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NOCASHFLOW
WEEKLY DEEP DIVEStrategic Liquidity, Macro Themes & Crypto Rotation
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Sun, Aug 9 2026
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NEUTRAL
Mixed macro signals and selective risk appetite keep markets balanced and searching for direction.
The week produced a split picture between US rates and geopolitical risks. Bitcoin gained 3.4% to $65,210, while Ethereum rose 3.9%; total crypto market capitalization increased only 0.23% over 24 hours. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $865.3 million of weekly inflows and Ethereum ETFs added $243.7 million, signaling a clear recovery in institutional demand. The key catalyst next week is US inflation, with forecasts of 3.4% headline CPI and 2.5% core CPI year over year.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · SELECTIVE RECOVERY
Bitcoin and Ethereum rose 3.4% and 3.9% respectively, while Solana outperformed with a 5.9% gain. Losses in XRP, TON and JUP show that buying remains selective rather than a broad-based risk rally.
THEME 2 · ETF FLOWS
Combined IBIT and FBTC inflows of $865.3 million reversed the previous week's $61.5 million outflow and point to stronger institutional demand. Ethereum ETF inflows of $243.7 million also broadened the recovery across major assets.
THEME 3 · MACRO BALANCE
A 0.37% decline in DXY, a VIX reading of 14.9 and a 13-basis-point tightening in high-yield spreads support risk assets. However, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 1.67%, while moves in gold and oil show that geopolitical and inflation risks remain active.
NEXT WEEK
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Next FOMC
Wed (38 days away)
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Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
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| Date | Time (TRT) | Event | Country | Prev | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug Wed | 15:30 | Core CPI MoM |
USD | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| 12 Aug Wed | 15:30 | Core CPI YoY |
USD | 2.6% | 2.5% | — |
| 12 Aug Wed | 15:30 | CPI MoM |
USD | -0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 12 Aug Wed | 15:30 | CPI YoY |
USD | 3.5% | 3.4% | — |
| 13 Aug Thu | 15:30 | Core PPI MoM |
USD | 0.2% | 0.3% | — |
| 13 Aug Thu | 15:30 | PPI MoM |
USD | -0.3% | 0.2% | — |
| 13 Aug Thu | 15:30 | Unemployment Claims |
USD | 199K | 202K | — |
| 14 Aug Fri | 15:30 | Core Retail Sales MoM |
USD | -0.2% | 0.2% | — |
| 14 Aug Fri | 15:30 | Retail Sales MoM |
USD | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 14 Aug Fri | 17:00 | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
USD | 54.4 | 54.4 | — |
| 14 Aug Fri | 17:00 | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations |
USD | 4.2% | — | — |
Weekly Outlook & Strategy: The base case for next week is choppy, selective trading between support at $61,528 and resistance at $74,053 ahead of CPI. A downside CPI surprise could help Bitcoin target $70,000 alongside ETF inflows, while an upside surprise could pressure risk appetite through the dollar and Treasury yields.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly)
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly)
-0.529 (+0.001 w/w)
Above 0 = tighter-than-average conditions, below 0 = looser.
Analyst Note: The Fed balance sheet rose 0.15% weekly to $6.75 trillion, while net liquidity increased to $5.840 trillion; the pace remains too modest to represent a powerful liquidity impulse. M2 reached $23.16 trillion after growing 0.43% monthly, providing medium-term support while keeping the near-term liquidity picture neutral.
MACRO SCOREBOARD
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year)
Analyst Note: June CPI stood at 3.73% year over year, core CPI at 2.81% and core PCE at 3.29%; disinflation remains uneven. The August 12 CPI release, forecast at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, will shape expectations for future rate cuts.
EQUITIES & COMMODITIES
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAPL Apple |
313.33 | ▲ +0.29% | ▲ +1.43% | ▼ -0.91% | |
MSFT Microsoft |
499.99 | ▲ +0.03% | ▲ +7.59% | ▲ +30.08% | |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) |
354.30 | ▼ -0.96% | ▼ -0.51% | ▼ -1.28% | |
AMZN Amazon |
274.48 | ▲ +0.82% | ▲ +1.07% | ▲ +11.11% | |
NVDA NVIDIA |
223.96 | ▲ +2.27% | ▲ +11.56% | ▲ +10.44% | |
META Meta |
592.10 | ▲ +0.37% | ▲ +6.36% | ▼ -6.24% | |
TSLA Tesla |
328.58 | ▲ +2.83% | ▲ +5.58% | ▼ -19.18% |
| Asset | Price | 24H | 7D | 30D | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAU Gold |
$4,399.70 | ▲ +3.72% | ▲ +8.66% | ▲ +6.51% | |
XAG Silver |
$63.50 | ▲ +3.35% | ▲ +10.26% | ▲ +5.17% | |
HG Copper |
$6.59 | ▼ -1.44% | ▲ +2.41% | ▲ +6.05% | |
NG Natural Gas |
$2.66 | ▲ +0.83% | ▼ -3.09% | ▼ -11.62% | |
CC Cocoa |
$5,847.00 | ▲ +1.23% | ▲ +8.34% | ▼ -7.32% | |
KC Coffee |
$313.65 | ▼ -2.49% | ▼ -5.56% | ▼ -12.13% | |
BZ Brent Oil |
$83.55 | ▲ +1.29% | ▼ -7.29% | ▲ +9.50% |
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Discret.
