NOCASHFLOW

DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETIN

Global Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence

Fri, Sep 18 2026

RISK-ON Risk appetite is strong: subdued volatility, firmer equity futures and a broad crypto rally support a risk-on regime.

Global markets remain in a risk-on posture, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.37% and SMH gaining 2.76% as the VIX eased to 15.34. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.9 basis points to 4.947%, while the DXY edged higher to 100.349. In crypto, Bitcoin rose 2.40% over 24 hours to $78,124 and Ethereum gained 3.10%; total market capitalization stands at $2.69 trillion, Bitcoin dominance at 58.13% and Fear & Greed at 56, classified as Greed. Broad-based altcoin gains and a 0.08% 24-hour increase in combined stablecoin market capitalization suggest that liquidity demand remains firm. Strong retail sales released on September 16, including a 1.4% rise in core retail sales, point to resilient US consumption; no actual Fed rate decision or FOMC statement is provided for the listed September 16 event, while the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 28 with a median rate projection of 4.1%.

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS

COMMODITIES

Hormuz traffic and the durability of the oil-supply risk premium

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below its 10-day average while LNG vessels have reappeared, and oil prices fell 2% as fears of a Saudi supply disruption eased. The research question is how much geopolitical risk premium the market has removed; the key signals are whether tanker/LNG traffic normalizes and whether US inventory and production data confirm a physical supply shock.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Reuters — Hormuz traffic below 10-day average, LNG vessels reappear outside strait - Reuters — Track daily tanker and LNG passages through Hormuz, normalization signals, and potential supply disruptions relative to the 10-day average.
EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check crude, gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery utilization, imports, exports and production for physical confirmation of a supply shock.
Reuters — Oil prices fall 2% on easing fears over Saudi supply disruption - Reuters — Examine the market rationale for reduced Saudi supply-disruption fears and the supply assumption behind the price decline.

MACRO

The tension between resilient US consumption and the rate path

US retail sales beat expectations while jobless claims came in below forecast, even as the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.947% and the DXY at 100.349. The research question is whether resilient growth is consistent with the Fed’s 4.1% median rate projection and at what yield threshold renewed rate pressure would challenge equity valuations.

Primary Sources / Reports:

FRED — St. Louis Fed Economic Data — Check the trend and revisions in retail-sales series RSAFS and RSFSXMV, together with initial claims series ICSA.
Federal Reserve — FOMC Calendar & Statements — Review the September 16 FOMC statement and projections for the policy-rate path, growth and inflation assessment, and forward guidance.
US Treasury — Daily Yield Curve Rates — Monitor the 4.947% 10-year yield and whether the broader daily curve is repricing across maturities.

CRYPTO

The collision between Bitcoin spot-ETF demand and leveraged positioning

Bitcoin ETFs recorded total inflows of $159.5 million on September 17 while Ethereum ETFs saw $39.3 million of outflows; at the same time, BTC and ETH open interest rose and the Coinbase premium remained at -0.0758. The research question is whether spot demand reflects genuine accumulation or a fragile, derivatives-led rally; monitor whether the negative premium persists and whether BTC holds the 76,577.995 support or clears the 79,039.01 resistance.

Primary Sources / Reports:

Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Break down the September 17 total inflow of $159.5 million by fund, especially IBIT and FBTC, and assess persistence.
Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Track the sources of the September 17 total outflow of $39.3 million, including ETHA and other funds, and look for reversal signals.
Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Check the rise in BTC and ETH open interest, funding rates, liquidations, and leverage concentration around the 76,577.995 support and 79,039.01 resistance levels.

NASDAQ 100

29,849

▲ +1.37%

DXY

100.3490

▲ +0.13%

GOLD

$4,416

▲ +0.38%

10Y UST

4.95%

▼ -5.90%

VIX

15.3

▼ -0.65%

BTC

$78,124

▲ +2.40%

BTC.D

58.1%

—

F&G INDEX

Greed

TODAY'S CALENDAR

Next FOMC

Wed (40 days away)

Median Dot (2026)

4.10%

Date	Time (TRT)	Event	Country	Prev	Cons	Actual
16 Sep Wed	15:30	Core Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.3%	0.6%	1.4%
16 Sep Wed	15:30	Retail Sales MoM	USD	-0.6%	0.8%	1.2%
16 Sep Wed	21:00	Federal Funds Rate	USD	3.75%	4.00%	N/A
16 Sep Wed	21:00	FOMC Economic Projections	USD	N/A	N/A	N/A
16 Sep Wed	21:00	FOMC Statement	USD	N/A	N/A	N/A
17 Sep Thu	15:30	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	USD	47.4	31.3	N/A
17 Sep Thu	15:30	Unemployment Claims	USD	206K	207K	196K

EQUITIES & COMMODITIES

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
AAPL Apple	337.00	▲ +1.38%	▲ +3.19%	▲ +8.70%
MSFT Microsoft	497.75	▲ +1.52%	▲ +1.08%	▲ +3.54%
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	347.33	▲ +1.30%	▲ +4.43%	▲ +0.97%
AMZN Amazon	251.19	▲ +2.13%	▼ -0.28%	▼ -3.18%
NVDA NVIDIA	219.34	▲ +2.54%	▲ +0.45%	▼ -0.07%
META Meta	682.31	▲ +1.34%	▲ +5.89%	▲ +25.50%
TSLA Tesla	366.20	▲ +2.27%	▲ +0.73%	▲ +8.71%

Asset	Price	24H	7D	30D
XAU Gold	$4,416.40	▲ +0.38%	▲ +0.17%	▼ -2.84%
XAG Silver	$67.54	▲ +3.17%	▲ +4.63%	▲ +2.76%
HG Copper	$6.64	▲ +0.86%	▲ +2.68%	▲ +2.40%
BZ Brent Oil	$98.80	▼ -5.74%	▼ -5.55%	▲ +7.84%

S&P 500 Sectors

Technology

XLK

▲ +2.25%

Consumer Discret.

