NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Thu, Sep 17 2026

RISK-ON Falling VIX and MOVE, a stronger copper-to-gold ratio and firm technology futures show that risk appetite remains dominant.

Markets are showing a more constructive backdrop consistent with the RISK_ON regime. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced, while the VIX declined and the copper-to-gold indicator strengthened. Despite short-term volatility in crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum recovered over the past day, with gains also broadening across altcoins. However, negative ETF flows and a decline in total market capitalization indicate that risk appetite is not entirely uninterrupted. Overall, the picture points to continued selective risk-taking.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Three ships through Hormuz: tracing the supply-shock transmission into oil

The reported drop to three ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iran-war developments, warrants research into how shipping disruption is feeding into energy-supply and freight risk pricing. The key signals are whether traffic recovers and whether weekly petroleum data show deterioration in inventories or supply flows.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Number of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz falls to three on Wednesday, data shows - Reuters — Track the latest Hormuz transit count and whether shipping activity normalizes.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Examine weekly crude, gasoline and distillate inventories, imports, exports and refinery utilization.

MACRO

Post-FOMC yields and resilient consumption: is Fed pricing being rebuilt?

Stronger-than-expected retail sales and a 5.006% US 10-year yield call for a deeper review of the Fed path and the growth-inflation balance. The key thresholds are how the FOMC statement and projections alter the current 2026 median dot of 4.1%, and whether the 10-year yield remains around 5%.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Review the September 16 FOMC decision, statement and economic projections.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Track the 10-year yield above 5% and the current Treasury curve.
FRED — St. Louis Fed Economic Data — Verify the retail-sales series and related macro data connecting rates, inflation and expectations.

CRYPTO

ETF outflows and a negative Coinbase premium: temporary leverage stress or persistent demand weakness?

Net outflows of $295.9 million from Bitcoin ETFs and $224.1 million from Ethereum ETFs, combined with a negative Coinbase premium and rising BTC and ETH open interest, require a joint analysis. The concrete signals are whether Bitcoin holds the 75,650.99 support, whether the Coinbase premium recovers from -0.0976, and whether higher open interest leads to liquidations.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Review September 16 Bitcoin ETF net flows by total and individual fund.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Check whether Ethereum ETF outflows continue by total and individual fund.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Compare BTC and ETH open interest, funding rates and liquidation data with ETF flows.

NASDAQ 100

29,574

▲ +2.11%

DXY

100.1670

▼ -0.14%

GOLD

$4,350

▼ -0.86%

10Y UST

5.01%

▲ +1.00%

VIX

16.0

▼ -9.66%

BTC

$76,275

▲ +0.52%

BTC.D

58.3%

—

F&G INDEX

Neutral

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (41 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

4.10%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
16 Sep Wed	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.3%	0.6%	1.4%
16 Sep Wed	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.6%	0.8%	1.2%
16 Sep Wed	21:00	Federal Funds Rate	USD	3.75%	4.00%	N/A
16 Sep Wed	21:00	FOMC Economic Projections	USD	N/A	N/A	N/A
16 Sep Wed	21:00	FOMC Statement	USD	N/A	N/A	N/A
17 Sep Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	47.4	31.3
17 Sep Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	207K

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	332.41	▲ +0.32%	▲ +5.41%	▲ +8.78%
MSFT Microsoft	490.30	▼ -1.37%	▼ -0.27%	▲ +2.26%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	342.87	▼ -0.61%	▲ +3.70%	▼ -0.26%
AMZN Amazon	245.96	▼ -0.99%	▼ -2.55%	▼ -5.87%
NVDA NVIDIA	213.90	▲ +0.82%	▼ -4.26%	▼ -4.83%
META Meta	673.31	▲ +0.46%	▲ +3.00%	▲ +18.34%
TSLA Tesla	358.08	▲ +0.42%	▼ -2.65%	▲ +5.53%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,349.70	▼ -0.86%	▼ -1.31%	▼ -1.60%
XAG Silver	$64.40	▲ +0.17%	▲ +0.18%	▲ +0.72%
HG Copper	$6.58	▲ +2.35%	▲ +1.79%	▲ +1.54%
BZ Brent Oil	$99.47	▼ -6.01%	▼ -7.58%	▲ +9.28%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

