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NOCASHFLOW
WEEKLY DEEP DIVEStrategic Liquidity, Macro Themes & Crypto Rotation
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Sun, Jul 12 2026
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NEUTRAL
With the Fear & Greed index at 26, BTC consolidates below resistance as markets search for direction.
Crypto markets traded cautiously this week as BTC consolidated near $64,100 in a tight range. DeFi emerged as the standout sector (UNI +16%, AAVE +11%), while Layer 1 protocols and meme tokens remained under pressure. On the ETF front, IBIT recorded +$291.9 million in weekly inflows, beginning to break the months-long outflow trend — a meaningful signal that institutional interest may be rekindling. The week's most critical catalyst will be Tuesday's U.S. June CPI print: a consensus reading of 3.8% YoY could trigger a repricing of the Fed's rate-cut timeline.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · DeFi RENAISSANCE
UNI surging +16.3% and AAVE climbing +11.1% on a weekly basis put DeFi firmly in the spotlight as crypto's strongest sector. Congress preparing to ban CBDC strengthens the competitive advantage of private stablecoin ecosystems, potentially accelerating liquidity flows into DeFi protocols. In this environment, DeFi stands out as the most fertile ground for renewed institutional capital allocation.
THEME 2 · ETF INFLECTION
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately +$197 million in net weekly inflows, snapping the outflow trend that had persisted since May; IBIT alone attracted +$291.9 million. This shift is contributing to BTC support near $64,000. However, with cumulative ETF positioning still around $52 billion, the sustainability of inflows will be tested by next week's macro data.
THEME 3 · INFLATION TEST
U.S. May CPI had surged to 4.27% YoY, the highest in years; the June consensus expects a pullback to 3.8%. A below-consensus print could bring forward the Fed's rate-cut timeline and revive risk appetite. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.57% reflects lingering market concerns about inflation stickiness.
NEXT WEEK
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Next FOMC
Wed (17 days away)
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Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
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| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul Tue | 15:30 | Core CPI MoM |
USD | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
| 14 Jul Tue | 15:30 | Core CPI YoY |
USD | 2.9% | 2.8% | — |
| 14 Jul Tue | 15:30 | CPI MoM |
USD | 0.5% | -0.1% | — |
| 14 Jul Tue | 15:30 | CPI YoY |
USD | 4.2% | 3.8% | — |
| 15 Jul Wed | 15:30 | Core PPI MoM |
USD | 0.4% | 0.3% | — |
| 15 Jul Wed | 15:30 | PPI MoM |
USD | 1.1% | 0.0% | — |
| 16 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Core Retail Sales MoM |
USD | 0.8% | -0.1% | — |
| 16 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
USD | 10.3 | 12.1 | — |
| 16 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Retail Sales MoM |
USD | 0.9% | 0.3% | — |
| 16 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 215K | 215K | — |
| 17 Jul Fri | 17:00 | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
USD | 48.9 | 51.4 | — |
| 17 Jul Fri | 17:00 | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations |
USD | 4.6% | — | — |
Weekly Outlook & Strategy: Tuesday's U.S. June CPI (consensus: 3.8% YoY) and Wednesday's PPI are the week's most critical macro events. BTC holds $60,982 as key support with $81,044 as the primary resistance; a CPI surprise could be the catalyst to break this range. The FOMC meeting on July 29 keeps markets data-dependent until then.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly)
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly)
-0.515 (-0.010 w/w)
Above 0 = tighter-than-average conditions, below 0 = looser.
Analyst Note: The Fed balance sheet stands at $6.74 trillion, up 0.16% week-over-week; M2 money supply reached $23.05 trillion, expanding 1.09% monthly. The net liquidity indicator rising to 5.96 signals a short-term easing impulse, though it remains below historical averages.
MACRO SCOREBOARD
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year)
Analyst Note: U.S. May CPI jumped sharply to 4.27% YoY while core CPI held at a more contained 2.96%. If Tuesday's June CPI fails to meet the 3.8% consensus, the Fed may adopt a hawkish stance at its July 29 FOMC meeting, potentially pressuring risk assets including crypto.
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
315.32 | ▼ -0.28% | ▲ +2.17% | ▲ +8.53% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
385.10 | ▲ +0.19% | ▼ -1.38% | ▼ -4.54% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
357.18 | ▼ -0.48% | ▼ -0.76% | ▼ -1.94% | |
AMZN Amazon |
245.34 | ▼ -0.69% | ▲ +1.10% | ▲ +0.47% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
210.96 | ▲ +4.03% | ▲ +8.28% | ▲ +1.33% | |
META Meta |
669.21 | ▲ +5.97% | ▲ +14.81% | ▲ +14.58% | |
TSLA Tesla |
407.76 | ▲ +0.30% | ▲ +3.64% | ▲ +2.79% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,113.70 | ▼ -0.41% | ▲ +0.02% | ▼ -3.43% | |
XAG Silver |
$60.17 | ▼ -0.35% | ▼ -0.79% | ▼ -7.57% | |
HG Copper |
$6.28 | ▲ +1.08% | ▲ +2.74% | ▼ -0.33% | |
NG Natural Gas |
$2.94 | ▼ -2.39% | ▼ -8.01% | ▼ -6.37% | |
CC Cocoa |
$6,100.00 | ▼ -3.31% | ▲ +23.26% | ▲ +59.23% | |
KC Coffee |
$318.60 | ▼ -10.74% | ▲ +0.93% | ▲ +30.36% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$76.01 | ▼ -0.38% | ▲ +5.86% | ▼ -16.88% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Materials
XLB
▲ +1.25%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +1.11%
Communication
XLC
▲ +1.02%
Utilities
XLU
▲ +0.62%
Real Estate
XLRE
▲ +0.50%
Energy
XLE
▲ +0.47%
Industrials
XLI
▲ +0.45%
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▲ +0.33%
Financials
XLF
▲ +0.31%
Technology
XLK
▲ +0.23%
Health Care
XLV
▼ -0.82%
BTC vs NDX vs GOLD (YTD Performance)
BTC (YTD: -27.7%)
NDX (YTD: +18.3%)
GOLD (YTD: -4.7%)
TURKEY DESK
CRYPTO DESK
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly)
Analyst Note: Total stablecoin supply is broadly flat near $308.8 billion, with USDT commanding 59.64% market share and USDC at 23.78%. Congress's CBDC ban preparations reinforce the long-term growth narrative for both players; USDC's monthly recovery is particularly noteworthy.
