|
NOCASHFLOW
DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETINGlobal Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
|
Thu, Sep 24 2026
|
NEUTRAL
Rising bond yields and volatility are offsetting strong ETF inflows and elevated crypto appetite, keeping the market outlook neutral.
Global markets are sending mixed signals, keeping the neutral regime intact. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.114%, while the VIX at 16.33 and MOVE at 95.45 point to higher rate volatility; the DXY edged up to 101.279. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.05% and SMH declined 1.00%, although a 5.20% rise in the copper-gold ratio supports a growth-sensitive interpretation. Total crypto market capitalization dropped 6.62% over 24 hours to $2.81 trillion, with BTC at $83,209; nevertheless, the Fear & Greed index remained at 71, classified as Greed, while BTC dominance stood at 59.24%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $346.9 million on September 23, supporting medium-term demand, but the sharp intraday crypto decline points to deleveraging. This week's U.S. jobless claims, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will be watched ahead of the Fed's October 28 meeting; the current 2026 dot-plot median is 4.1%.
STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS
COMMODITIES
Is Asia’s oil-import rebound a durable demand shift?
Reuters reports that Asia’s crude imports reached a post-Iran-conflict high in September but remained weak, raising questions about the quality of the energy-market rebound. The research question is whether higher imports reflect genuine end-demand strength or restocking and trade-flow changes; the key threshold is whether weekly US inventories, production, and refinery utilization confirm the same direction.
Primary Sources / Reports:
- EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Review crude and product inventories, production, imports, exports, and refinery utilization to test whether demand recovery is confirmed.
- Reuters — COMMENTARY: Asia's crude oil imports hit post-Iran conflict high in September, but remain weak - Reuters — Read the reported September import increase, the post-conflict comparison, and the article’s evidence that demand remains weak.
CRYPTO
Are ETF inflows creating real Bitcoin demand amid deleveraging?
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $346.9 million and $104.5 million respectively, while total crypto market capitalization fell 6.62% in 24 hours and BTC and ETH open interest declined 7.28% and 11.72%. The research question is whether institutional spot demand can absorb derivatives deleveraging; the signals to track are continued ETF flows, BTC’s $79,613.995 support and $85,311.83 resistance, and a renewed overshoot in funding rates.
Primary Sources / Reports:
- Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Track whether the $346.9 million total Bitcoin ETF inflow continues and how flows are distributed across funds including IBIT and FBTC.
- Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Check whether the $104.5 million total ETH ETF inflow persists, particularly across ETHA and FETH.
- Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Examine the decline in BTC and ETH open interest, funding rates, and whether deleveraging is reversing into new leveraged positioning.
|
NASDAQ 100
30,443
▼ -1.05%
|
DXY
101.2790
▲ +0.18%
|
GOLD
$4,287
▼ -0.74%
|
10Y UST
5.11%
▲ +15.10%
|
VIX
16.3
▲ +7.58%
|
BTC
$83,209
▼ -3.02%
|
BTC.D
59.2%
—
|
F&G INDEX
71
Greed
|
TODAY'S CALENDAR
|
Next FOMC
Wed (34 days away)
|
Median Dot (2026)
4.10%
|
| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep Wed | 10:15 | French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
EUR | 51.5 | 50.9 | N/A |
| 23 Sep Wed | 10:15 | French Flash Services PMI |
EUR | 48.4 | 48.3 | N/A |
| 23 Sep Wed | 10:30 | German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
EUR | 54.1 | 54.1 | N/A |
| 23 Sep Wed | 10:30 | German Flash Services PMI |
EUR | 48.5 | 49.9 | N/A |
| 24 Sep Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 196K | 201K | |
| 25 Sep Fri | 17:00 | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
USD | 47.8 | 47.4 | |
| 25 Sep Fri | 17:00 | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations |
USD | 4.6% | N/A |
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
337.02 | ▼ -0.80% | ▲ +1.39% | ▲ +8.60% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
500.59 | ▲ +0.52% | ▲ +2.10% | ▲ +2.73% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
337.83 | ▼ -3.80% | ▼ -1.47% | ▼ -2.88% | |
AMZN Amazon |
249.27 | ▼ -2.24% | ▲ +1.35% | ▼ -4.88% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
225.51 | ▼ -1.47% | ▲ +5.43% | ▲ +8.29% | |
META Meta |
744.10 | ▲ +1.02% | ▲ +10.60% | ▲ +33.21% | |
TSLA Tesla |
380.12 | ▲ +0.32% | ▲ +6.16% | ▲ +8.93% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,286.60 | ▼ -0.74% | ▼ -2.57% | ▼ -8.69% | |
XAG Silver |
$64.03 | ▼ -0.55% | ▼ -2.21% | ▼ -6.72% | |
HG Copper |
$6.75 | ▲ +1.09% | ▲ +2.50% | ▲ +0.62% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$104.88 | ▲ +1.75% | ▲ +0.06% | ▲ +18.40% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Materials
XLB
▲ +1.15%
Energy
XLE
▲ +0.96%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +0.62%
Technology
XLK
▲ +0.25%
Industrials
XLI
▲ +0.07%
Health Care
XLV
▼ -0.12%
Financials
XLF
▼ -0.47%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▼ -1.41%
Real Estate
XLRE
▼ -1.76%
Communication
XLC
▼ -1.91%
Utilities
XLU
▼ -2.24%
LIQUIDITY
FED BALANCE SHEET
$6.75T
▲ +0.09% w/w
STABLECOIN SUPPLY
$258.9B
▲ +0.11% 24H
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.81T
▼ -6.62%
BTC DOMINANCE
59.2%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$118.8B
TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)
$0.83T
Analyst Note: The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, so the yield-curve slope cannot be assessed. Combined stablecoin market capitalization rose 0.11% to $258.85 billion, while SMH fell 1.00%, showing that crypto liquidity remains available but technology and broader risk appetite are not equally strong.
