|
NOCASHFLOW
WEEKLY DEEP DIVEStrategic Liquidity, Macro Themes & Crypto Rotation
|
Sun, Jul 5 2026
|
NEUTRAL
Fear index at 23, ETF outflows persisting, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.49% leave markets searching for direction.
The week's most critical macro development was the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.49%, with the 2s10s spread widening to 31 basis points, signaling a re-acceleration of inflation expectations. Crypto markets staged a strong weekly recovery, with ETH gaining 13%, SOL 13.5%, and TON 14.4%, while BTC attempts to hold $62,648. Yet the Fear & Greed Index remains in Extreme Fear (23) territory, and BTC spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $526 million this week. The most critical catalyst for the coming week will be the FOMC meeting minutes on July 8, which will shape the market's outlook on the Fed's rate path.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · BOND PRESSURE
The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.49%, rising 22 basis points on a weekly basis. With the real 10-year yield at 2.25% and the breakeven inflation rate at 2.23%, the Fed's rate-cut timeline is being pushed back, creating valuation pressure on risk assets.
THEME 2 · ALTCOIN RENAISSANCE
ETH gained 13%, SOL 13.5%, TON 14.4%, and JUP 15.1% on a weekly basis, significantly outperforming BTC's 4.8% gain. This rotation suggests liquidity is shifting into the altcoin ecosystem despite BTC dominance holding at 55.6%; however, a persistently negative Coinbase premium indicates US institutional demand has not yet strengthened.
THEME 3 · ETF OUTFLOW WAVE
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $526.1 million this week, with IBIT shedding $772.6 million while FBTC attracted $100.9 million. The outflow trend that has persisted since early June reflects institutional caution, reinforced by Strategy cutting its weekly BTC purchases by two-thirds as STRC preferred shares trade below par.
NEXT WEEK
|
Next FOMC
Wed (24 days away)
|
Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
|
| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jul Mon | 17:00 | ISM Services PMI |
USD | 54.5 | 54.2 | — |
| 08 Jul Wed | 21:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes |
USD | — | — | — |
| 09 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 215K | 218K | — |
Weekly Outlook & Strategy: Key events next week include ISM Services PMI on July 6 (forecast: 54.2), FOMC meeting minutes on July 8, and unemployment claims on July 9. The FOMC minutes will be the decisive catalyst for both crypto and equity markets as they clarify the Fed's stance in the face of re-accelerating inflation.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly)
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly)
-0.504 (-0.001 w/w)
Above 0 = tighter-than-average conditions, below 0 = looser.
Analyst Note: The Fed balance sheet stands at $6.72 trillion, contracting $0.16 trillion on a weekly basis, while M2 money supply reached $23.05 trillion with a monthly increase of 1.09%. While M2 expansion is constructive for crypto over the long term, the Fed balance sheet contraction keeps short-term liquidity pressure alive.
MACRO SCOREBOARD
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year)
Analyst Note: The latest data point, May 2026 CPI at 4.27%, marks the highest level in recent months while core PCE rose to 3.41%. This re-accelerating inflation path significantly reduces the probability of a rate cut at the July 29 FOMC meeting.
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
308.63 | ▲ +4.84% | ▲ +12.17% | ▼ -2.08% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
390.49 | ▲ +1.62% | ▲ +10.67% | ▼ -11.52% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
359.91 | ▼ -0.36% | ▲ +4.71% | ▼ -0.48% | |
AMZN Amazon |
242.67 | ▲ +0.40% | ▲ +6.90% | ▼ -5.40% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
194.83 | ▼ -1.39% | ▼ -0.46% | ▼ -12.46% | |
META Meta |
582.90 | ▼ -4.90% | ▲ +7.37% | ▼ -2.37% | |
TSLA Tesla |
393.45 | ▼ -7.49% | ▲ +4.89% | ▼ -7.15% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,125.70 | ▲ +0.32% | ▲ +1.15% | ▼ -7.01% | |
XAG Silver |
$61.06 | ▲ +0.69% | ▲ +3.12% | ▼ -16.89% | |
HG Copper |
$6.17 | ▲ +0.89% | ▲ +0.45% | ▼ -4.81% | |
NG Natural Gas |
$3.20 | ▲ +0.00% | ▼ -1.08% | ▼ -0.56% | |
CC Cocoa |
$5,142.00 | ▲ +2.72% | ▼ -0.33% | ▲ +25.17% | |
KC Coffee |
$286.30 | ▼ -11.72% | ▼ -0.87% | ▲ +10.46% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$71.80 | ▲ +0.00% | ▼ -0.26% | ▼ -26.59% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Health Care
XLV
▲ +2.63%
Utilities
XLU
▲ +2.21%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +2.03%
Materials
XLB
▲ +1.94%
Financials
XLF
▲ +1.53%
Real Estate
XLRE
▲ +1.13%
Energy
XLE
▲ +0.78%
Industrials
XLI
▲ +0.30%
Communication
XLC
▼ -0.13%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▼ -0.82%
Technology
XLK
▼ -2.71%
BTC vs NDX vs GOLD (YTD Performance)
BTC (YTD: -29.4%)
NDX (YTD: +16.4%)
GOLD (YTD: -4.4%)
TURKEY DESK
CRYPTO DESK
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly)
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-07-05
Weekly Total
-526.1M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-772.6M
FBTC (Fidelity)
+100.9M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows:
-13.7M · ETHA +44.6M · FETH +4.5M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$51.8B
Analyst Note: BTC spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $526.1 million this week, with IBIT losing $772.6 million while FBTC gained $100.9 million. Negative ETF flows indicate continued institutional selling pressure, with the cumulative total retreating to $51.8 billion.