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-07-12
Weekly Total
+197.4M
IBIT (BlackRock)
+291.9M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-93.4M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows:
+84.3M · ETHA +53.7M · FETH +37.4M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$52.0B
Analyst Note: Spot BTC ETFs recorded +$197.4 million in net inflows this week; IBIT turned positive with +$291.9 million while FBTC saw -$93.4 million in outflows. Positive ETF flows can be read as an early signal of returning institutional buying pressure, but FBTC's continued outflows suggest full institutional consensus has not yet formed.
WINNERS & LOSERS OF THE WEEK
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$64,099.00 | ▼ -0.07% | ▼ -0.11% | ▲ +2.25% |
ETH |
$1,819.03 | ▼ -0.16% | ▼ -0.07% | ▲ +2.61% |
XRP |
$1.1000 | ▼ -0.10% | ▼ -0.92% | ▼ -3.07% |
SOL |
$77.4600 | ▲ +0.05% | ▼ -0.47% | ▼ -4.73% |
TRX |
$0.330999 | ▲ +0.01% | ▲ +0.05% | ▲ +0.76% |
HYPE |
$67.9100 | ▲ +0.38% | ▲ +1.27% | ▼ -1.93% |
DOGE |
$0.073511 | ▼ -0.16% | ▼ -2.04% | ▼ -4.42% |
LINK |
$8.0600 | ▲ +0.04% | ▲ +0.07% | ▲ +1.35% |
TON |
$1.6400 | ▼ -0.23% | ▼ -1.97% | ▼ -7.53% |
SUI |
$0.742055 | ▼ -0.37% | ▼ -0.04% | ▼ -1.48% |
HYPE RADAR
CoinGecko search trends — the coins the market is talking about this week. High hype ≠ buy signal; low-cap coins are extremely volatile.
CRYPTO SECTOR ROTATION
BITCOIN CYCLE PANEL
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
Analyst Note: Bitcoin is trading only 2% above its 200-week moving average at $62,870, with a Mayer Multiple of 0.868 — historically in accumulation territory. The -48.6% drawdown from ATH keeps the asset in deep correction territory, presenting an attractive entry window for long-term accumulators.
CORRELATION MATRIX
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
Analyst Note: BTC-Gold correlation holds at 0.475, while BTC-DXY correlation stands at a pronounced -0.483. The BTC-NDX correlation collapsing to 0.022 is notable: Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from equities and repositioning as an asset class closer to gold than to tech stocks.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.0776%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.052%
24h High
-0.173%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
| BTC Futures Basis | 0.00% |
| ETH Futures Basis | 0.00% |
7D Avg Funding Rates
| BTC 7D Avg | ▲ +0.0086% |
| ETH 7D Avg | ▲ +0.0165% |
Open Interest w/w Change
| BTC OI Change | 129.72M |
| ETH OI Change | 38.52M |
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
-5.77%
Call IV - Put IV (31JUL26)
Large Options Expirations
| Expiry Date | Total Notional | Max Pain Strike |
|---|---|---|
| 13JUL26 (13 Jul 2026) | $256.4M | $63,500 |
| 14JUL26 (14 Jul 2026) | $70.4M | $63,500 |
Analyst Note: BTC funding rate is a modest positive at 0.0086%, while ETH funding at 0.0165% is roughly double. The max pain level of $72,000 sits well above current spot; the July 13-14 options expirations represent a near-term volatility catalyst worth monitoring.
TOP STORIES
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CNBC · 14:58
Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market this weekThe state of the U.S. economy is in focus across bank earnings and inflation data.
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Reuters · 13:30
Trump says Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic - Reuters |
AI Insight: Trump's confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic acts as a brake on energy market risk premiums despite Brent crude's +5.9% weekly gain; this development limits the risk of energy-driven inflationary pressure, offering a marginally constructive backdrop for risk assets ahead of Tuesday's CPI print.
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CNBC · 12:10
I've studied more than 200 kids: Parents whose kids still confide in them as adults do 7 things early onAfter studying more than 200 parent-child relationships, parenting expert Reem Raouda shares the habits that help kids feel comfortable talking to their parents — from childhood through adulthood.
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Analyst Note: Trump's confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic reduces the geopolitical risk premium in energy markets, alleviating global supply chain concerns and creating a marginally positive backdrop for risk assets. The passing of former Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad warrants monitoring for any short-term shifts in Gulf region geopolitical dynamics.
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