Fear & Greed index at 18 shows 'extreme fear' signal. Coinbase premium at -0.4% reflects US investor selling pressure. VIX decline to 17.6 shows crypto volatility diverging from traditional markets.
THEME 2: 💧 FOMC ANTICIPATION
Markets cautious ahead of June 17 Fed meeting. Rates expected to hold at 3.75% but economic projections and Powell's remarks will shape liquidity outlook. Market positioning defensive pre-meeting.
THEME 3: 🪙 GOLD RALLY
Gold surged 3.6% daily to $4,238 level. DXY decline to 99.75 and geopolitical uncertainties boost safe haven demand. BTC-Gold correlation remains at 0.30 level.
NEXT WEEK
Date
Time
Event
Country
Prev
Cons
Actual
17 Jun Wed
8:30 AM
Core Retail Sales MoM
USD
0.7%
0.5%
—
17 Jun Wed
8:30 AM
Retail Sales MoM
USD
0.5%
0.5%
—
17 Jun Wed
2:00 PM
Federal Funds Rate
USD
3.75%
3.75%
—
17 Jun Wed
2:00 PM
FOMC Economic Projections
USD
—
—
—
17 Jun Wed
2:00 PM
FOMC Statement
USD
—
—
—
18 Jun Thu
8:30 AM
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD
-0.4
11.4
—
18 Jun Thu
8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims
USD
229K
225K
—
Weekly Outlook & Strategy: FOMC decision and Powell press conference critical. Retail sales data and Philly Fed index important for macro momentum. Technically, $61.4K support level key.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly)
Analyst Note: Fed Net Liquidity rose 0.21% weekly to $6.73T, but monthly decline of -0.05% continues. Despite liquidity increase, market response remains muted.
Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly)
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending 2026-05-31
Weekly Total
-1415.6M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-966.3M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-169.1M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
Analyst Note: Recent ETF flows at $85.9M positive, with IBIT $57.7M, FBTC $18M showing weak institutional buying pressure. Positive flows not translating to price performance.
WINNERS & LOSERS OF THE WEEK
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset
Price
1H
24H
7D
BTC
$63,824.00
▼ -0.48%
▼ -0.37%
▲ +2.88%
ETH
$1,662.89
▼ -0.20%
▼ -0.83%
▲ +2.10%
XRP
$1.1400
▼ -0.16%
▼ -0.99%
▲ +0.29%
SOL
$67.5600
▼ -0.06%
▼ -0.89%
▲ +4.04%
TRX
$0.318563
▲ +0.06%
▲ +0.45%
▼ -2.87%
DOGE
$0.086401
▼ -0.16%
▼ -1.48%
▲ +2.15%
HYPE
$60.2200
▲ +0.18%
▲ +1.08%
▲ +3.44%
LINK
$7.8400
▼ -0.27%
▼ -2.19%
▲ +1.26%
AVAX
$6.5100
▼ -0.49%
▼ -3.14%
▼ -2.71%
SUI
$0.751376
▲ +0.11%
▼ -2.29%
▲ +0.82%
TON
$1.7200
▲ +0.05%
▼ -0.78%
▲ +1.79%
UNI
$2.4900
▼ -0.24%
▼ -2.37%
▼ -1.47%
AAVE
$65.6400
▼ -0.20%
▼ -1.20%
▲ +4.23%
PEPE
$0.000003
▼ -0.46%
▼ -2.50%
▲ +0.23%
RENDER
$1.7500
▲ +0.42%
▼ -1.97%
▲ +4.57%
JUP
$0.168720
▲ +0.09%
▼ -2.47%
▲ +8.82%
CRYPTO SECTOR ROTATION
Sector Category
7D Basket Avg Return
Layer 1 Protocols
▲ +1.21%
DeFi Protocols
▲ +1.34%
AI & Decentralized Compute
▲ +4.57%
Meme Tokens
▲ +1.19%
Analyst Note: Sector rotation shows Materials (1.87%) and Financials (1.36%) leading while Communication (-0.42%) and Healthcare (-0.18%) lag. Cyclical tilt evident.
BITCOIN CYCLE PANEL
Mayer Multiple
0.821
Spot / 200d SMA
200WMA Distance
+2.8%
WMA: $62,022
Drawdown from ATH
-48.9%
ATH: $124,753
BTC Spot Price
$63,727
Real-time
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024-2026)
* Current month is marked.
CORRELATION MATRIX
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
Analyst Note: BTC-NDX correlation rose to 0.372 while BTC-DXY negative correlation strong at -0.424. Gold correlation at 0.303 shows reasonable positive linkage.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.0041%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.004%
24h High
-0.179%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.