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NOCASHFLOW
DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETINGlobal Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
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Fri, Sep 11 2026
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RISK-ON
Risk appetite remains supported by a lower VIX, firmer Nasdaq futures and a constructive copper-to-gold signal.
Global markets remain in a risk-on regime, supported by the VIX falling to 17.22 and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.60%. The DXY was broadly stable at 99.14, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.94%, keeping rate sensitivity elevated ahead of today’s inflation data. US CPI expectations point to a 0.4% monthly headline increase, a 0.2% core increase and 3.4% annual headline inflation; the outcome could influence pricing ahead of the Fed’s 16 September FOMC meeting. Total crypto market capitalization fell 3.84% over 24 hours to $2.64 trillion, while Bitcoin dominance held at 58.46% and Fear & Greed remained in Greed territory at 56. BTC is still up 20.9% over 30 days and ETH 30.7%, but daily weakness, negative ETF flows and a negative Coinbase premium argue for near-term caution.
STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS
MACRO
Will CPI and oil pressure push Treasury yields higher?
Today’s CPI will test how inflation data, the latest PPI readings, and oil-related price pressure alter Fed pricing. The key signals are whether headline CPI exceeds the 0.4% monthly forecast or core CPI exceeds the 0.2% forecast, and whether the 10-year yield moves materially above 4.943999767% ahead of the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Primary Sources / Reports:
- BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Check headline and core monthly/yearly CPI results against the 0.4% headline and 0.2% core forecasts.
- US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Track the 10-year Treasury yield after CPI against the 4.943999767% level and monitor the full curve.
- CME FedWatch Tool — Monitor how the CPI release changes rate pricing before the September 16 FOMC meeting.
COMMODITIES
Is the Hormuz traffic collapse becoming a durable supply shock?
The fall in Strait of Hormuz traffic to single digits, alongside security developments near Bab el-Mandeb, requires distinguishing a temporary risk premium from a physical oil-supply disruption. The concrete signals are whether shipping traffic recovers and whether weekly inventories, imports/exports, and refinery utilization simultaneously show tightening supply conditions.
Primary Sources / Reports:
- EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Review crude and product inventories, production, imports/exports, and refinery utilization for evidence that Hormuz risk is reaching physical markets.
- Reuters — Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows - Reuters — Track whether daily vessel passages through Hormuz remain in single digits and examine the reported data methodology.
- Reuters — Iran-backed Houthis reach Yemen's Dhubab on Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sources say - Reuters — Assess how security developments near Bab el-Mandeb affect Red Sea transit and energy-shipping risks.
CRYPTO
Is the crypto selloff driven by leverage or institutional outflows?
The 3.8418723668311614% 24-hour decline in total crypto market capitalization, combined with total Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows of $282.7 million and $29.9 million and sharp open-interest declines, raises the question of what kind of selling is taking place. Investigate whether ETF outflows persist and whether negative BTC funding and a Coinbase premium of -0.05450273876587477 indicate another leverage unwind; BTC support at 76754.28 and resistance at 79233.795 are the key thresholds.
Primary Sources / Reports:
- Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Check whether the $282.7 million Bitcoin ETF outflow is a one-day event or part of a continuing institutional selling sequence.
- Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Examine whether the $29.9 million Ethereum ETF outflow is occurring alongside Bitcoin flows and signals broader risk reduction.
- Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Track the 13.394721955% BTC open-interest decline, the 8.651084606% ETH decline, funding rates, and liquidations around BTC support at 76754.28 and resistance at 79233.795.
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NASDAQ 100
29,310
▲ +0.60%
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DXY
99.1370
▲ +0.05%
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GOLD
$4,386
▲ +0.48%
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10Y UST
4.94%
▲ +10.70%
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VIX
17.2
▼ -3.48%
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BTC
$77,031
▼ -1.18%
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BTC.D
58.5%
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F&G INDEX
56
Greed
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TODAY'S CALENDAR
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Next FOMC
Wed (5 days away)
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Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
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| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep Thu | 15:15 | Main Refinancing Rate |
EUR | 2.40% | 2.65% | N/A |
| 10 Sep Thu | 15:15 | Monetary Policy Statement |
EUR | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10 Sep Thu | 15:30 | Core PPI MoM |
USD | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 10 Sep Thu | 15:30 | PPI MoM |
USD | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 10 Sep Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 206K | 205K | 206K |
| 11 Sep Fri | 15:30 | Core CPI MoM |
USD | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 Sep Fri | 15:30 | Core CPI YoY |