▲ +0.10%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.07%

Utilities

XLU

● 0.00%

Industrials

XLI

▼ -0.08%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▼ -0.48%

Real Estate

XLRE

▼ -0.60%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▼ -0.63%

Materials

XLB

▼ -0.73%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.90%

Financials

XLF

▼ -1.62%

Energy

XLE

▼ -2.88%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.74T

▲ +0.05% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$256.9B

▼ -0.04% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.62T

▼ -1.83%

BTC DOMINANCE

58.3%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$91.2B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.80T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, preventing an assessment of the yield curve’s growth signal. SMH rose 0.64% while total stablecoin market capitalization slipped 0.04% over 24 hours; semiconductor strength supports risk appetite, whereas the stablecoin contraction points to a modest cooling in crypto liquidity.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$76,275

▲ +0.52%

Support Level

$75,651

Resistance Level

$78,112

Price at $76,275 is holding above support ($75,651), with resistance at $78,112.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0976%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.074%

24h High

-0.115%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

33.48 ▼ -5.20

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.56

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0119%
ETH	▲ +0.0119%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	168.03M ▲ +7.62%
ETH	83.33M ▲ +10.47%
SOL	26.76M ▲ +5.33%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

16 Sep 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-295.9M

IBIT (BlackRock)

-144.1M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-52.7M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: On September 16, IBIT recorded $144.1 million of outflows, FBTC $52.7 million, and total spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $295.9 million, indicating near-term selling pressure. The fact that spot prices rose despite ETF outflows suggests that the rally has not yet received strong institutional-flow confirmation.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

16 Sep 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-224.1M

ETHA (BlackRock)

-110.0M

FETH (Fidelity)

-55.6M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$76,275.00	▼ -0.10%	▲ +0.52%	▼ -2.10%
ETH	$2,430.71	▼ -0.20%	▲ +1.32%	▼ -1.30%
XRP	$1.2900	▼ -0.20%	▲ +0.63%	▼ -5.90%
SOL	$99.6600	● 0.00%	▲ +2.55%	▼ -0.90%
TRX	$0.334924	● 0.00%	▲ +0.04%	▼ -1.30%
HYPE	$79.7300	▼ -0.40%	▲ +2.42%	▼ -3.70%
DOGE	$0.080765	▼ -0.60%	▲ +1.33%	▼ -5.00%
LINK	$11.1200	▼ -0.80%	▲ +2.98%	▼ -5.50%
UNI	$6.7600	▼ -2.20%	▲ +6.84%	▲ +14.60%
TON	$1.3200	▼ -0.20%	▲ +0.63%	▼ -3.60%

Impoverished by war in Iran, Afghan migrants return to Taliban rule - Reuters

AI Insight: The impact of the war in Iran on Afghan migrants highlights persistent humanitarian and geopolitical risks, but the VIX at 16.0 and a 2.1% rise in Nasdaq futures show that these risks have not yet pressured global risk pricing.

Reuters · 09:04

US allies fret over how Trump might play his Taiwan hand with Xi - Reuters

AI Insight: Uncertainty over U.S.-China policy toward Taiwan creates a geopolitical risk premium for technology and semiconductor supply chains. However, SMH’s 0.64% gain and the DXY’s 0.14% decline suggest that markets are currently pricing this risk as contained.

Reuters · 08:10

UN mission finds grounds to believe US committed war crimes in Iran, and Tehran crimes against humanity - Reuters

AI Insight: The UN mission’s allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity could raise the diplomatic costs of the conflict and increase the risk of sanctions or retaliation. Brent’s 6.01% decline and the lower VIX indicate that the news has not yet translated into broad risk aversion.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.