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NOCASHFLOW
WEEKLY DEEP DIVEStrategic Liquidity, Macro Themes & Crypto Rotation
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Sun, Jul 26 2026
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NEUTRAL
Rising bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty anchor markets at a neutral equilibrium, while DeFi rotation and ETF flows signal selective optimism.
Markets faced macro headwinds this week as the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.70% and VIX rose to 18.7. Bitcoin traded sideways near $64,661 while ETH emerged as the strongest large-cap performer with a +21.4% 30-day gain. Spot BTC ETF flows barely turned positive at +$33.9M for the week, whereas ETH ETFs recorded a robust +$103.8M inflow. The most critical catalyst for the week ahead is the July 29 FOMC meeting, where the Fed's rate decision and forward guidance will set the tone for both crypto and equity markets.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · FOMC PRESSURE
The July 29 FOMC meeting is expected to keep rates steady at 3.75%, yet the 10-year Treasury yield surging to 4.70% is generating market anxiety. Elevated real yields (10Y real at 2.43%) continue to weigh on risk assets. The Fed's forward guidance will be especially critical given that CPI remains elevated at 4.27% and Core PCE stands at 3.41%, well above the 2% target.
THEME 2 · DEFI ROTATION
The most striking crypto move this week occurred in DeFi: UNI surged +11.2%, AAVE gained +8.2%, and LINK added +3.4% on a weekly basis, with the DeFi sector outperforming all others at +7.6%. This rotation suggests institutional capital is shifting from Layer 1 base layers to application-layer protocols, confirmed by UNI's remarkable +33.1% 30-day gain.
THEME 3 · GEOPOLITICAL RISK
A partial de-escalation in Iran-US tensions and Trump's diplomatic posturing provided marginal support for risk appetite; however, Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Red Sea oil infrastructure drove Brent crude up +9.85% on the week. Romania's interception of a third Russian drone underscores ongoing European geopolitical tensions. These developments supported safe-haven assets like gold and oil while leaving a limited direct impact on crypto markets.
NEXT WEEK
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Next FOMC
Wed (3 days away)
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Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
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| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul Tue | 17:00 | CB Consumer Confidence |
USD | 91.2 | 92.1 | — |
| 29 Jul Wed | 21:00 | Federal Funds Rate |
USD | 3.75% | 3.75% | — |
| 29 Jul Wed | 21:00 | FOMC Statement |
USD | — | — | — |
| 30 Jul Thu | 09:29 | German Prelim CPI MoM |
EUR | -0.3% | 0.7% | — |
| 30 Jul Thu | 11:00 | German Prelim GDP QoQ |
EUR | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 30 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Advance GDP QoQ |
USD | 2.0% | 2.3% | — |
| 30 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Core PCE Price Index MoM |
USD | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 30 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Advance GDP Price Index QoQ |
USD | 3.6% | 3.7% | — |
| 30 Jul Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 187K | 206K | — |
| 31 Jul Fri | 12:00 | Core CPI Flash Estimate YoY |
EUR | 2.4% | 2.4% | — |
| 31 Jul Fri | 12:00 | CPI Flash Estimate YoY |
EUR | 2.8% | 2.9% | — |
| 31 Jul Fri | 15:30 | Employment Cost Index QoQ |
USD | 0.9% | 0.8% | — |
| 31 Jul Fri | 17:00 | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
USD | 54.4 | 54.2 | — |
| 31 Jul Fri | 17:00 | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations |
USD | 4.2% | — | — |
Weekly Outlook & Strategy: The key focus for the coming week is the July 29 FOMC decision and the July 30 Advance GDP and Core PCE releases. A hawkish Fed tone or above-consensus inflation data could pressure BTC toward the $61,252 support level, while a dovish surprise could catalyze a move toward the $77,652 resistance.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly)
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly)
-0.552 (-0.013 w/w)
Above 0 = tighter-than-average conditions, below 0 = looser.
