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NOCASHFLOW
WEEKLY DEEP DIVEStrategic Liquidity, Macro Themes & Crypto Rotation
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Sun, Aug 2 2026
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NEUTRAL
Rising bond yields and weakening labor market signals keep crypto and equities in a directionless search for footing.
Markets traded in a NEUTRAL regime this week: BTC ~$63,113 lost 2.5% on a weekly basis while struggling to hold just below its 200-week moving average (~$63,547). The US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.74% and structural weakness signals in the labor market continued to weigh on risk appetite. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned slightly negative at a net -$61.5M this week, with IBIT positive and FBTC negative diverging. The most critical catalyst for the coming week is Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release; the 88K consensus forecast will directly shape Fed rate cut expectations.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · YIELD PRESSURE
The US 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 4.74%, a level that constitutes a significant headwind for both risk assets and crypto. The 2s10s spread widening to 51 basis points reflects market concerns about long-term inflation and borrowing costs. With the real 10-year yield holding at 2.41%, valuation pressure is unlikely to ease in the near term.
THEME 2 · LABOR FRAGILITY
Declining labor force participation and workers dropping out of job searches point to structural fragility beneath the surface of headline employment data. Next week's NFP (consensus: 88K), JOLTS, and ADP readings could reprice expectations for the Fed's September FOMC meeting (45 days away). A weak NFP could pull forward rate cut expectations, serving as a short-term catalyst for crypto.
THEME 3 · MEGA-CAP DIVERGENCE
A sharp divergence emerged within the Mag-7: Amazon surged +17% on the week as the standout performer while Apple shed 7.2%. Microsoft (+21.7%) and Alphabet (+11.4%) also posted strong weekly gains. This split signals that earnings season is rewarding AI and cloud spending while selectively pressuring hardware and consumer-facing businesses.
NEXT WEEK
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Next FOMC
Wed (45 days away)
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Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
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| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug Mon | 17:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
USD | 53.3 | 54.0 | — |
| 04 Aug Tue | 17:00 | JOLTS Job Openings |
USD | 7.59M | 7.42M | — |
| 05 Aug Wed | 15:15 | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
USD | 98K | 71K | — |
| 05 Aug Wed | 17:00 | ISM Services PMI |
USD | 54.0 | 54.5 | — |
| 06 Aug Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 197K | 205K | — |
| 07 Aug Fri | 15:30 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM |
USD | 0.3% | 0.3% | — |
| 07 Aug Fri | 15:30 | Non-Farm Employment Change |
USD | 57K | 88K | — |
| 07 Aug Fri | 15:30 | Unemployment Rate |
USD | 4.2% | 4.2% | — |
Weekly Outlook & Strategy: Friday's NFP release (consensus: 88K, prior: 57K) will be decisive for markets next week. A stronger-than-expected print could push back Fed rate cut expectations and bring the $60,477 BTC support level into play; a weak print could pull forward easing expectations and trigger a move toward the $65,000-$67,000 resistance zone. ISM PMI and JOLTS data earlier in the week may also set early directional cues.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly)
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly)
-0.554 (-0.010 w/w)
Above 0 = tighter-than-average conditions, below 0 = looser.
Analyst Note: The Fed balance sheet stands at $6.74T, declining -$0.14T on a weekly basis; however, M2 money supply continues to expand at $23.16T, up +$0.43T month-over-month. The net liquidity index (5.83T) is approaching its lowest levels in recent weeks, creating a short-term headwind for crypto.
MACRO SCOREBOARD
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year)
Analyst Note: June 2026 CPI at 3.73% shows a slowing trend from the April peak of 4.27%, but remains well above the Fed's 2% target. Core PCE at 3.29% maintains its stickiness, making it difficult for the Fed to cut rates at the September FOMC meeting.
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
308.91 | ▼ -7.35% | ▼ -7.24% | ▲ +4.94% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
464.72 | ▲ +3.02% | ▲ +21.75% | ▲ +20.93% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
356.13 | ▲ +6.73% | ▲ +11.38% | ▼ -1.41% | |
AMZN Amazon |
271.58 | ▲ +15.32% | ▲ +17.00% | ▲ +12.36% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
200.75 | ▲ +2.93% | ▼ -2.94% | ▲ +1.60% | |
META Meta |
556.71 | ▲ +3.28% | ▼ -6.47% | ▼ -9.17% | |
TSLA Tesla |
311.21 | ▲ +0.76% | ▼ -0.58% | ▼ -26.83% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,107.00 | ▲ +0.17% | ▲ +0.97% | ▲ +0.95% | |
XAG Silver |
$57.79 | ▼ -1.75% | ▼ -1.48% | ▼ -3.83% | |
HG Copper |
$6.47 | ▲ +0.33% | ▲ +2.30% | ▲ +5.59% | |
NG Natural Gas |
$2.75 | ▼ -0.40% | ▼ -4.32% | ▼ -14.69% | |
CC Cocoa |
$5,537.00 | ▲ +8.31% | ▲ +2.99% | ▲ +10.61% | |
KC Coffee |
$313.55 | ▼ -2.94% | ▼ -0.08% | ▼ -3.31% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$90.12 | ▲ +1.22% | ▼ -6.88% | ▲ +25.92% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▲ +3.29%
Communication
XLC
▲ +1.56%
Energy
XLE
▲ +1.00%
Industrials
XLI
▲ +0.81%
Financials
XLF
▼ -0.11%
Technology
XLK
▼ -0.22%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▼ -0.49%
Real Estate
XLRE
▼ -0.51%
Health Care
XLV
▼ -0.59%
Utilities
XLU
▼ -0.69%
Materials
XLB
▼ -2.34%
BTC vs NDX vs GOLD (YTD Performance)
BTC (YTD: -28.9%)
NDX (YTD: +12.2%)
GOLD (YTD: -4.8%)
TURKEY DESK
CRYPTO DESK
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly)
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-08-02
Weekly Total
-61.5M
IBIT (BlackRock)
+86.9M
FBTC (Fidelity)
-85.2M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows:
+10.0M · ETHA +36.6M · FETH -20.9M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$52.0B
Analyst Note: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of -$61.5M this week; IBIT diverged positively at +$86.9M while FBTC faced selling pressure at -$85.2M. Positive flows signal institutional buying pressure while negative flows indicate selling pressure; IBIT's resilience suggests institutional demand remains alive, but the overall negative total warrants caution.