XLY

▲ +1.10%

Utilities

XLU

▲ +0.90%

Energy

XLE

▲ +0.70%

Materials

XLB

▲ +0.69%

Health Care

XLV

▲ +0.62%

Real Estate

XLRE

▲ +0.30%

Consumer Staples

XLP

▲ +0.19%

Industrials

XLI

▲ +0.18%

Financials

XLF

▼ -0.09%

Communication

XLC

▼ -0.58%

LIQUIDITY

FED BALANCE SHEET

$6.75T

▲ +0.09% w/w

STABLECOIN SUPPLY

$257.1B

▲ +0.08% 24H

CRYPTO DESK

TOTAL MARKET CAP

$2.69T

▼ -0.14%

BTC DOMINANCE

58.1%

24H TOTAL VOLUME

$95.4B

TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)

$0.82T

Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable. Combined stablecoin market capitalization rose to $257.10 billion, up 0.08% in 24 hours, while SMH gained 2.76%; together, these indicators point to supportive appetite for technology and crypto risk.

DERIVATIVES DESK

$78,124

▲ +2.40%

Support Level

$76,578

Resistance Level

$79,039

Price at $78,124 is holding above support ($76,578), with resistance at $79,039.

COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D

BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)

-0.0758%

▼ US selling pressure

-0.075%

24h High

-0.109%

24h Low

Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.

FEAR & GREED

Futures Term Structure & Positioning

Neutral

BTC Basis

—

ETH Basis

—

BTC funding is 0.00996% and ETH funding is 0.02631%, while open interest is rising in both assets, indicating stronger demand for leveraged long exposure. Futures basis data is unavailable, so the premium relative to spot cannot be confirmed.

BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)

$72,000

Deribit DVOL Index

34.54 ▲ +0.86

Options Put/Call Ratio

0.56

Funding Rates (8h Eq.)

BTC	▲ +0.0100%
ETH	▲ +0.0263%
SOL	N/A

Open Interest (OI)

BTC	174.84M ▲ +4.06%
ETH	88.59M ▲ +6.32%
SOL	32.07M ▲ +19.86%

SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS

ETF Daily Net Flows

17 Sep 2026

Moderate Inflow

Total Flow

+159.5M

IBIT (BlackRock)

+183.7M

FBTC (Fidelity)

-16.6M

Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)

Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $159.5 million on September 17; IBIT attracted $183.7 million while FBTC saw $16.6 million of outflows. Positive net flows support buying pressure, although the divergence between funds shows that institutional demand is not fully synchronized.

ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows

17 Sep 2026

Outflow

Total Flow

-39.3M

ETHA (BlackRock)

-42.9M

FETH (Fidelity)

+1.8M

CRYPTO WATCHLIST

Asset	Price	1H	24H	7D
BTC	$78,124.00	● 0.00%	▲ +2.40%	▲ +1.00%
ETH	$2,506.55	▲ +0.20%	▲ +3.10%	▲ +1.20%
XRP	$1.3300	▼ -0.20%	▲ +2.92%	▼ -1.50%
SOL	$106.38	▲ +0.20%	▲ +6.60%	▲ +6.40%
TRX	$0.336639	● 0.00%	▲ +0.52%	▼ -0.60%
HYPE	$88.9600	▲ +0.40%	▲ +11.84%	▲ +10.80%
DOGE	$0.085713	▲ +1.10%	▲ +6.09%	▲ +2.00%
LINK	$11.8800	▲ +0.50%	▲ +6.98%	▲ +3.30%
UNI	$9.1600	▲ +2.40%	▲ +33.77%	▲ +49.20%
TON	$1.3700	● 0.00%	▲ +4.13%	▲ +1.10%

As Iran war grinds on, Trump to face skeptical world leaders at UN - Reuters

AI Insight: The ongoing Iran war and Trump’s expected encounter with skeptical leaders at the UN keep geopolitical risk elevated, but the VIX at 15.34, a 1.37% rise in Nasdaq futures and Bitcoin’s 2.40% gain show that markets are currently absorbing the risk. The negative Coinbase premium (-0.0758%) suggests that strong US spot demand has not yet fully confirmed the rally.

Reuters · 04:14

China's August refined fuel exports exceed pre-Iran war levels, jet fuel exports hit record high - Reuters

AI Insight: China’s stronger refined-fuel exports and record jet-fuel shipments may improve regional supply flexibility and reduce concerns about an acute energy shortage. Brent’s 5.74% decline, alongside lower Treasury yields and a 2.76% rise in SMH, suggests that near-term inflationary risks from energy are easing.

Reuters · 03:27

Hormuz traffic below 10-day average, LNG vessels reappear outside strait - Reuters

AI Insight: Hormuz traffic remaining below its 10-day average and LNG vessels reappearing outside the strait show that operational risks to energy flows remain. However, Brent’s 5.74% decline and the subdued VIX indicate that financial markets are not pricing a lasting supply shock at this stage; rising funding and open interest are instead reinforcing risk appetite in crypto.

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This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.