Analyst Note: The Fed balance sheet stands at $6.75T, up +$0.06T week-over-week, while M2 money supply expanded to $23.05T with a monthly growth of +1.09%. Net liquidity (WALCL) is tracking near $5.92T; conditions are broadly neutral but rising bond yields carry the potential to tighten net liquidity going forward.
MACRO SCOREBOARD
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year)
Analyst Note: US CPI reached 4.27% as of May 2026, the highest level in recent periods, while Core PCE sits at 3.41%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target. The July 30 Advance GDP and Core PCE releases (forecast: +0.1% MoM) will provide critical signals on the inflation trajectory.
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
321.66 | ▼ -1.30% | ▼ -3.48% | ▲ +9.30% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
381.58 | ▼ -2.24% | ▼ -4.87% | ▲ +2.04% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
317.69 | ▼ -7.13% | ▼ -10.37% | ▼ -8.22% | |
AMZN Amazon |
233.66 | ▼ -4.57% | ▼ -6.49% | ▼ -0.19% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
208.76 | ▼ -1.56% | ▲ +0.66% | ▲ +4.36% | |
META Meta |
606.10 | ▼ -3.36% | ▼ -8.79% | ▲ +7.81% | |
TSLA Tesla |
319.69 | ▼ -14.52% | ▼ -18.25% | ▼ -16.23% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,070.80 | ▲ +0.60% | ▲ +1.45% | ▲ +2.02% | |
XAG Silver |
$58.91 | ▲ +1.92% | ▲ +5.12% | ▲ +1.47% | |
HG Copper |
$6.36 | ▲ +0.83% | ▲ +2.21% | ▲ +6.97% | |
NG Natural Gas |
$2.89 | ▼ -0.96% | ▼ -0.79% | ▼ -10.34% | |
CC Cocoa |
$5,467.00 | ▲ +3.13% | ▼ -1.19% | ▲ +11.53% | |
KC Coffee |
$298.25 | ▼ -3.60% | ▼ -9.19% | ▲ +2.30% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$96.78 | ▼ -3.88% | ▲ +9.85% | ▲ +31.24% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Technology
XLK
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Financials
XLF
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Health Care
XLV
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Consumer Discret.
XLY
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Communication
XLC
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Industrials
XLI
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Consumer Staples
XLP
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Energy
XLE
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Utilities
XLU
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Real Estate
XLRE
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Materials
XLB
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BTC vs NDX vs GOLD (YTD Performance)
BTC (YTD: -27.1%)
NDX (YTD: +12.9%)
GOLD (YTD: -5.6%)
TURKEY DESK
CRYPTO DESK
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly)
Analyst Note: Total stablecoin supply remains stable near $256.6 billion, with USDT holding a 60.07% market share and USDC at 23.98%. The flat stablecoin supply suggests limited fresh capital inflows into the crypto market.
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-07-26
Weekly Total
+33.9M
IBIT (BlackRock)
-95.5M
FBTC (Fidelity)
+35.2M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows:
+103.8M · ETHA +96.3M · FETH -6.2M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$52.1B
Analyst Note: Spot BTC ETF weekly net flows turned marginally positive at +$33.9M, with IBIT recording -$95.5M in outflows offset by FBTC's +$35.2M inflow. ETH ETFs delivered a strong +$103.8M inflow this week, led by ETHA at +$96.3M, signaling rising institutional interest in Ethereum. While positive flows indicate buying pressure, cumulative BTC ETF assets appear to have stabilized near $52 billion.
