼ -2.66%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	330.65	▼ -2.28%	▼ -1.24%	▼ -7.46%
AMZN Amazon	252.40	▼ -1.78%	▼ -0.99%	▼ -9.24%
NVDA NVIDIA	223.67	▼ -0.91%	▲ +2.87%	▲ +2.81%
META Meta	653.69	▲ +6.55%	▲ +12.99%	▲ +9.88%
TSLA Tesla	367.81	▼ -0.10%	▲ +3.29%	▲ +11.16%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,437.00	▲ +0.48%	▲ +1.62%	▲ +1.23%
XAG Silver	$67.18	▼ -1.13%	▲ +3.79%	▲ +3.71%
HG Copper	$6.82	▲ +0.27%	▲ +4.94%	▲ +3.18%
BZ Brent Oil	$102.33	▲ +1.11%	▲ +7.01%	▲ +15.09%

S&P 500 Sectors

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.83%

Technology

XLK

● 0.00%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.33%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.42%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.62%

Materials

XLB

▼ -1.06%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -1.12%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -1.15%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -1.17%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -1.34%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -1.51%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.74T

▲ +0.09% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$257.7B

▼ -0.04% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.67T

▼ -3.26%

BTC DOMINANCE

58.6%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$90.4B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.81T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, so the yield curve cannot provide directional confirmation. SMH rose 0.10%, supporting the risk-on signal, while combined stablecoin market capitalization stood at $257.70 billion, down 0.04% over 24 hours, indicating limited fresh liquidity expansion.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$77,945

▼ -1.29%

Support Level

$77,809

Resistance Level

$80,149

Price at $77,945 is holding above support ($77,809), with resistance at $80,149.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0763%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.019%

24h High

-0.076%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC funding is mildly positive at 0.0134%, while open interest rose 2.34% over 24 hours, indicating continued but not excessive bullish positioning. ETH funding is 0.0012%, whereas SOL funding is -0.5006% and ETH/SOL open interest declined, pointing to a more cautious altcoin derivatives backdrop.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

39.11 ▼ -1.54

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.55

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0134%
ETH	▲ +0.0012%
SOL	▼ -0.5006%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	170.13M ▲ +2.34%
ETH	72.12M ▼ -8.15%
SOL	28.32M ▼ -6.83%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

09 Sep 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-120.2M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-19.5M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+0.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $120.2 million in total outflows on September 9; IBIT saw a $19.5 million outflow and FBTC flow was zero. Positive flows indicate buying pressure and negative flows indicate selling pressure, so the latest daily data suggests softer institutional demand despite strong monthly crypto performance.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

09 Sep 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+34.7M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+9.7M

FETH (Fidelity)

+0.0M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$77,945.00	▼ -0.20%	▼ -1.29%	▲ +0.20%
ETH	$2,467.19	▼ -0.20%	▼ -0.94%	▲ +2.70%
XRP	$1.3800	▼ -0.30%	▼ -3.07%	▲ +0.60%
SOL	$101.05	▼ -0.10%	▼ -2.39%	▲ +0.40%
TRX	$0.340224	▲ +0.20%	▲ +0.33%	▲ +4.20%
HYPE	$82.7600	▼ -0.30%	▼ -3.39%	▲ +1.00%
DOGE	$0.084894	▼ -0.40%	▼ -5.84%	▲ +2.10%
LINK	$11.8000	▲ +0.20%	▼ -3.52%	▲ +5.30%
TON	$1.3700	▼ -0.10%	▼ -2.18%	▲ +1.90%
UNI	$6.0100	▲ +0.30%	▼ -9.79%	▲ +3.40%

'Fear gauge' VIX is starting to attract hedges into historically volatile part of calendar

Big moves in Treasury yields over the past couple of months have led to a renewed focus on the CBOE Volatility Index and the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate.

AI Insight: The VIX attracting hedging demand ahead of a historically volatile calendar period suggests portfolio insurance against tail risks rather than an outright reversal of the risk-on regime; VIX remains relatively low at 16.49, although MOVE at 76.74 and the 4.837% 10-year yield keep rate volatility important.

Reuters · 07:55

Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings - Reuters

AI Insight: Trump’s proposed $5,000 payout could influence fiscal-policy and deficit expectations if Republicans win, potentially lifting the discount rate for risk assets through the 4.837% 10-year yield. Positive BTC funding and rising open interest also imply that leveraged positions could become more sensitive to a renewed fiscal-risk narrative.

Reuters · 06:13

Trump says Iran war to end after US midterm elections, threatens to attack Pickaxe Mountain - Reuters

AI Insight: The prospect of the Iran war lasting through the US midterm elections, together with threats of further attacks, raises geopolitical risk premia; Brent crude at $102.33 and up 7.01% over seven days could reinforce inflation pressure through energy costs. This makes the risk-on backdrop more dependent on oil and Treasury markets ahead of PPI and CPI.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.