WINNERS & LOSERS OF THE WEEK
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$63,113.00 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +0.40% | ▼ -2.50% |
ETH |
$1,861.49 | ▲ +0.30% | ▼ -0.40% | ▼ -2.70% |
XRP |
$1.0800 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +1.70% | ▼ -2.10% |
SOL |
$73.1000 | ▲ +0.20% | ▲ +0.50% | ▼ -3.10% |
TRX |
$0.327440 | ▲ +0.10% | ▼ -0.20% | ▼ -1.60% |
HYPE |
$52.1100 | ▲ +1.70% | ▼ -0.30% | ▼ -11.60% |
DOGE |
$0.070282 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +0.30% | ▼ -3.80% |
LINK |
$8.2800 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +2.20% | ▼ -3.70% |
TON |
$1.4100 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +1.30% | ▼ -7.00% |
AVAX |
$6.5700 | ▼ -0.10% | ▲ +3.30% | ▼ -1.60% |
HYPE RADAR
CoinGecko search trends — the coins the market is talking about this week. High hype ≠ buy signal; low-cap coins are extremely volatile.
CRYPTO SECTOR ROTATION
BITCOIN CYCLE PANEL
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
CORRELATION MATRIX
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
Analyst Note: BTC-NDX correlation at 0.53 is moderate, while BTC-Gold correlation at 0.55 is notably elevated. This confirms BTC's dual identity as both a risk asset and a store of value. DXY's -0.29 negative correlation with BTC confirms that dollar strengthening continues to create headwinds for crypto.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.0886%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.042%
24h High
-0.138%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
| BTC Futures Basis | — |
| ETH Futures Basis | — |
7D Avg Funding Rates
| BTC 7D Avg | ▲ +0.0092% |
| ETH 7D Avg | ▲ +0.0199% |
Open Interest w/w Change
| BTC OI Change | 120.03M |
| ETH OI Change | 43.67M |
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
-5.30%
Call IV - Put IV (28AUG26)
Large Options Expirations
| Expiry Date | Total Notional | Max Pain Strike |
|---|---|---|
| 3AUG26 (03 Aug 2026) | $123.1M | $63,500 |
| 4AUG26 (04 Aug 2026) | $66.1M | $63,000 |
Analyst Note: BTC funding rate is a mild positive at +0.0092%; ETH funding at +0.0199% appears more heated. SOL funding at -0.50% is significantly negative, indicating net short positioning in SOL. On the options side, DVOL at 35.25 is at moderate levels; a put/call ratio of 0.53 maintains a slight bullish lean. Max pain at $70,000 sits well above current spot prices.
TOP STORIES
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CNBC · 15:36
Here are the 2 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadFour more Club holdings report earnings. Plus, it's a loaded week of jobs data.
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CNBC · 14:30
Why people are dropping out of the workforce and not looking for new jobs: 'The market wore me down'Candidates giving up in the face of relentless job searches could be part of the reason behind recent declines in the labor force participation rate.
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AI Insight: Declining labor force participation signals structural weakness hidden beneath headline unemployment figures, adding uncertainty to whether next week's NFP will meet market expectations. For crypto investors, a weak NFP could serve as a short-term catalyst if it opens the door to a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
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CNBC · 12:30
Op-ed: The U.S. lead over China in AI is all but goneAI debate in recent years has centered on whether the U.S. can develop a strategy capable of preserving an edge over China. The answer isn't looking positive.
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AI Insight: The risk of the US losing its AI edge over China could challenge the valuation premium on tech stocks; this dynamic may add further pressure on NVDA and AI-focused crypto tokens (RENDER, -7.4% weekly). Longer term, intensifying AI competition could negatively impact institutional interest in decentralized compute tokens.
Analyst Note: This week's news highlighted three critical macro themes: structural fragility in the labor market, shifting dynamics in the US-China AI competition, and high fuel costs contributing to inflation persistence. The combination of these three dynamics raises the risk of the Fed maintaining a tighter policy stance for longer, sustaining pressure on risk assets.
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