WINNERS & LOSERS OF THE WEEK
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$64,661.00 | ● 0.00% | ▲ +0.80% | ▲ +0.30% |
ETH |
$1,913.44 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +2.60% | ▲ +2.40% |
XRP |
$1.1000 | ▼ -0.10% | ▲ +0.40% | ▲ +0.50% |
SOL |
$75.4200 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +1.80% | ▼ -0.90% |
TRX |
$0.332611 | ● 0.00% | ▲ +0.90% | ▲ +1.70% |
HYPE |
$59.3800 | ▲ +0.70% | ▲ +2.80% | ▼ -2.40% |
DOGE |
$0.072965 | ● 0.00% | ▲ +2.40% | ▲ +0.90% |
LINK |
$8.6000 | ▲ +0.70% | ▲ +2.90% | ▲ +3.40% |
TON |
$1.5100 | ▼ -0.30% | ▲ +3.40% | ▲ +5.30% |
SUI |
$0.715054 | ▼ -0.10% | ▲ +1.00% | ▼ -4.30% |
HYPE RADAR
CoinGecko search trends — the coins the market is talking about this week. High hype ≠ buy signal; low-cap coins are extremely volatile.
CRYPTO SECTOR ROTATION
BITCOIN CYCLE PANEL
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
Analyst Note: Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple stands at 0.896, below 1.0, historically indicating fair-to-undervalued territory. The 200-week moving average is at $63,324 with the current price only 2.09% above it. The -48.18% drawdown from ATH suggests BTC remains in the early-to-mid phase of its current cycle.
CORRELATION MATRIX
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
Analyst Note: The BTC-Gold correlation strengthened to 0.591 while the BTC-NDX correlation fell to 0.281, suggesting Bitcoin is decoupling from tech equities and moving closer to the digital gold narrative. The persistent negative BTC-DXY correlation (-0.429) means dollar strength will continue to act as a headwind for crypto.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.1003%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.042%
24h High
-0.123%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
| BTC Futures Basis | — |
| ETH Futures Basis | — |
7D Avg Funding Rates
| BTC 7D Avg | ▼ -0.0009% |
| ETH 7D Avg | ▲ +0.0141% |
Open Interest w/w Change
| BTC OI Change | 140.10M |
| ETH OI Change | 47.60M |
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
-3.63%
Call IV - Put IV (31JUL26)
Large Options Expirations
| Expiry Date | Total Notional | Max Pain Strike |
|---|---|---|
| 27JUL26 (27 Jul 2026) | $176.0M | $65,000 |
| 28JUL26 (28 Jul 2026) | $108.7M | $65,000 |
Analyst Note: BTC funding rates are slightly negative at -0.0009, indicating modest short-side dominance and confirming the absence of excessive leverage in the market. SOL's funding rate of +0.50 is notably elevated, flagging potential overleveraged long positioning. The max pain price at $70,000 remains above current spot levels.
TOP STORIES
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Reuters · 14:50
Iran will halt attacks as long as US maintains pause, Iranian source says after Trump calls off strikes - Reuters |
AI Insight: Iran's announcement that it will halt attacks as long as the US maintains its strike pause reduces immediate Mideast tension, but the structural uncertainty persists; this supports the continuation of elevated oil prices (Brent +9.85% weekly) and keeps the geopolitical risk premium alive in energy markets.
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Reuters · 14:42
Trump is giving Iran talks 'a little bit of room,' US ambassador to UN says - Reuters |
AI Insight: Trump's diplomatic language of giving Iran talks 'a little bit of room' signals open channels but falls short of a structural resolution, implying cautious near-term optimism for risk assets rather than a durable rally catalyst.
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CNBC · 14:06
How AI wealth could be distributed to all AmericansAI riches are already concentrated among a handful of powerful companies, but there are plenty of new, some radical, ideas about how to spread the wealth.
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AI Insight: The debate around distributing AI wealth broadly aligns with the underperformance of AI tokens (RENDER -0.3% 7D) this week amid the DeFi rotation; the concentration of AI revenues among a handful of firms could structurally increase demand for decentralized AI infrastructure over the long term.
Analyst Note: The partial Iran-US de-escalation provides marginal near-term support for risk appetite, but Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and Russian drone incursions into Romania keep the geopolitical risk premium elevated. These developments sustain upward pressure on oil prices, which could feed into inflation and further constrain the Fed's policy flexibility.
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