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NOCASHFLOW
DAILY FINANCIAL BULLETINGlobal Macro & Crypto Market Intelligence
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Fri, Sep 25 2026
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RISK-ON
A softer dollar and lower VIX, combined with strong crypto performance and ETF inflows, are supporting risk appetite.
The market backdrop supports a risk-on regime: VIX fell to 15.32, DXY declined 0.25% to 101.04, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.53%. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.80 basis points to 5.162%, showing that rate sensitivity remains elevated despite the constructive risk tone. In crypto, BTC rose 1.83% in 24 hours to $84,703, while ETH gained 2.92%, XRP 6.86%, and SOL 5.30%; total market capitalization stands at $2.88 trillion, BTC dominance at 58.93%, and Fear & Greed at 71, or Greed. However, total crypto market capitalization slipped 0.73% over 24 hours, while the Coinbase premium at -0.029% indicates that strong US spot demand has not yet been fully confirmed. Today’s calendar includes revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations; with no CPI, PPI, PCE, or FOMC decision released this week, the key macro risks are elevated Treasury yields and the 4.1% median rate path ahead of the October 28 FOMC meeting.
STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS
COMMODITIES
How much can a non-Hormuz supply risk disrupt oil pricing?
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia raise geopolitical supply risk, while hopes for a US-Iran truce are pushing oil lower. The research question is whether diplomatic expectations can continue to outweigh the risk of a physical supply disruption; the concrete signals are any impact on shipments and oil infrastructure, alongside weekly inventory and production data.
Primary Sources / Reports:
- Reuters — Allies unite behind Saudi Arabia as Houthis step up attacks - Reuters — Examine the targets of the attacks, allied military and diplomatic responses, and direct risks to energy infrastructure.
- Reuters — Oil slides as US-Iran truce hopes outweigh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia - Reuters — Track how much the oil decline depends on truce expectations and how the market is pricing the geopolitical risk premium.
- EIA — Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Check crude and product inventories, refinery utilization, production, and import-export flows for evidence of a supply shock.
LIQUIDITY
Is crypto strength driven by real spot demand or leverage and liquidity?
Total crypto market capitalization declined over 24 hours even as Bitcoin ETFs recorded $190.7 million and Ethereum ETFs $66.1 million of inflows; Coinbase premium remains negative, BTC funding is negative, and Bitcoin open interest is rising. The research question is how much institutional spot demand offsets derivatives positioning and fragile liquidity; the key levels are the $81,345.15 BTC support and $86,056.83 resistance, together with the persistence of ETF inflows.
Primary Sources / Reports:
- Farside — Bitcoin ETF Flows (All Data) — Check the distribution of the $190.7 million total inflow on September 24 and whether flows persist in subsequent sessions.
- Farside — Ethereum ETF Flows — Examine the fund-level composition of the $66.1 million total Ethereum inflow and the breadth of demand relative to Bitcoin.
- Coinglass — Derivatives Data — Monitor BTC and ETH funding rates and open-interest changes to test whether spot ETF demand is being reinforced by leverage.
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NASDAQ 100
30,930
▲ +0.53%
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DXY
101.0400
▼ -0.25%
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GOLD
$4,344
▲ +1.08%
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10Y UST
5.16%
▲ +4.80%
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VIX
15.3
▼ -2.23%
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BTC
$84,703
▲ +1.83%
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BTC.D
58.9%
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F&G INDEX
71
Greed
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TODAY'S CALENDAR
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Next FOMC
Wed (33 days away)
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Median Dot (2026)
4.10%
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| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep Wed | 10:15 | French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
EUR | 51.5 | 50.9 | N/A |
| 23 Sep Wed | 10:15 | French Flash Services PMI |
EUR | 48.4 | 48.3 | N/A |
| 23 Sep Wed | 10:30 | German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
EUR | 54.1 | 54.1 | N/A |
| 23 Sep Wed | 10:30 | German Flash Services PMI |
EUR | 48.5 | 49.9 | N/A |
| 24 Sep Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 196K | 201K | 197K |
| 25 Sep Fri | 17:00 | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
USD | 47.8 | 47.4 | |
| 25 Sep Fri | 17:00 | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations |
USD | 4.6% | N/A |
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
335.92 | ▼ -0.33% | ▼ -0.32% | ▲ +8.40% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
497.93 | ▼ -0.53% | ▲ +0.04% | ▲ +1.26% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
342.36 | ▲ +1.34% | ▼ -1.43% | ▼ -1.26% | |
AMZN Amazon |
249.38 | ▲ +0.04% | ▼ -0.72% | ▼ -4.47% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
224.58 | ▼ -0.41% | ▲ +2.39% | ▲ +5.53% | |
META Meta |
777.59 | ▲ +4.50% | ▲ +14.05% | ▲ +36.51% | |
TSLA Tesla |
377.94 | ▼ -0.57% | ▲ +3.21% | ▲ +7.91% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,344.40 | ▲ +1.08% | ▼ -1.82% | ▼ -6.64% | |
XAG Silver |
$65.43 | ▲ +3.12% | ▼ -1.68% | ▼ -3.76% | |
HG Copper |
$6.79 | ▲ +1.05% | ▲ +2.63% | ▲ +2.95% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$98.87 | ▼ -7.25% | ▼ -4.81% | ▲ +12.56% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Communication
XLC
▲ +1.27%
Health Care
XLV
▲ +0.63%
Energy
XLE
▲ +0.37%
Financials
XLF
▼ -0.02%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▼ -0.30%
Technology
XLK
▼ -0.32%
Real Estate
XLRE
▼ -0.45%
Industrials
XLI
▼ -0.75%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▼ -0.89%
Utilities
XLU
▼ -0.98%
Materials
XLB
▼ -1.19%
LIQUIDITY
FED BALANCE SHEET
$6.75T
▲ +0.02% w/w
STABLECOIN SUPPLY
$259.2B
▲ +0.13% 24H
CRYPTO DESK
TOTAL MARKET CAP
$2.88T
▼ -0.73%
BTC DOMINANCE
58.9%
24H TOTAL VOLUME
$102.1B
TOTAL3 (EX BTC & ETH)
$0.85T
Analyst Note: Combined stablecoin market capitalization reached $259.17 billion, up 0.13% in 24 hours, indicating a modest expansion in available crypto liquidity. SMH fell 0.15%, while the copper/gold ratio rose 4.53%; despite slight semiconductor weakness, the commodity ratio supports a constructive growth and risk-appetite signal. The 2Y-10Y spread is unavailable, so the yield-curve signal cannot be assessed.
