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NOCASHFLOW
WEEKLY DEEP DIVEStrategic Liquidity, Macro Themes & Crypto Rotation
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Sun, Jun 28 2026
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THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1: 🌍 EXTREME FEAR
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 18, deep in 'Extreme Fear' territory. BTC shed 7% on the week to $59,584, now 52.26% below its all-time high. Buyer conviction has effectively evaporated across the crypto market.
THEME 2: 💧 ETF HEMORRHAGE
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a massive $1.78 billion net outflow this week, with IBIT alone accounting for $1.3 billion in redemptions. This marks the largest weekly outflow in recent months and confirms that institutional selling pressure is accelerating.
THEME 3: 🪙 INFLATION RETURNS
US CPI reached 4.27% in May 2026, the highest reading in recent history, while core PCE stands at 3.41%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Next week's non-farm payrolls data will be a critical catalyst for repricing Fed rate-cut expectations.
NEXT WEEK
| Date | Time | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun Tue | 2:29 AM | German Prelim CPI MoM |
EUR | -0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 30 Jun Tue | 10:00 AM | CB Consumer Confidence |
USD | 93.1 | 94.2 | — |
| 30 Jun Tue | 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings |
USD | 7.62M | 7.28M | — |
| 01 Jul Wed | 5:00 AM | Core CPI Flash Estimate YoY |
EUR | 2.5% | 2.5% | — |
| 01 Jul Wed | 5:00 AM | CPI Flash Estimate YoY |
EUR | 3.2% | 3.0% | — |
| 01 Jul Wed | 8:15 AM | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
USD | 122K | 118K | — |
| 01 Jul Wed | 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
USD | 54.0 | 53.7 | — |
| 02 Jul Thu | 8:30 AM | Average Hourly Earnings MoM |
USD | 0.3% | 0.3% | — |
| 02 Jul Thu | 8:30 AM | Non-Farm Employment Change |
USD | 172K | 114K | — |
| 02 Jul Thu | 8:30 AM | Unemployment Rate |
USD | 4.3% | 4.3% | — |
| 02 Jul Thu | 8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 215K | 220K | — |
Weekly Outlook & Strategy: The key risk event next week is the July 2 Non-Farm Payrolls release (consensus: 114K) alongside the unemployment rate (consensus: 4.3%). A strong print would reinforce the 'higher for longer' Fed narrative and pressure risk assets further, while a weak reading could trigger a short-term relief rally.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly)
Analyst Note: The Fed balance sheet stands at $6.74T, contracting by a modest $10B on the week. While M2 money supply reached $23.05T with a monthly gain of 1.09%, Fed net liquidity at $5.81T has been trending lower in recent weeks, creating an unfavorable macro backdrop for risk assets.
MACRO SCOREBOARD
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY - 5-Year)
Analyst Note: US CPI at 4.27% and core PCE at 3.41% in May 2026 both remain significantly above the Fed's 2% target, with inflation re-accelerating after a brief disinflationary period. This 'higher for longer' scenario continues to suppress rate-cut expectations and weigh on risk appetite.
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
283.78 | ▲ +3.14% | ▼ -4.78% | ▼ -8.71% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
372.97 | ▲ +5.71% | ▼ -1.69% | ▼ -9.62% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
337.39 | ▼ -1.84% | ▼ -8.33% | ▼ -13.18% | |
AMZN Amazon |
232.69 | ▲ +2.50% | ▼ -4.79% | ▼ -14.41% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
192.53 | ▼ -1.64% | ▼ -8.62% | ▼ -9.33% | |
META Meta |
550.25 | ▲ +1.36% | ▼ -4.67% | ▼ -13.30% | |
TSLA Tesla |
379.71 | ▲ +1.22% | ▼ -5.19% | ▼ -13.77% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,096.30 | ▲ +1.63% | ▼ -3.03% | ▼ -7.90% | |
XAG Silver |
$59.67 | ▲ +2.27% | ▼ -9.93% | ▼ -20.01% | |
HG Copper |
$6.21 | ▲ +2.25% | ▼ -2.63% | ▼ -1.55% | |
NG Natural Gas |
$3.28 | ▼ -1.91% | ▲ +1.42% | ▲ +7.86% | |
CC Cocoa |
$5,208.00 | ▲ +0.95% | ▲ +25.71% | ▲ +25.80% | |
KC Coffee |
$260.90 | ▼ -9.66% | ▼ -5.16% | ▼ -3.32% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$72.60 | ▼ -3.53% | ▼ -9.08% | ▼ -23.00% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Health Care
XLV
▲ +3.03%
Real Estate
XLRE
▲ +1.46%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +0.92%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▲ +0.90%
Utilities
XLU
▲ +0.76%
Communication
XLC
▲ +0.57%
Financials
XLF
▲ +0.22%
Energy
XLE
▼ -0.46%
Materials
XLB
▼ -0.46%
Industrials
XLI
▼ -1.59%
Technology
XLK
▼ -1.87%
BTC vs NDX vs GOLD (YTD Performance)
BTC (YTD: -32.9%)
NDX (YTD: +15.5%)
GOLD (YTD: -5.1%)
TURKEY DESK
CRYPTO DESK
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly)
Analyst Note: Total stablecoin supply edged lower to $311.4B; USDT holds a 59.39% market share while USDC accounts for 23.72%. The flat-to-declining stablecoin supply signals that fresh fiat liquidity is not entering the crypto ecosystem, reinforcing the bearish demand backdrop.
