NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Mon, Sep 14 2026

NEUTRAL Macro caution and a selective crypto rebound are offsetting each other, keeping the market outlook neutral.

Market conditions remain neutral as higher risk indicators are balanced by a short-term rebound in selected crypto assets. The VIX rose 11.74% to 17.70 and the DXY gained 0.45% to 99.57, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 1.54%. Brent crude climbed 2.58% to $107.31, keeping geopolitical and energy-supply risks relevant for inflation and growth. Total crypto market capitalization fell to $2.65 trillion, down 1.30% over 24 hours; BTC dominance stood at 58.91%, while Fear & Greed remained in Greed territory at 57. BTC gained 1.63% over 24 hours but was down 1.60% over seven days, while the Coinbase premium fell to -0.0877 and spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $13.2 million in net outflows. The September 16 Federal Funds Rate decision, FOMC statement and projections, together with retail-sales data due the same day, are the key near-term catalysts.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Is the Strait of Hormuz risk becoming a persistent oil supply shock?

The Iran war, the postponement of diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz and rising shipping costs may signal a lasting supply and logistics shock rather than a brief price spike. The key research signal is whether EIA inventories and product supply deteriorate while diplomatic efforts remain stalled.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Morning Bid: Shipping oil gets ever harder, costlier - Reuters — Examine the changes in freight, insurance and oil-shipping costs highlighted by the report, and identify the routes facing the greatest risk.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check US crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, imports and exports to determine whether a physical supply squeeze is emerging.
Reuters — Diplomacy stumbles with postponement of meeting on Strait of Hormuz proposal - Reuters — Track why the Hormuz proposal meeting was postponed, when the next diplomatic contact may occur and whether concrete transit-security mechanisms emerge.

MACRO

Are the FOMC, an oil shock and growth risks being priced together?

The September 16 FOMC meeting, a 4.00% federal-funds-rate forecast and a 3.8 median dot will test how an oil-supply risk feeds into inflation and consumption. The key threshold is whether retail sales versus the 0.8% forecast and core sales versus the 0.5% forecast change the market’s interpretation of the FOMC projections.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Read the September 16 policy decision, statement and projections for changes in the inflation-growth-employment balance.
CME FedWatch Tool — Track how interest-rate futures price the 4.00% expectation before and after the FOMC and how expectations for later meetings move.
BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Examine the direct effect of oil and energy prices on consumer inflation, including the energy component and headline-core divergence.

CRYPTO

What do the ETF divergence and negative Coinbase premium say about crypto demand?

A $13.2 million net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, a $216.4 million net inflow into Ethereum ETFs and a Coinbase premium falling to -0.0877 point to selective risk appetite within crypto. The research question is whether institutional demand can remain strong in ETH while BTC weakens toward the 76,992.985 support level, and whether elevated SOL funding creates leverage fragility.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Check the September 11 total Bitcoin ETF flow, the distribution across IBIT and other funds, and whether outflows persist on subsequent days.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Examine the fund-level composition and persistence of the $216.4 million Ethereum ETF inflow on September 11.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Track BTC, ETH and especially SOL funding rates and open interest to assess leverage buildup, liquidations and BTC’s reaction to the 76,992.985 support and 78,914.695 resistance levels.

NASDAQ 100

28,934

▼ -1.54%

DXY

99.5660

▲ +0.45%

GOLD

$4,332

▼ -0.77%

10Y UST

N/A

—

VIX

17.7

▲ +11.74%

BTC

$77,916

▲ +1.63%

BTC.D

58.9%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (2 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

3.80%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons
16 Sep Wed	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.3%	0.5%
16 Sep Wed	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.6%	0.8%
16 Sep Wed	21:00	Federal Funds Rate	USD	3.75%	4.00%
16 Sep Wed	21:00	FOMC Economic Projections	USD	N/A	N/A
16 Sep Wed	21:00	FOMC Statement	USD	N/A	N/A
17 Sep Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	47.4	28.9
17 Sep Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	209K

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	332.27	▲ +1.75%	▲ +1.24%	▲ +9.93%
MSFT Microsoft	495.63	▲ +0.65%	▼ -2.84%	▲ +0.84%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	338.50	▲ +1.77%	▼ -1.10%	▼ -1.40%
AMZN Amazon	256.78	▲ +1.94%	▼ -0.82%	▼ -3.93%
NVDA NVIDIA	218.29	▼ -0.03%	▼ -4.34%	▼ -2.48%
META Meta	648.03	▲ +0.57%	▲ +6.12%	▲ +11.95%
TSLA Tesla	365.44	▲ +0.52%	▼ -2.90%	▲ +11.58%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,332.40	▼ -0.77%	▼ -2.20%	▼ -0.72%
XAG Silver	$63.28	▼ -1.97%	▼ -4.19%	▼ -2.46%
HG Copper	$6.43	▼ -0.54%	▼ -2.46%	▼ -2.40%
BZ Brent Oil	$107.31	▲ +2.58%	▲ +11.46%	▲ +23.25%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