DERIVATIVES DESK
|
|
Price at $83,209 is holding above support ($79,614), with resistance at $85,312.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
+0.0031%
▲ US buying pressure active
+0.003%
24h High
-0.034%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
—
ETH Basis
—
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$78,000
Deribit DVOL Index
36.58 ▼ -1.12
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.60
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
| BTC | ▲ +0.0014% |
| ETH | ▲ +0.0054% |
| SOL | ▲ +0.3334% |
Open Interest (OI)
| BTC | 182.20M ▼ -7.28% |
| ETH | 72.51M ▼ -11.72% |
| SOL | 30.28M ▼ -6.70% |
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
23 Sep 2026
Strong Inflow
Total Flow
+346.9M
IBIT (BlackRock)
+166.3M
FBTC (Fidelity)
+143.2M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
Analyst Note: IBIT received $166.3 million and FBTC $143.2 million, for total inflows of $346.9 million, signaling continued spot demand; positive flows are read as buying pressure, while negative flows indicate selling pressure. The price decline despite strong ETF demand suggests that macro pressure and leverage-related supply dominated in the short term.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
23 Sep 2026
Strong Inflow
Total Flow
+104.5M
ETHA (BlackRock)
+50.8M
FETH (Fidelity)
+41.3M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$83,209.00 | ▼ -0.37% | ▼ -3.02% | ▲ +8.78% |
ETH |
$2,636.07 | ▼ -0.89% | ▼ -3.53% | ▲ +8.12% |
XRP |
$1.4600 | ▼ -1.59% | ▼ -8.10% | ▲ +11.92% |
SOL |
$112.98 | ▼ -0.68% | ▼ -3.66% | ▲ +12.87% |
TRX |
$0.338744 | ▼ -0.39% | ▼ -1.17% | ▲ +1.21% |
HYPE |
$89.9600 | ▼ -1.75% | ▼ -5.84% | ▲ +12.62% |
DOGE |
$0.091984 | ▼ -1.26% | ▼ -7.79% | ▲ +12.89% |
LINK |
$12.1500 | ▼ -0.81% | ▼ -5.34% | ▲ +8.52% |
UNI |
$8.9000 | ▼ -2.80% | ▼ -8.50% | ▲ +26.56% |
AVAX |
$10.0700 | ▼ -0.92% | ▼ -9.23% | ▲ +32.88% |
TOP STORIES
|
CNBC · 10:00
Stephen Curry says WNBA needs to keep conversations about the league 'focused on basketball'NBA star Stephen Curry, an investor in women's sports, says the WNBA's next commissioner should keep conversations about the league "focused on basketball."
|
|
AI Insight: Stephen Curry's call for WNBA discussions to remain focused on basketball has little direct macro pricing impact for investors. Against a neutral regime and weaker Nasdaq futures, the story mainly highlights narrative and governance considerations in sports investments; its link to funding and ETF flows is limited.
|
CNBC · 09:06
New York Fed’s Williams says it's 'reasonable' to expect another rate hike by year-endJohn Williams was speaking at the London Macro Policy Forum on Thursday.
|
|
AI Insight: New York Fed President John Williams' view that another rate hike by year-end would be reasonable is a hawkish signal consistent with the 5.114% 10-year yield and rising MOVE index. The message could reinforce short-term pressure on crypto and technology shares despite strong ETF inflows.
|
Reuters · 06:55
Norway gives additional $13 million in aid to Palestinians - Reuters |
AI Insight: Norway's additional $13 million in aid to Palestinians is primarily humanitarian and has limited direct market impact. However, continued regional tensions can raise the oil risk premium, consistent with Brent at $104.88, while higher yields may weigh on risk assets.
NOCASHFLOW bulletin.
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.
© 2026 nocashflow.net. All rights reserved.