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending 2026-06-28
Weekly Total
-1787.3M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-1303.5M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-314.9M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of $1.78B for the week ending June 26, 2026, with IBIT seeing $1.3B and FBTC $314.9M in redemptions. Negative ETF flows represent institutional selling pressure; three consecutive weeks of outflows is a strong signal that large players are actively reducing exposure.
WINNERS & LOSERS OF THE WEEK
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$59,584.00 | ▼ -0.24% | ▼ -1.51% | ▼ -7.01% |
ETH |
$1,568.37 | ▼ -0.47% | ▼ -1.59% | ▼ -9.28% |
XRP |
$1.0430 | ▼ -0.67% | ▼ -1.73% | ▼ -9.20% |
SOL |
$71.4600 | ▼ -0.42% | ▼ -0.95% | ▼ -3.90% |
TRX |
$0.323042 | ▼ -0.12% | ▲ +0.78% | ▼ -1.05% |
DOGE |
$0.072932 | ▼ -0.56% | ▼ -3.65% | ▼ -12.48% |
HYPE |
$62.6700 | ▼ -0.31% | ▼ -1.04% | ▼ -7.99% |
LINK |
$7.2300 | ▼ -0.72% | ▼ -2.05% | ▼ -8.89% |
AVAX |
$6.3000 | ▼ -0.03% | ▼ -3.82% | ▲ +0.45% |
SUI |
$0.680561 | ▼ -0.47% | ▼ -3.33% | ▼ -4.05% |
TON |
$1.5500 | ▼ -0.32% | ▼ -1.26% | ▼ -9.40% |
UNI |
$2.9000 | ▼ -1.21% | ▼ -3.40% | ▼ -6.83% |
AAVE |
$88.3800 | ▼ -0.39% | ▼ -7.13% | ▲ +18.77% |
PEPE |
$0.000002 | ▼ -0.47% | ▼ -1.86% | ▼ -16.17% |
RENDER |
$1.5300 | ▼ -0.65% | ▼ -3.20% | ▼ -9.49% |
JUP |
$0.210525 | ▼ -1.19% | ▼ -8.59% | ▼ -6.07% |
CRYPTO SECTOR ROTATION
BITCOIN CYCLE PANEL
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024-2026)
* Current month is marked.
CORRELATION MATRIX
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
Analyst Note: The BTC-NDX correlation stands at a moderate 0.34, while BTC-DXY is a strong -0.46. With DXY hovering at 101.36, dollar stability is providing a marginal buffer for BTC; however, gold's strong negative correlation with DXY (-0.585) positions it as a more defensive store-of-value in the current environment compared to Bitcoin.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.1160%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.036%
24h High
-0.158%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
| BTC Futures Basis | 0.00% |
| ETH Futures Basis | 0.00% |
7D Avg Funding Rates
| BTC 7D Avg | ▼ -0.01% |
| ETH 7D Avg | ▲ +0.01% |
Open Interest w/w Change
| BTC OI Change | 129.60M |
| ETH OI Change | 43.40M |
Analyst Note: BTC funding rates have turned negative at -0.008, indicating that leveraged short positions dominate the derivatives market. While this signals bearish consensus, persistently negative funding can set the stage for a short squeeze rally; however, the underlying macro trend remains firmly bearish.
TOP STORIES
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CNBC · 15:13
America can't get enough of protein. The dairy industry can't keep upDemand for whey protein is off the charts as American diet trends change and GLP-1s boom, and the dairy industry is struggling to produce enough.
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AI Insight: The structural surge in protein demand driven by GLP-1 drug adoption straining the dairy industry introduces an additional upside risk to food inflation, compounding an already elevated US CPI of 4.27% and complicating the Fed's path to its 2% target.
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Reuters · 14:59
Iraq detains politicians, officials in anti-corruption crackdown - ReutersIraq detains politicians, officials in anti-corruption crackdown Reuters
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AI Insight: Iraq's detention of politicians and officials in an anti-corruption sweep deepens regional political instability; heightened Middle Eastern geopolitical risk sustains supply-side concerns in oil markets, which could feed through to commodity prices and broader inflation.
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CNBC · 14:05
Some renters say homeownership isn't part of their American Dream: Renting is 'really freeing for me'Some no longer see renting as a temporary stop on the path to homeownership but rather a long-term lifestyle choice, reflecting a shift in the American Dream.
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AI Insight: The growing preference among Americans for long-term renting over homeownership signals a structural demand shift in housing; while this may cap certain real estate valuations, it also points to persistent rental inflation, which remains a sticky component of core CPI.
Analyst Note: Escalating US-Iran tensions are sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in energy markets, while Iraq's anti-corruption crackdown adds to regional political uncertainty. Together, these developments compound the existing RISK_OFF environment and could further dampen global risk appetite heading into the new week.
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