USD | 2.5% | 2.4% | |
| 11 Sep Fri | 15:30 | CPI MoM |
USD | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 11 Sep Fri | 15:30 | CPI YoY |
USD | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| 11 Sep Fri | 17:00 | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
USD | 51.0 | 51.0 | |
| 11 Sep Fri | 17:00 | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations |
USD | 4.3% | N/A |
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
326.57 | ▲ +3.56% | ▲ +0.50% | ▲ +7.10% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
492.44 | ▲ +0.16% | ▼ -0.88% | ▼ -2.07% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
332.60 | ▲ +0.59% | ▼ -1.28% | ▼ -3.20% | |
AMZN Amazon |
251.89 | ▼ -0.20% | ▼ -1.21% | ▼ -7.49% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
218.36 | ▼ -2.26% | ▼ -2.59% | ▲ +0.51% | |
META Meta |
644.38 | ▼ -1.42% | ▲ +8.69% | ▲ +7.55% | |
TSLA Tesla |
363.56 | ▼ -1.16% | ▲ +1.83% | ▲ +9.24% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,385.60 | ▲ +0.48% | ▼ -2.36% | ▼ -0.53% | |
XAG Silver |
$64.47 | ▲ +0.29% | ▼ -3.74% | ▼ -1.66% | |
HG Copper |
$6.54 | ▲ +1.11% | ▼ -0.59% | ▼ -0.89% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$104.15 | ▼ -3.23% | ▲ +9.03% | ▲ +17.05% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Communication
XLC
▲ +0.60%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +0.05%
Financials
XLF
▼ -0.33%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▼ -0.44%
Health Care
XLV
▼ -0.55%
Energy
XLE
▼ -0.58%
Industrials
XLI
▼ -0.72%
Real Estate
XLRE
▼ -0.83%
Utilities
XLU
▼ -0.98%
Materials
XLB
▼ -1.23%
Technology
XLK
▼ -1.41%
LIQUIDITY
FED BALANCE SHEET
$6.74T
▲ +0.05% w/w
STABLECOIN SUPPLY
$257.5B
▼ -0.09% 24H
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.64T
▼ -3.84%
BTC DOMINANCE
58.5%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$100.1B
TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)
$0.80T
Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, so the yield-curve signal cannot be assessed from that measure. Combined stablecoin market capitalization slipped to $257.48 billion, down 0.087% over 24 hours, while SMH fell 2.44%; the 1.82% rise in the copper-to-gold ratio nevertheless provides some support for risk appetite.
DERIVATIVES DESK
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Price at $77,031 is holding above support ($76,754), with resistance at $79,234.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.0545%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.023%
24h High
-0.055%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
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ETH Basis
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BTC funding is slightly negative at -0.00244%, while ETH funding is positive at 0.00730%; open interest declined 13.39% for BTC and 8.65% for ETH, suggesting leverage has been reduced. Basis data is unavailable, so no definitive conclusion can be drawn about futures premiums.
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$72,000
Deribit DVOL Index
38.70 ▼ -0.33
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.54
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
| BTC | ▼ -0.0024% |
| ETH | ▲ +0.0073% |
| SOL | N/A |
Open Interest (OI)
| BTC | 147.34M ▼ -13.39% |
| ETH | 65.88M ▼ -8.65% |
| SOL | 26.16M ▼ -7.64% |
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
10 Sep 2026
Outflow
Total Flow
-282.7M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-24.5M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-33.6M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total outflows of $282.7 million, including $24.5 million from IBIT and $33.6 million from FBTC. Negative flows indicate short-term institutional selling or profit-taking pressure, while positive inflows should be interpreted as direct buying pressure.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
10 Sep 2026
Outflow
Total Flow
-29.9M
ETHA (BlackRock)
-18.6M
FETH (Fidelity)
-25.2M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$77,031.00 | ▼ -0.40% | ▼ -1.18% | ▼ -5.10% |
ETH |
$2,469.39 | ▼ -0.30% | ▲ +0.08% | ▼ -2.20% |
XRP |
$1.3400 | ▼ -0.90% | ▼ -2.61% | ▼ -7.90% |
SOL |
$99.4100 | ▼ -0.50% | ▼ -1.64% | ▼ -4.70% |
TRX |
$0.338469 | ▼ -0.10% | ▼ -0.51% | ▲ +3.00% |
HYPE |
$79.5000 | ▼ -1.00% | ▼ -4.03% | ▼ -8.50% |
DOGE |
$0.083675 | ▼ -0.40% | ▼ -1.45% | ▼ -4.50% |
LINK |
$11.4300 | ▼ -0.60% | ▼ -3.09% | ▼ -5.30% |
TON |
$1.3500 | ▲ +0.10% | ▼ -0.91% | ▼ -1.40% |
UNI |
$6.0400 | ▼ -0.70% | ▲ +0.37% | ▼ -5.20% |
TOP STORIES
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CNBC · 08:35
Treasury yields steady as traders await consumer inflation data amid oil price pressureTreasurys steadied Friday after surging to multiyear highs, as investors await more economic data.
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AI Insight: Treasury yields rising to 4.94% while holding steady ahead of CPI shows that markets remain sensitive to an inflation surprise; however, the lower VIX and 0.60% gain in Nasdaq futures preserve the risk-on framework.
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Reuters · 08:21
Iran-backed Houthis reach Yemen's Dhubab on Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sources say - Reuters |
AI Insight: The Houthis reaching Bab el-Mandeb could increase the risk premium on energy and shipping. Brent’s 17.05% 30-day gain creates upside inflation risk for CPI expectations and Treasury yields, while BTC’s negative Coinbase premium reflects cautious near-term spot demand.
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Reuters · 06:03
UK economy grows by most since early 2025 on possible AI boost - Reuters |
AI Insight: The UK’s strongest growth since early 2025, potentially supported by AI, could reinforce global growth expectations. The 2.44% decline in SMH, however, shows that technology and AI exposure is being priced selectively.
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