WINNERS & LOSERS OF THE WEEK
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$62,648.00 | ▲ +0.02% | ▼ -0.36% | ▲ +4.77% |
ETH |
$1,774.98 | ▲ +0.18% | ▼ -0.47% | ▲ +12.98% |
XRP |
$1.1300 | ▼ -0.03% | ▼ -3.08% | ▲ +8.59% |
SOL |
$81.0800 | ▼ -0.08% | ▼ -1.20% | ▲ +13.49% |
TRX |
$0.327943 | ▼ -0.35% | ▲ +0.62% | ▲ +1.49% |
HYPE |
$69.2000 | ▼ -0.16% | ▼ -1.47% | ▲ +10.01% |
DOGE |
$0.077258 | ▲ +0.30% | ▼ -1.46% | ▲ +5.20% |
LINK |
$7.9700 | ▲ +0.20% | ▼ -1.39% | ▲ +10.18% |
TON |
$1.7700 | ▼ -0.48% | ▼ -1.48% | ▲ +14.39% |
SUI |
$0.755683 | ▲ +0.40% | ▼ -1.73% | ▲ +10.34% |
HYPE RADAR
CoinGecko search trends — the coins the market is talking about this week. High hype ≠ buy signal; low-cap coins are extremely volatile.
CRYPTO SECTOR ROTATION
BITCOIN CYCLE PANEL
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
Analyst Note: Bitcoin is trading just below its 200-week moving average ($62,654) at $62,645, with the Mayer Multiple at 0.839 historically signaling a value zone. Although the drawdown from the ATH ($124,753) stands at -49.78%, the 200WMA support serves as a critical floor.
CORRELATION MATRIX
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
Analyst Note: The BTC-DXY correlation remains a strong negative at -0.404, while BTC-Gold correlation holds positive at 0.336. The DXY's weekly decline of -0.52% should theoretically be supportive for BTC, but the continued bearish trend on the 4-hour chart suggests this correlation has lost its short-term effectiveness.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.0818%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.043%
24h High
-0.173%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
| BTC Futures Basis | 0.00% |
| ETH Futures Basis | 0.00% |
7D Avg Funding Rates
| BTC 7D Avg | ▲ +0.0109% |
| ETH 7D Avg | ▲ +0.0241% |
Open Interest w/w Change
| BTC OI Change | 120.44M |
| ETH OI Change | 43.65M |
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
-6.37%
Call IV - Put IV (31JUL26)
Large Options Expirations
| Expiry Date | Total Notional | Max Pain Strike |
|---|---|---|
| 6JUL26 (06 Jul 2026) | $221.1M | $61,500 |
| 7JUL26 (07 Jul 2026) | $353.1M | $62,500 |
Analyst Note: BTC funding rate at 0.011% and ETH at 0.024% remain positive and moderate, indicating no excessive leveraged long buildup. In the BTC options market, the 25-delta risk reversal stands at -6.37, reflecting a clear put bias, while the max pain level of $72,000 sits approximately 15% above the current spot price.
TOP STORIES
|
Reuters · 15:40
Three sons of Iran's slain leader Khamenei appear at funeral, not his successor - Reuters |
AI Insight: The leadership uncertainty in Iran following Khamenei raises Middle East geopolitical risk and emerges as a factor that could pressure oil supply and regional stability; historically, such geopolitical shocks have created short-term safe-haven demand for gold and Bitcoin, though the current Extreme Fear backdrop may dampen that response.
|
CNBC · 14:42
World Cup fans spent anywhere from $2,500 to $150,000 to see matches—they say it was worth itSoccer fans heading to World Cup matches at MetLife Stadium shared how much they expected to spend with CNBC Make It outside New York's Penn Station.
|
|
|
CNBC · 14:01
Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market this weekDelta is the biggest earnings report of the week.
|
|
Analyst Note: The week's geopolitical developments—uncertainty in Iran's leadership and Macron's visit to Syria—are factors that can traditionally generate safe-haven demand for gold and Bitcoin. However, in the current Extreme Fear environment, this effect is expected to remain limited.
NOCASHFLOW bulletin.
Read on Web · Language · Unsubscribe
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All investment decisions carry risks.
© 2026 nocashflow.net. All rights reserved.