XLY
▲ +1.49%
Technology
XLK
▲ +1.42%
Materials
XLB
▲ +1.32%
Health Care
XLV
▲ +0.75%
Utilities
XLU
▲ +0.53%
Real Estate
XLRE
▲ +0.38%
Industrials
XLI
▲ +0.23%
Communication
XLC
▲ +0.06%
Consumer Staples
XLP
▲ +0.01%
Financials
XLF
▼ -0.36%
Energy
XLE
▼ -1.13%
BTC vs NDX vs GOLD (YTD Performance)
BTC (YTD: -26.5%)
NDX (YTD: +17.9%)
GOLD (YTD: +2.0%)
TURKEY DESK
CRYPTO DESK
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly)
Analyst Note: Total stablecoin supply rose to $306.22 billion, while the 24-hour change was effectively flat at -0.004%. USDT remains dominant at $183.10 billion and a 59.79% share, versus USDC at $72.21 billion and 23.58%, leaving the market-share contest firmly tilted toward USDT for now.
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-08-09
Weekly Total
+865.3M
IBIT (BlackRock)
+693.5M
FBTC (Fidelity)
+116.5M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows:
+243.7M · ETHA +203.0M · FETH +24.2M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$52.9B
Analyst Note: IBIT attracted $693.5 million and FBTC $116.5 million during the week; the combined positive flow of $865.3 million represents direct buying pressure and stronger institutional demand. ETHA and FETH also recorded $243.7 million of inflows, showing that institutional interest extends beyond Bitcoin; negative flows should conversely be interpreted as selling pressure.
WINNERS & LOSERS OF THE WEEK
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
| Asset | Price | 1H | 24H | 7D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC |
$65,210.00 | ● 0.00% | ▲ +0.20% | ▲ +3.40% |
ETH |
$1,923.51 | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +0.20% | ▲ +3.90% |
XRP |
$1.0440 | ▲ +0.20% | ▼ -0.10% | ▼ -3.50% |
SOL |
$77.2500 | ▲ +0.60% | ▲ +1.00% | ▲ +5.90% |
TRX |
$0.329608 | ● 0.00% | ▲ +0.40% | ▲ +0.70% |
HYPE |
$54.8100 | ▲ +0.40% | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +6.70% |
DOGE |
$0.070642 | ▲ +0.30% | ▼ -0.80% | ▲ +0.30% |
LINK |
$8.3400 | ▲ +0.50% | ▼ -0.20% | ▲ +0.70% |
TON |
$1.3400 | ▲ +0.30% | ▼ -1.60% | ▼ -4.60% |
SUI |
$0.703071 | ▲ +0.40% | ▲ +0.10% | ▲ +1.70% |
HYPE RADAR
CoinGecko search trends — the coins the market is talking about this week. High hype ≠ buy signal; low-cap coins are extremely volatile.
CRYPTO SECTOR ROTATION
BITCOIN CYCLE PANEL
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
Analyst Note: Bitcoin at $65,207 is only 2.24% above its 200-week moving average of $63,778; the Mayer multiple is 0.93 and the drawdown from the all-time high is 47.73%. These readings do not indicate long-term overvaluation, but the bearish 4-hour trend and Coinbase premium of -0.076% warn that the recovery lacks full confirmation.
CORRELATION MATRIX
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
Analyst Note: Bitcoin's 0.474 correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and 0.558 correlation with gold show that it is influenced by both growth assets and alternative safe-haven demand. Its -0.324 correlation with DXY and -0.263 correlation with the US 10-year yield make the dollar and real-rate backdrop critical for direction.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.0757%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.042%
24h High
-0.138%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
| BTC Futures Basis | — |
| ETH Futures Basis | — |
7D Avg Funding Rates
| BTC 7D Avg | ▲ +0.0039% |
| ETH 7D Avg | ▼ -0.0064% |
Open Interest w/w Change
| BTC OI Change | 150.55M |
| ETH OI Change | 51.80M |
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
-3.06%
Call IV - Put IV (28AUG26)
Large Options Expirations
| Expiry Date | Total Notional | Max Pain Strike |
|---|---|---|
| 10AUG26 (10 Aug 2026) | $178.4M | $65,000 |
| 11AUG26 (11 Aug 2026) | $52.8M | $65,000 |
Analyst Note: BTC funding is mildly positive at 0.0039%, while ETH funding is negative at -0.0064%, suggesting that leveraged positioning is not excessively one-sided. BTC options show a 0.575 put/call ratio, a $70,000 max-pain level and a -3.06% 25-day risk reversal, implying upside potential but continued demand for protection.
TOP STORIES
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Reuters · 13:59
Iran says Oman deal is in 'final stages' but US must act to open Hormuz - Reuters |
AI Insight: The report that Iran-Oman talks are in their final stages raises the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing energy-supply risk, although the required US action remains uncertain. The geopolitical discount is therefore not fully removed, especially ahead of next week's CPI release.
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CNBC · 13:11
Here are the 2 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market's attention will be on July inflation data.
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AI Insight: This item is a broad market watchlist rather than a distinct news development, so no additional insight is provided.
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Reuters · 13:09
Syria and Russia reach deal on future of Tartous and Hmeimim bases after 18 months of talks - Reuters |
AI Insight: The agreement on the future of the Tartous and Hmeimim bases could institutionalize Russia's military presence in Syria and alter the Eastern Mediterranean balance. Its market relevance is indirect, operating mainly through energy, geopolitical risk premia and safe-haven demand rather than as a direct crypto catalyst.
Analyst Note: Developments involving Hormuz, Gaza and Russian-Syrian military bases keep energy-supply and geopolitical risk premia elevated. Brent rose to $83.55 but fell 7.29% on the week, suggesting that markets are pricing headline risk without yet confirming a lasting supply shock.
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