▲ +1.32%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +1.07%

Communication

XLC

▲ +0.99%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +0.89%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +0.86%

Financials

XLF

▲ +0.67%

Materials

XLB

▲ +0.37%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +0.35%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.32%

Health Care

XLV

▼ -0.18%

Utilities

XLU

▼ -0.31%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.74T

▲ +0.05% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$257.6B

▼ -0.06% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.65T

▼ -1.30%

BTC DOMINANCE

58.9%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$64.7B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.78T

Analyst Note: Combined stablecoin market capitalization slipped 0.064% over 24 hours to $257.57 billion, while the copper/gold ratio declined 0.27%; together, these signals suggest that risk appetite lacks broad confirmation. SMH rose 1.47%, but the 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, preventing additional yield-curve confirmation.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$77,916

▲ +1.63%

Support Level

$76,993

Resistance Level

$78,915

Price at $77,916 is holding above support ($76,993), with resistance at $78,915.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0877%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.026%

24h High

-0.088%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC and ETH funding rates are positive but moderate, while SOL funding is notably elevated at 0.7162%, indicating crowded long positioning and higher liquidation risk in SOL futures. Crypto futures basis data is unavailable, so the direction of futures premiums cannot be confirmed.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

38.02 ▼ -0.60

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.55

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0107%
ETH	▲ +0.0093%
SOL	▲ +0.7162%

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	149.18M
ETH	76.19M
SOL	27.00M

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

11 Sep 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-13.2M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-19.2M

FBTC (Fidelity)

+0.0M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: On September 11, IBIT recorded a $19.2 million outflow, FBTC was flat, and total spot Bitcoin ETF flows were negative by $13.2 million; negative flows generally indicate selling pressure or weaker institutional demand. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs attracted $216.4 million, pointing to selective capital rotation within crypto rather than broad-based inflows.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

11 Sep 2026

Strong Inflow

Total Flow

+216.4M

ETHA (BlackRock)

+148.8M

FETH (Fidelity)

+11.4M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$77,916.00	▲ +0.60%	▲ +1.63%	▼ -1.60%
ETH	$2,514.25	▲ +0.40%	▲ +1.61%	▲ +1.40%
XRP	$1.4000	▲ +1.40%	▲ +4.45%	● 0.00%
SOL	$101.77	▲ +0.60%	▲ +2.27%	▼ -2.50%
TRX	$0.340189	▲ +0.20%	▲ +0.05%	▲ +1.10%
HYPE	$79.8600	▲ +0.40%	▲ +3.51%	▼ -7.80%
DOGE	$0.084387	▲ +0.50%	▲ +1.28%	▼ -5.60%
LINK	$11.3800	▲ +0.70%	▲ +0.73%	▼ -14.40%
UNI	$6.3100	▲ +0.60%	▲ +1.50%	▼ -10.10%
TON	$1.3500	▲ +0.20%	▼ -0.21%	▼ -4.80%

AirBaltic files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as Iran war costs bite - Reuters

AI Insight: AirBaltic's Chapter 11 filing after Iran-war-related cost pressures shows how energy and geopolitical shocks can intensify balance-sheet stress in high-fixed-cost sectors such as aviation. Brent at $107.31 and a VIX reading of 17.70 confirm that the rebound in risk appetite remains fragile.

Reuters · 04:33

Morning Bid: Shipping oil gets ever harder, costlier - Reuters

AI Insight: More difficult and expensive oil shipping raises supply-chain risks and energy-driven inflation pressure. The DXY's rise to 99.57 and the imminent FOMC decision suggest that this supply shock could constrain risk assets through interest-rate expectations.

Reuters · 00:50

Trump downplays report China entities helped Iran before attack that killed US troops - Reuters

AI Insight: The political downplaying of claims that Chinese entities assisted Iran suggests that US-China relations still carry sanctions and supply-chain risks. The stronger DXY and negative Coinbase premium indicate that investors are not translating this geopolitical uncertainty into strong US spot demand for crypto.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.