DERIVATIVES DESK
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Price at $84,703 is holding above support ($81,345), with resistance at $86,057.
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 7D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (1H Bars)
-0.0290%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.003%
24h High
-0.039%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure & Positioning
Neutral
BTC Basis
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ETH Basis
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BTC funding is mildly negative at -0.0043%, while ETH funding is positive at 0.0122%; this divergence suggests limited crowded long exposure in BTC but more visible long demand in ETH. Futures basis data is unavailable, so the premium direction cannot be confirmed; BTC open interest rising 2.97% over 24 hours warrants monitoring for leverage buildup.
BTC Max Pain (Quarterly)
$75,000
Deribit DVOL Index
34.78 ▼ -0.96
Options Put/Call Ratio
0.52
Funding Rates (8h Eq.)
| BTC | ▼ -0.0043% |
| ETH | ▲ +0.0122% |
| SOL | N/A |
Open Interest (OI)
| BTC | 187.61M ▲ +2.97% |
| ETH | 71.91M ▼ -0.83% |
| SOL | 33.01M ▲ +9.01% |
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Daily Net Flows
24 Sep 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+190.7M
IBIT (BlackRock)
+162.6M
FBTC (Fidelity)
+12.9M
Spot ETF Flows History (Last 10 Days)
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total inflows of $190.7 million on September 24, including $162.6 million for IBIT and $12.9 million for FBTC. Positive flows represent buying pressure and institutional demand; the broader inflow streak across the past nine sessions reinforces the risk-on signal, although the slower pace versus prior sessions should be monitored.
ETH Spot ETF Daily Net Flows
24 Sep 2026
Moderate Inflow
Total Flow
+66.1M
ETHA (BlackRock)
+26.8M
FETH (Fidelity)
+21.5M
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$84,703.00 | ▲ +0.21% | ▲ +1.83% | ▲ +8.19% |
ETH |
$2,711.79 | ▲ +0.52% | ▲ +2.92% | ▲ +8.06% |
XRP |
$1.5500 | ▲ +0.88% | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +16.42% |
SOL |
$118.78 | ▲ +0.84% | ▲ +5.30% | ▲ +11.41% |
TRX |
$0.337166 | ▼ -0.27% | ▼ -0.47% | ▲ +0.22% |
HYPE |
$93.8200 | ▲ +0.03% | ▲ +4.30% | ▲ +5.60% |
DOGE |
$0.096662 | ▲ +0.49% | ▲ +5.22% | ▲ +14.05% |
LINK |
$13.9100 | ▲ +1.80% | ▲ +14.74% | ▲ +19.65% |
UNI |
$9.3600 | ▲ +0.50% | ▲ +5.46% | ▲ +4.97% |
AVAX |
$10.4100 | ▲ +0.66% | ▲ +3.29% | ▲ +31.65% |
TOP STORIES
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CNBC · 09:58
Pharma stock soars 150% on injectables deal with Wegovy maker NovoShares in Swedish microcap stock Nanexa more than doubled after the drug-delivery group revealed a licensing deal with European pharma giant Novo Nordisk.
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Reuters · 05:03
How Trump's diplomatic week exposed the limits of his power - Reuters |
AI Insight: The diplomatic week exposing limits on Trump’s power could increase policy uncertainty, but the VIX at 15.32 and DXY down 0.25% show that investors are so far pricing the geopolitical risk in a controlled manner.
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Reuters · 02:33
Rupee soothed by intervention, surge in forward premiums tipped to cool - Reuters |
AI Insight: Intervention supporting the rupee and expectations that elevated forward premiums will cool highlight the importance of central-bank stabilization for emerging-market currencies; the weaker DXY supports global risk appetite, but the 10-year yield at 5.162% shows that pressure on local currencies has not disappeared.
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